Peng Libin: distributed the roof or solar power into the mainstream

Polaris solar PV net news: recently, Energy Research Institute, national development and Reform Commission, the National Centre for renewable energy, Energy Foundation, China renewable energy society and many other authorities jointly released 2050 China high proportion of renewable energy sources development scenarios and paths of research. The report ventured a prediction about the renewable energy scene: by 2050, the share of renewable energies in energy consumption in China occupy 60%.

From 2014 60% less than 3% by 2050, this data is trustworthy?

Solar investment demand is “thirst”

Currently in China, the minimum proportion of solar energy in the energy industry as a whole, in 2014, the total generating capacity, solar power for less than 0.5%. Because of this, solar power is perhaps the most promising field of renewable energy.

Germany, and France has announced that in 2050, 100% use of renewable energy, but due to lower utilization of renewable energy has been, to achieve 60% ratio does not look easy to complete, but in order to take into account advances in solar energy technology and efficiency improvements, a significant increase in the proportion of renewable energy consumption is not difficult.

Based on the above forecasts, by 2050, China’s solar power generation capacity will reach 2.7 billion-kilowatt. Compared to 29 million-kilowatt as of 2014, China’s solar power generation capacity over the next 36 years, added the 2.671 billion-kilowatt, even calculated on a per kilowatt to invest 5000 Yuan, need 13.355 trillion yuan total investment, with an average annual investment of over 370 billion yuan.

2014 solar installed capacity in China at just over 10 million-kilowatt, and according to the 2015 development goals over the next 36 years, with an annual capacity must be 74.19 million-kilowatt in order to meet the demand.

It can be seen that by 2050 solar energy investment demand, China faces a “hunger” investment opportunities, which glimpsed from the variation analysis of investment in solar power in recent years.

Year power 1500 hours of computing in recent years solar power investment change: 2010 need to invest 20000 Yuan per kilowatt by 2015 investments fall to 7500 dollars per kilowatt, kWh cost from 1.2 Yuan to 0.6 Yuan per kilowatt hour, fully reduced by half.

The reason, which is due to the marked shift since the 2010 solar power plant equipment: 60 battery power 210 w raised to 265 w; component prices reduced from 15 dollars per watt to 4 Yuan per watt; from 3 Yuan per watt inverter price reduced to 0.22 Yuan per watt. Just like in 2010, it is difficult to estimate price of solar equipment in 5 years, now can not 2050 solar equipment prices is expected to be reduced to what extent.

Investors should have “golden eye”

Based on optimistic estimates for 2050 solar power plant development, for investors, opportunities and bottlenecks to distinguish between solar power station, select the station with the most potential for investment. Ground power station and roofs of distributed power station is now the two largest photovoltaic power plant investment type.

Ground power station has a clear property rights and easier access to financial support, installation, simple access, have settled with the grid, which is its advantages, but surface plant consume large amounts of land, subsidies in place for a long time and so on. In addition, the ground station is also affected by changed greatly due to power open bidding, serious lack of competitiveness of PV power station.

Roof distributed power disadvantage is that because the property was not clear and not easy to obtain financial support installed, access is relatively complex; clearing the relationships exist on the roof the owners, investors and power the tripartite relationship, owners will have a risk of default. But land, unlimited power to dissolve, benefits in place for a quarter for the first time all advantages of distributed power plant is the roof, at the same time, because it is direct power supply roof distributed power plant will become the preferred electricity sales companies in the future.

Currently abroad PV station of mainstream form is distributed station, Germany has 70% of station belongs to distributed, this is trend; ground station exists storage can not solution Qian will was rigid blackouts, and future electric modified bidding Internet, risk; electric modified zhihou, due to power side release, simple of PV power company hard survival, and ground station in bidding Internet of rules Xia competitiveness is most weak of. Marketing electricity side after the release, distributed generation Foundation of company is selling best, is closest to the power supply mode of customer service than for terrestrial photovoltaic power plant, the risk is much smaller, and distributed power for future energy-saving service provides the customer entry.

To promote the development of distributed PV, policy has yet to be perfected, but I believe that in the near future, roof distributed solar power station will become mainstream, and to account for a greater proportion of renewable energy consumption.

(Reporters Gong Xiaoli Yang Peng Libin, President of investment, according to Beijing June speech at the Institute for the future of the arrangement)

Original title: distributed the roof or solar power into the mainstream

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