Polaris solar PV net news: this issue concerns
1 July polysilicon prices recovered slightly in August, again approaching record lows
2, polysilicon inventory down slightly, survival is still struggling
3, the “58th article” to promote processing trade imports, polycrystalline silicon imports are still high
Good news 4, PV business performance, industry is now to pick up momentum
5, polysilicon afternoon forecast
, July polysilicon prices recovered slightly in August, again approaching record lows
2015 7 August polysilicon prices were “Yang after the first tumor suppressor” trend, lots were sold from the beginning of July 113700 Yuan/ton of mild correction to 114,100 Yuan/ton in mid-July, an increase of 0.35%, then slowly declined until the end of August 113,400 Yuan/ton, drop 0.61%, approached again 113,300 yuan/ton historic lows in late June.
Support July polysilicon price micro-site callback of main reasons has: while, three quarter began domestic PV power station gradually started, on PV battery tablets component of needs began warmer, gradually slow conduction to upstream more crystal silicon material, so polysilicon price also gradually back stability; on the, “suspended processing trade 58th, file” is expected to August end of real began works, processing trade imports will completely seal blocking, this will makes imports volume part reduced, and corresponding of this part needs is transfer to domestic, so into June yihou, Photovoltaic companies start looking for domestic suppliers and raw materials to ensure that future demand for polysilicon, and some have even started with domestic polysilicon companies signed long term, long ranging in weight from hundred to thousand tons, domestic polysilicon inventories are reduced, resulting in polysilicon price stabilisation trend in July.
Led to August polysilicon price again fell of main reasons has: while, downstream experience July of fill inventory zhihou, August fill inventory stage as, on polysilicon needs has slowed, led domestic polysilicon price has fell; on the, “58th, paper” Hou raised of assault imports has been continued, led to downstream August using of Silicon material still is most is 6-July of imports material, this directly led to on domestic polysilicon needs sharply reduced, Therefore the impact of imports on domestic demand for polysilicon is also important factor leading to the domestic polysilicon price decline.
Figure 1 August 2014-August 2015 China poly silicon spot price unit: Yuan/ton source: silicon industry branch
Second, the polysilicon business inventories slightly reduced survival still struggling
Silicon industry statistics branch, 2015 7 August domestic polysilicon production of 28,100 tonnes, an increase of 20.1%. July production of 14,200 tonnes, production in August was 13900 tons, including Jiangsu zhongneng accounts for 7-8 month 43.7% of the total, still among the first domestic production, TBEA and Sichuan Yongxiang respectively ranks second to third in July-August, sorted by the output of the first three production accounted for 64.9% of the total. During July-August there were four companies (SI, Dunan, macro, yeyan) normal maintenance, part of the end of August to return to normal production, yield little affected during the 7-8 months. Currently 15 production enterprises, starts up 100% companies are 10, remaining apart from the normal technical or maintenance of some enterprises, and maintain normal production.
Figure 2 August 2014-August 2015 domestic polysilicon production unit: ton source: silicon industry branch
From the perspective of the situation for enterprises, currently 15 enterprises (including normal overhaul enterprises), Jiangsu zhongneng and still maintain a load of new energy, Jiangsu zhongneng run 65,000 tons/year of Siemens method overloading, maintain 6000 tons a month (31 days), about production runs. TBEA maintained at around 2000 tons per month of overload production, production is still in second place. In April expansion of postpartum Yongxiang, Sichuan, during July-August production ranking jumped to third. Luoyang Zhonggui due August maintenance affecting half of normal production, production has decreased, in July-August production ranked fourth, other polysilicon companies except some maintenance in the restoration of stability in the production stage, are maintaining their original production status.
A year of “58th document” effect caused by the processing trade imports of assault, making import prices continue to remain low dumping on the one hand, forcing domestic polysilicon prices way down, in the case of price is difficult to maintain normal production and operation of enterprises, polysilicon companies will have to increase output, adjust the production indicators and other ways to reduce costs, domestic production has declined significantly. On the assault imports and led downstream backlog large inventory, directly led to domestic polysilicon for needs weak also backlog large inventory, silicon industry branch statistics, as August end of domestic polysilicon enterprise internal inventory about for 9000 tons around (July elimination inventory, August product inventory), and June end of inventory 10,000 tons compared, domestic July-August during total Digest inventory 1000 tons around, so August end of polysilicon price is than June end of of trough slightly high. Even inventory slightly reduction, but the enterprise inventory relative Yu a week production of normal inventory volume still serious partial high, to enterprise of sales and the funds operation caused has great of pressure, face imports dumping suppressed and needs weak of double pressure and price way fell of situation, even even cost leading Yu global of Jiangsu in the can, and Xinjiang special variable, and Xinjiang encyclopedia, are has all into losses, struggled.
Third, the “58th article” to promote processing trade imports, polycrystalline silicon imports are still high
According to customs latest data statistics, July 2015 China polysilicon imports volume for 9664 tons, still close million tons, main is due to month from Korea imports volume still up to 4399 tons due to, but led to July polysilicon imports volume chain slightly reduced of main reasons is “suspended processing trade of 58th, file” will Yu August end of real began play role, led July by processing trade way imports polysilicon reduced to 4036 tons, accounted for month total imports volume of 41.8%, chain reduced 47.3%, Since the United States imports hit a record low of 569 tonnes, the chain dropped 74.2%, which according to the volume of processing trade imported 331 tons, substantially reduced 84.9% per cent, accounting for the month since the United States imports 58.3% than 1-July cumulative processing trade accounted for 93.7% low 35.4%. “58th,” will be key to onset time node, continue to strictly enforce the “58th,” plugging loopholes in the processing trade importance!
Although benefit Yu suspended processing trade file is real implementation, July processing trade imports volume chain reduced, but total imports volume is still maintained in million tons around, main reasons has: first, July since Korea imports volume for 4399 tons, accounted for total imports volume of 45.5%, than month from United States and Germany imports polysilicon total is high out 41.7%, its absolute led status failed to shake, still maintained imports volume first, this is led to imports volume high of main reasons; second, through from Taiwan transit avoid “double anti-” Tax of imports volume accounted for share new highlights, July from Taiwan transit of polysilicon volume for 966 tons, chain sharply increased 40.6%, accounted for total imports volume of 10%, beyond United States became China third big imports area, so through transit Taiwan avoid tax is led to polysilicon imports volume maintained high of and a important factors; third, from Malaysia, and Norway, and Saudi Arabia, and Japan, market of polysilicon capacity gradually release, July from these area imports polysilicon volume reached 1196 tons, 12.4% per cent of total imports, which also makes it hard for imports fell sharply.
Figure 3 July 2014-July 2015 polysilicon average prices for imports and import diagram data source: customs
There are two points worth noting:
First, in July from Korea imports of 4399 tonnes of polysilicon, 45.5% per cent of total imports for the month. 1-July cumulative since Korea imported 28431 tons, 40.8% per cent of total imports, imports increased significantly from a year 66.1%. Korea’s major exporters OCI and Korea Silicon (Hankook Silicon) tax rate of only 2.4% and 2.8%, anti-dumping duties on it does not have any impact, Korea in May 2014 more than United States and Germany, one of the world’s largest source of imports, continuously for more than a year, has remained a priority. 1-July since Korea through processing trade way imports polysilicon 12980 tons, accounted for since Korea imports total of 45.7%, is accounted for than not is maximum, but due to its imports total row first, so since Korea processing trade imports total than processing trade accounted for than maximum of United States is more out 20.7%, visible, from Korea imports regardless of is total also is processing trade volume are strongly impact with domestic polysilicon market, so on Korea dumping for review imminent.
Figure 4 Korea imports accounted for more than
Second, according to the trade points in July 2015, China’s processing trade imports 4036 tons, accounted for 41.8%. 1-July cumulative processing trade imports 40259 tons, 57.7% per cent of total imports. Points country specific seems: July since Korea by processing trade way imports polysilicon 1423 tons, accounted for since Korea imports total of 32.3%, 1-July cumulative since Korea by processing trade way imports 12980 tons, over United States 20.7%, accounted for cumulative total imports volume of 45.7%, visible even 2.4% of tax are to through processing trade way avoid; July since United States by processing trade way imports polysilicon 331 tons, accounted for since United States imports total of 58.3%, 1-July cumulative since the United States by way of processing trade imports 10751 tons, accounted for more than 93.7%. While the United States polysilicon companies are taxed in 50%, but basically processing trade channels to avoid “double” taxed June processing trade accounted for even more broken history, only 2% is through general trade imports, and the 2% is not only “double back” tax within the scope of electronic grade poly silicon for semiconductors. July from United States imports volume is can sharply reduced, and suspended processing trade “58th, file” is up effect has must contact; July since Germany by processing trade way imports polysilicon 1682 tons, accounted for since Germany imports total of 66.4%, 1-July cumulative since Germany by processing trade way imports 11283 tons, accounted for than 58.8%, visible even has price commitment, Germany w grams through processing trade way avoid of volume also not accounted for minority, so timely take measures will on Germany tax materialized, Can effectively curb the dumping of its increasingly aggressive behavior.
Figure 5 since the United States imports for processing trade accounted
Silicon Industry Branch think, July processing trade total reduced main benefit Yu “58th, file” is in August end of real play role, and in “58th, file” is real up effect of key node, must continues to strictly implementation “58th,” file, blocked processing trade imports vulnerability, ease dumping on domestic polysilicon industry caused of huge impact, to domestic polysilicon enterprise to breathing of opportunities.
Four, PV enterprises performance news, industry is now to pick up momentum
European countries on the PV industry of China “double reverse” so many PV companies began turning to the Southeast Asian market, and marketing investment in the photovoltaic industry in Southeast Asia in recent years has been growth, domestic PV companies to seize growth opportunities in emerging markets, revenue performance improved significantly. According to the Ministry’s latest data show that in 2015 the PV manufacturing industry worth more than 200 billion yuan in the first half, an increase of 30%. Among them, 33 listed companies in a-share concept of photovoltaic power generation, 24 companies have the interim results are estimates, performance companies up to 15, nearly 70% per cent. In addition, PV product prices from June started to steadily rise, business generally better domestic top ten components of average gross margin over 15%, entering the PV manufacturing industry standards bulletins list of 29 components enterprises with an average net profit margin rose 6.5%.
Large province of Jiangsu as a PV, PV enterprises showed a significant rebound, with Trina’s most stunning performance: component record-high shipments in the second quarter reached 1.23GW, an increase of 30.6%; the second quarter revenues amounted to 722.9 million dollars, the annual growth rate of 39.2% second quarter gross margin of 20%. Meanwhile, Trina raised annual component shipment target of 2015, raised from 4.4~4.6GW to 4.9~5.1GW. In addition, eging and love technology, Jiangsu kuangda Enterprise revenues were achieved in the first half increased significantly.
Policy, the National Energy Board from 2015 onwards increasing PV products standards, quality and threshold in order to promote survival of the fittest, which launched three consecutive years is an important measure of “leader”. The plan to raise the consciousness technology, promoting technological upgrading, eliminating bad and inefficient production capacity, were formed by natural barriers to technology and brand, in addition, the “leader” program from the power plant to run the project’s approval of administrative processes, can be absorbed in the power station construction and quality assurance.
Domestic PV manufacturers orders increased solar module shipments growth, photovoltaic power generation project in order to start, coupled with the national policy overlay effect appears gradually, the domestic photovoltaic industry has basically taken out of winter, and gradually began to show a warming trend.
Five-, poly-silicon future forecast
From policy and downstream demand fluctuations, 7 August domestic polysilicon prices to raise anti-until the end of August, prices fell to its lows towards the end of June. But from September began, will benefit Yu “suspended processing trade of 58th, file” continues to implementation, polysilicon imports at least can seal blocking from United States into domestic of 2000 tons/months, and given three or four quarter into traditional installation season, downstream needs not reduced, these imports reduced volume is natural transfer to on domestic polysilicon material of needs, so is expected to September began polysilicon price will will rational rebounded.
Original title: polysilicon imports remain high domestic enterprises to survive in difficult