Polaris solar PV net news: recently, presidential candidate Hillary Clinton ˙ Clinton unveiled her climate and energy plan, including that by 2020 United States total PV installed capacity up to 140GW. Is a candidate in the presidential elections for the first time specific solar deployment capacity goals.
How big is this goal?
Hillary’s solar energy goal is not a small number. At present, the United States deployed photovoltaic power capacity totals about 21GW, so this goal over the next 5 years, growth of up to 7 times now.
Source: GTM Research Institute
According to the forecast, assuming that current policy unchanged, by 2020 PV 70GW of capacity. Clinton twice times the goal is to predict.
This is a very aggressive target. Hillary ˙ Clinton was elected to power, 2017, so before 2020 could exert their influence on the market most of the time she is only 4 years. Assume that our predictions are correct for 2015-2016, then at the end of 2016 United States total PV installed capacity will reach 38GW, which means that if elected, Hillary will be 102GW in his 4-year term the deployment capacity, in other words, the figure is more than 2.5 times times when she was elected.
Same comparison, in his second term, President Barack Obama is close to complete this goal. The end of 2012, and PV deployment capacity is 7.3GW, but due to falling PV costs, stable policy environment and technological innovation, we expect the end of 2016 cumulative size would be 38.3GW. In this way, 2013-2016 increments for 31GW–today is 2012 the end of volume 4 times more than doubled.
Source: GTM Research Institute
But President Barack Obama’s second term, the growth market is starting from a very small base. If Hillary’s tenure, the market growth rate, the increase is as follows.
Source: GTM Research Institute, GTM/SEIA United States PV market watch
So, market increase of the year 2020 to 36GW, the cumulative capacity of roughly at the beginning of this term.
This goal realistic?
In short, Yes, but there are several points to note. Clinton to achieve this goal to ensure the 2017-2020 years, United States solar market annual growth of 32%. This rate with our forecast of growth between 2013-2016 36% roughly equivalent. In other words, speed only needs to keep the market growth for 4 years.
However, often it is not easy to achieve, our projections for 2020 and there is a big gap between Clinton’s goal. In my opinion, reaching this goal requires special attention to some problems.
Extension of the investment tax credit: the biggest uncertainty is the current market 30% of the Federal investment tax credit (ITC) a continuation of policies (or terminated), the policy will expire at the end of 2016. Regardless of whether the ITC policies continue, sharply falling solar costs could help the market through this barrier, 2016-2017 before the expiry of the policy last year, market growth of 30% is available.
Clean electric power plan: If we can rapidly adopt and implement clean energy plan, then to the second half of the term of Office of the President (2018-2020), American solar energy market will be encouraged by the substantial, this includes in some lagging development of photovoltaic regions. 2015 1th quarter, United States 70% PV system annual capacity from 4 districts-California, Northern California, Arizona and New Jersey. However, 140GW Grand goals need to be more widely distributed.
Municipal and State-level activities: solar markets many of the major driving forces in the local utility or State level. This includes the administrative licensing, grid interconnection, subsidies, tariffs, and renewable energy portfolio standard (RPS), a series of policies and measures such as net metering rules. Any changes in these mechanisms, especially in the 20 major PV State, would greatly influence the market demand, and 140GW the goals of.
Solar costs: put aside the political and regulatory factors, solar energy is related to the cost of development and the rapid decline in the market. Even in today’s component costs are relatively stable, the overall deployment costs become cheaper as the falling cost of hardware and software. Faster-than-expected decline in cost of speed is the most important factor of all.
Overall, Clinton’s highlights include: tax incentive extension (ITC), PV extension project (community solar energy), and solar x Prize pushing communities to reduce red tape. There are many other plans, such as increased investment in clean-energy research and development, as well as common land expansion for renewable, will to a certain extent, also be able to influence and promote the development of the solar energy market.
Campaign targets most meaningful value, but the target is interesting in that, its commitment to future years United States solar market can reach their full potential.
Original title: 140GW! Hillary Clinton’s goals could be realized?