Polaris solar PV net news: “2014 PV leader branch” held in Beijing in September 11-12th. At the meeting, Li junfeng, Director of the renewable energy professional Committee of Chinese circular economy Association hosted “dialogue of business leaders: the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry,” battle on crystalline silicon and thin film in question GCL Shu Hua, the Chief Executive and Chief Technology Officer of Yingli Song Dengyuan Dr. In Shu Hua’s view, than from the comprehensive price point of view, can be applied to the commercialization of photovoltaic technology, is still going to be SI technology in the future. Song Dengyuan believes that films cannot reduce costs in the short term, and amorphous silicon solar cell cost can be accepted by the market, quite a long time in the future, crystalline silicon solar power mainstream.
Moderator Li junfeng: back to our question, Shu Hua investment polysilicon has spent a lot of energy, invested tens of billions of now, thin film amorphous silicon solar cell and solar cell how to look at the future competition, trends look like? Wait one more time Song Dengyuan added.
Shu Hua: Director referred to Lee’s problem is the PV industry’s hot topics and controversial issues, everyone in the study of crystalline silicon solar cells and thin-film batteries, including other photovoltaic technology development, we are very much concerned about. Unquestionable terms, any of the modes of generation, particularly the solar energy as a power mode, all along with the progress of science and technology, continuous development. Crystalline silicon solar module-end conversion efficiency to 13%, or even lower, and early stages of development, today conversion efficiency is more than 23%, 24%. After more than a decade of development, SI in rapid development, conversion efficiency improvement, thin-film technology as solar power technology is growing. In general terms, today and in the future for a fairly long time, still occupy the solar power mainstream Silicon power generation technology, more than 50% technology uses amorphous silicon solar power technology. Original-most material quality, polysilicon manufacturing, 7 to 9 in the past can be applied to solar polycrystalline silicon, long-term commitment to scientific research, the majority of solar technology. We are a supplier of polysilicon production, I have 12GW wafer supply and use Crystal rose crystal silicon technology, improve conversion efficiency. In addition to components, battery technology, for the whole system to improve power conversion efficiency and, more importantly, in terms of polysilicon and rose Crystal technology upgrade. Thin-film technology to enhance, to solve the conversion efficiency and service life, had its application market, particularly with regard to future integration in construction, in which part of the given market, thin film technology also has its advantages. With further development of future silicon technology and conversion efficiency of crystalline silicon technologies have more than 23% to 25% per cent, alternative to crystalline silicon technology, and comprehensive price point of view, can be applied to the commercialization of photovoltaic technology, is still going to be SI technology in the future.
From polysilicon manufacturing links, poly Association Xin in Siemens method of process technology cost aspects has down 14 dollars following, this months and next months is products referrals FB2 of particles silicon, cost will in 8 dollars following, such a Silicon cost of fast declined, again plus we in rose Crystal technology and wafer cutting technology aspects upgrade, and will for downstream battery manufacturing process provides efficiency contribution and cost contribution, this will will for we whole global commercialization of expanded, PV Application market provides we of cost advantage and technology advantage. So this point we of progress is quite of fast, so I wants to may future soon also will produced except film yiwai, like light hot power, other application solar of power technology, but in recently, and future quite long a time within, to with crystal silicon technology, and crystal silicon efficiency growth and cost and parity Internet, and national Government subsidies, into households, market application situation view, has became mainstream.
Song Dengyuan: everyone afternoon good, talked about crystal silicon film, also has other technology, concentrated battery, and calcium titanium mine technology are is parallel of technology route, from development view, most important which more can close now user can accept of, is degrees electric cost, in market Shang has compared good of performance, especially PV industry, has point and other industry, including real networking, including car, has a different points can’t than of, PV industry it of efficiency to high, also has very important of Red is cost, from theory, this technology good, But unable to scale production. Director Li, Apple iPhone, for example, Apple, $ 5,000, many bosses are willing to buy, no doubt. PV window, PV efficiency alone 20%, 80% I can do, it is assumed that theoretically, Lee and I said me 80% this is the world’s most advanced technology, 1000 dollars of electricity costs, Li said, I don’t buy it. I said I wasn’t as high, 2%, organic batteries, paint does not require high temperatures, high vacuum, the cost is 20 cents, with Director of marketing Lee, saying this is good, nothing lights can light up on the line. Solar essence cost as the first renewable energy technologies.
For now, technology is very large, daily birth of so many new technologies from the lab, but will actually get on industrialization, be accepted by the market, at present in the market very clear. Qian years, probably 2009 years of when, film battery, because crystal silicon very your, 500 dollars, see front of King Secretary-General PPT,500 dollars cost of film battery, United States relative cost low some, probably overall 2009 market share, film accounted for to has 16% around, 83% is crystal silicon, crystal silicon return itself value, 400 dollars return to 50 dollars, and 30 dollars, and 20 dollars. Meanwhile, its technical efficiency, resulting in crystalline silicon and thin film development and faster than thin-film, lead to lower cost per kilowatt, and that was reflected in market is obvious. After 2009, the five-year time, the film’s share of the market, more and more small, crystalline silicon is increasing. 2013 statistical data, thin film accounted for slightly more than 9%, SI accounted for close to 91%, SI this year increased by 92%, thin film solar cell 8%. For any technology, due to many technical courses in order to create the technical diversity, creating a competitive, can push costs down. Key question is which technology to quickly bring down the cost, that is, for each kW of PV modules into the system, per unit costs down so the markets behave well.
Of course there is a connection, for some batteries to, applications may have some, relatively speaking, may be more suitable for some. Do flexible thin film solar cell, regardless of the traffic transformer or more widely used in the market. What we are discussing now, PV technology development is the most important material support, planning, 1%, PV 20GW, installation 11GW,2015 new year than 35GW States now do the “Thirteen-Five” plan, 2030, 2050 plan, China’s 2030 300GW,2050 years to 1000GW, accounting for about 11% the entire power planning. Material supply issues is a very important issue, because only the amount of crystalline silicon in Earth’s crust 27.1%, inexhaustible, inexhaustible, as with the Sun, Earth’s crust is silicon. Close to millions of tons of polycrystalline silicon, and into other materials, materials for thin film solar cell, no matter, gallium, indium, dysprosium, chromium, are very rare elements on the Earth’s crust, one out of 10,000, in particular indium and more for aerospace materials. Material support, SI: some time in the future, without major technological breakthroughs, so far, I don’t see, but also in a very long time domination. Thank you all!
Moderator Li junfeng: raising this question because recently there are many arguments for thin-film cells, amorphous silicon solar cell, I not generalize, these two technologies are photovoltaic industry booming technology, has moved on, there is competition, there is progress, but are not mutually exclusive. Is true for any industry requires a courage to enter, it needs courage to quit.