Polaris solar PV net news: author study on photovoltaic industry soon, but now is deeply in love with the industry, this is a great industry, and will also have a great company, as recent media reports said “the next Ma” will appear in the new energy industry.
After communicating with many people, everyone’s views on photovoltaic can boil down to several points:
1. This is a manufacturing 2. quality not 3. subsidies 4. wind, which is no atmosphere, 5. threshold is low, competition is fierce
These problems are 07-08 ideas.
Insiders predict PV will usher in a new chapter in the second half of this year. Today, the author mainly want to explore with you the downstream plant stuff, hoping to draw out, learning together.
Construction cost: 750 million RMB (calculated according to 8yilai)
Average yearly power generation hours: 1460 hours (average sunshine time is 4 hours)
Income from electricity sales: 0.9
Loan 70%: 7.5*0.7=5.3 million RMB
Loan interest rate: 7%
Decay rate of equipment: 1%
Operating costs: calculated on a total investment of 1%
Income tax: 15%
So for the first year after incorporation as follows:
Income * income * year power hours = kilowatt installed capacity of =0.9*100*1460=135000=1.32 million RMB
Operation cost = capital cost of *1%=7.5*1%=0.075 billion
Depreciation of 20 =7.5/20=0.375 billion
Loan interest =5.3*0.07=0.371 billion
15%= income tax expenditure (revenue-operating costs-depreciation-interest) *15%=0.075 million
Net profit = revenues-operating costs-used-for-loan interest income =1.32-0.075-0.375-0.371-0.075=0.424 million
Cash flow = net income-income tax-operating costs-loan interest =1.32-0.075-0.371-0.075=0.80 billion
If funds are for the construction of their own, do not raise loans, as follows:
15%= income tax expenditure (revenue-operating costs-depreciation) *15%=0.13 million
Net profit = revenues-operating costs-remove old-income tax = 74 million
Cash flow = net income-income tax-operating cost = 111.5 million
This is the first year of data, because the power plant after the completion of, as long as there is electricity generation, would have a steady stream of income, cash flow will be very good, taking into account the attenuation factors and the rate of interest per annum, the next evolution of annual data in the following table:
Last show that 20 years, 100MW power station will bring:
1, 931 million net profit, or 1.691 billion of net cash flows (financing under 70%)
2, 1.262 billion net profit or 2.021 billion of net cash flows (full case of own funds)
Average annual net profit and cash flow are as follows:
1, 46.5 million net profit, or 84.5 million of net cash flows (financing under 70%)
2, 63.1 million net profit, or 101 million of net cash flows (full case of own funds)
That is according to the present circumstances, investing in a photovoltaic plant, recycled cycles in 7-8, there are more than 10 years left a stream of cash flows, this is the greatness of energy companies.
With the conversion upgrade (it is understood polycrystalline conversion rate is hard to have much of a breakthrough, future upgrade or watch crystal), lower construction costs, payback period will be reduced to 6-7.
As an energy company, 6-7 can return, very tempting, it’s no wonder many bigwigs now mad shopping layout of PV power plant, for example, Shi Yuzhu, evergrande had begun, such as layouts.
Original title: simply calculate the PV of payments and cash flow