Polaris solar PV net news: distributed policy last week, and the PV sector’s share price spiked down indications, the market may interpret policies as positive cash, but we think this is the big round of price-volume Qi Sheng, main points are as follows:
1, policy release distributed in a disguised form, we raised the annual installed capacity reached 15GW
Market will distributed policy interpretation into meet expected, and we is think, distributed policy great mystery, core is will defines expanded and indicators release, such will led to annual installed volume Super expected; defines expanded: policy provides using abandoned land, and mountain shortage Po, and agricultural big shed, and beach, and ponds, and Lake, construction, and to 35,000 v and the following voltage grade access grid (Northeast 66,000 v and the following), and single project capacity not over 20MW and by electricity main in and dot variable radio district elimination na of PV station project To include distributed PV scale target management, implementing new benchmark local PV price (known as distributed on the ground); index opening: policy provides for all kinds of spontaneous use of distributed solar power projects are under construction scale indicator limit, provincial energy departments should adjust in a timely manner to resolve or to apply to the National Energy Board up-scale indicators.
The effect on the operational level are: distributed due to the roof (spontaneous mainly for personal use) does not limit (because scale can be appended to indexes) that local governments could use the land distributed to level of the original distributed application, which is in effect provided a lot of the ground and distributed. At present, we have observed in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui and other places have been launched under 20MW distributed ground and flexibility of the policy has been applied flexibly, the installed capacity of the eastern provinces will exceed the 6 Department of energy planning at the beginning (ground) +8 (distributed) guidelines.
In addition, we expect places like Xinjiang, Qinghai, Hebei is expected to be extra flagging, extra quantities or in southern Xinjiang is expected to reach 700MW, more than 600MW in the industry expected, Qinghai is expected or send Super 770MW, exceeds previous media reports the amount of 1.22GW, authentic flagging could keep a extra ground power station.
Based on this, we hiked the annual installed capacity, up from 13GW 15GW, the main areas of growth are distributed on the ground. 3GW installed in the first half, second half 12GW 11GW, distributed 4GW (mainly by spontaneous use).
2, the force behind the policies: Government officials set the tone PV steady growth and restructuring
Judging by the wording from the Department of energy documents, PV has been defined as the senior Government stable growth, adjust the structure of important areas.
We judge, in half completed task adverse of situation Xia, Energy Council by has Government senior of pressure, Energy Council Secretary Wu xinxiong Hefei visits and jiaxing speaks, reflect has Energy Council completed task of urgent degree, zhihou of distributed policy defines expanded and indicators release, is Energy Council to completed even excess completed task made of actual action, which set of terms, very with can implementation sex.
Facilitated by the rise, we believe that the industry will still be healthy growth, industry capacity next year is expected to reach about 18-20GW.
3, industrial chain has been brewing price price
According to Solarzoom PV industry chain, price, price of polysilicon prices has been brewing. Mainly due to the rapid growth in demand and supply is limited. The growth in demand mainly from China, supply constraints are mainly China United States of processing through, we judge the United States domestic polysilicon business survival environment is going to be bad, or even preclude the possibility of withdrawal, which will bring substantial capacity gaps of the industry. Current grade polysilicon price at 21 dollars/kg, the greater probability of up to 22 dollars next week, four quarters are expected to hit highs of US $ 25.
Due to conduction effect of the Silicon coupled with demand strong degree, we judge the price of silicon wafers, cells, modules will also be reflected.
4, investment strategies: recommended power operation platform, technology, TBEA, sunshine, and Solarfun power electronics, Eicon Technology, senyuan electric, hareon
Goal set the tone this year, policy price and give a clear direction to the background, price is intended to signal any boom booming, our identification there is still a lot of investment opportunities in the photovoltaic industry, the main attraction remains the station link. Ground power station is the protagonist of this year, distributed search for a way forward, distributed on the ground become a new flashpoint for this year, we recommend power current operating platform, technology, TBEA, sunshine, and Solarfun power electronics, Eicon Technology, senyuan electric, hareon. Follow-up focused on gaining companies distributed on the ground.
Main risk factors: (1) policy, (2) approves the increased competition
Original title: new round of PV solar industry meet Qi Sheng big volume and price quotes