Arctic star solar PV network news: China PV industry continues to maintained 2013 yilai of warmer situation, in international PV market flourish, especially China PV market strong growth of pull Xia, PV enterprise capacity utilization get effective improve, industry scale steadily growth, technology constantly progress, Enterprise margins get upgrade, in “area way” strategy guide and the international trade protection pour forced Xia, China PV enterprise of “out of to” pace also in constantly speed up. Looking ahead to 2016, under the policy guidance and market-driven, photovoltaic industry development in China continued to hold up well, but the financing of PV manufacturing, photovoltaic market subsidies in arrears, rationing and PV power plant problems constraining the development of the industry.
First, the basic judgment of 2016
(A) the PV market booming, China’s cumulative installed capacity ranks top in the world
In 2015, the global PV market, strong growth, new wind power installed capacity is expected to exceed 50GW, an increase of 16.3%, the cumulative photovoltaic capacity of over 230GW. Traditional markets such as Japan and the United States, Europe, new installed capacity of 9GW, 8GW and 7.5GW respectively, remain a strong momentum. Emerging markets emerge, PV applications in South-East Asia, Latin America countries develop irresistible force, India, and Thailand, and Chile, and Mexico, installed capacity rapidly, such as India in 2015 will reach 2.5GW. Our PV installed capacity will reach 16.5GW, continue ranked, cumulative installed capacity is expected to exceed 43GW, surpass Germany as the world’s largest PV cumulative installed capacity of the country.
Source: China PV industry association in November 2015
Looking ahead to 2016, despite the weak global economy, countries such as the United States and Japan policy impact of falling support, domestic PV market will keep growing, and annual PV installed capacity is expected to reach more than 58GW. Among them, the United States because of the ITC (tax) policy expires at the end of 2016, will continue to set off installing climax, new installed capacity is expected to reach more than 12GW, Japan PV market despite the subsidies continue to face downward pressure PV continuing decline in commodity prices will continue to support Japan market development, market size is expected to stay above the 8GW. Emerging markets such as India is vigorously promoting the development of photovoltaic, with the improvement of supporting policies and financial instruments, could be the next point of the outbreak. China PV market although faced local area power, and subsidies arrears, and Internet benchmark electric price cut, problem, but believes Government will through upgrade can renewable energy additional, and optimization power station index scale issued, cracked bottleneck, and products price of continued declined also will offset electric price cut and power brings of effect, is expected to 2016 China PV installed in “lead who” plans and electric price cut brings of Rob loaded drive Xia, annual PV installed market will reached 20GW above.
(B) industrial scale steady growth, profitability increased
In 2015, global production has continued to rise, the total output will reach 340,000 tonnes, an increase of 12.6%; China poly silicon productions about 162,000 tons, an increase of 19.1%, producing 16 polysilicon companies most in a State of full capacity, even though imports still exceeded 100,000 tons. Global solar PV module production is about 60GW, an increase of 15.4%, China’s solar cell production is about 43GW, compared with 20.8% per cent, average gross margin over 15% top 10 components. Number of enterprises started to set up factories overseas, globalization of production was evident. According to the part of the PV manufacturing industry standard conditions of business statistics, first half of 2015, components sales revenue 8.9%, net profit rose to 9.7%, the average net profit margin rose 6.5% China PV industry capacity utilization has been improved, but under the influence of component prices dropped slightly, corporate profitability is still not strong.
Figure 3 2011-2016 solar module production, growth rate and global production of photovoltaic modules
Looking ahead to 2016, as the world’s new polysilicon production capacity improvement and original, expects global production will reach 360,000 tons, China poly silicon production will reach 180,000 tons, the product prices are expected to remain at about 110,000 yuan/ton, enterprises remain under price pressure. In terms of battery components, along with the PV industry’s overall improvement as a result of falling component prices make solar power cost and closer to even reach parity, global production is expected to continue its growth momentum throughout the year would be 65GW, PV module production in China (including overseas factory) is expected to reach 50GW, further enhance the trend in the industrial concentration. But still need to pay attention because of the global PV markets such as Japan persistent downturn, United States fluctuation effects of expiration of a tax credit, Enterprise expansion remains to be rational.
(C) continuously upgrade the technical level, gradually reducing production cost
In 2015, under the push of internal and external environment, PV enterprises to increase technology research and development, production levels continue to progress. Backbone Enterprise polysilicon production energy continues to declined, integrated cost has fell to 90,000 yuan/tons, industry average integrated power consumption has fell to 100KWh/kg, Silicon n-method flow of bed method, industrialization process speed up; Crystal and the more Crystal battery technology continued improved, industrialization efficiency respectively reached 19.5% and 18.3%, passivation launches very back contact (PERC), and different quality knot (HIT), and back electrode, and high concentrated, technology route speed up development; PV component package and the anti-light to attenuation technology constantly improved, Leader in component production costs fell to 2.8 yuan per watt, PV system cost below 8 Yuan/w per cent, reduced to 0.6-0.9 Yuan/kWh.
Looking ahead to 2016, technological progress will continue to be industry topics. SI module conversion efficiency of industrial production is expected to exceed 18.5%, monocrystalline silicon cell is expected to reach 20%, the mainstream power component products will reach 265-270W. Silane polysilicon production process by fluidized bed is expected to achieve large-scale production, continuous feed production technology of single crystal and the G7, G8, large-capacity ingot technology continues to progress, will be further application of diamond wire cutting technology, large-scale production of PERC battery, n-type batteries to further expand. Meanwhile, in the past 99% photovoltaic products using amorphous silicon technology, new films, heterojunction, slow development of technology such as high concentration and homogenization technology of high industrial development risks significantly. Domestic PV manufacturing key technologies research and development and the lack of basic research, innovation fatigue and lack of new products and new technologies reserves, core competitiveness gap with international advanced level. Urgent factor inputs such as capital, technology, talent, promote China’s PV manufacturing to photovoltaic intellectual change, enhance core competitiveness of industries.
(D) industrial investment continued to improve and mergers and acquisitions continues to advance
According to the Ministry of industry and information technology, statistics, 2015 1 September, 80.79 billion yuan of Chinese photovoltaic industry investment, an increase of 35.8%, according to EnergyTrend statistics, 2015 years Chinese firms have been announces expansion plan, will add 4.2GW capacity, domestic capacity will be added 3.2GW. Many enterprises to implement the “go global” strategy, China has completed the overseas cell and module capacity 1.7GW and 2.3GW respectively, building and expansion of the production capacity reached 2.6GW with 4GW. Industry mergers and acquisitions accelerating and deepening of the market-leading integration of resources. Wind international to buy perpetual silicon and polysilicon enterprises United States solar module company Suniva, further optimize the industrial chain layout tongwei group to invest NT $ 850 million stake in Taiwan Gintech energy, enhanced cell scale economy effect; Xian longi, Trina and other enterprises to cooperate with Yingli, processing method through a delegate, to achieve maximize capacity utilization, and so on.
Looking ahead to 2016, PV enterprises in accelerating the development of emerging markets and is actively implementing the industrial global deployment plan through invest and set up factories abroad, overseas mergers and acquisitions, including, local production strategy to promote PV trade patterns to speed up evolution. While, in on promote advanced PV technology products application and industry upgrade of views policy guide Xia, domestic efficient battery market will will gradually expanded, enterprise also will will increased on domestic has has produced line of technology input, through technology upgrade upgrade products performance, in domestic of spread produced also will concentrated Yu upgrade PERC, and IBC, and MWT, efficient battery pieces of scale production capacity.
Second, the need to pay attention to several problems
(A) financing, financing your restricted PV manufacturing enterprise upgrade
First, some financial institutions due to the photovoltaic industry failure or shutdown, leading to high rate of bad loans, financial institutions generally tightened up on credit financing of PV manufacturing, mainly Bank lending to the manufacturing sector permission to withdraw to the head office, essentially limited, making photovoltaic manufacturing companies face severe financing problems. II is the backbone of our PV enterprises listed overseas, under the influence of industry integration and foreign trade disputes, China PV companies listed abroad have a serious crackdown, price-earnings ratio at a low level for a long time, makes the backbone enterprise financing costs have increased substantially, the basic loss in overseas capital markets financing capacity. Third, higher financing costs in the country, according to the survey, most of our solar financing cost around 8%, some even as high as 10% and offshore funding costs at around 3%-5%. High financing costs make PV costs high, sharp eroding corporate profits, severely restricted PV manufacturing technical transformation and industrialization of new technologies.
(B) “leader” plan will lead the domestic PV market development
In the current power in local areas under the background of intensified in the Northwest, with Datong “leader” planning practice, the next “leader” construction of the base will be more
Great development. A is can effective pull efficient products market needs, conducive to promoted enterprise technology upgrade and products quality upgrade, promote China PV industry transformation upgrade; II is through market of mechanism decided PV power station scale distribution, conducive to solution past bulk, and small, and mess of power station index issued; three is “lead who” base Government acts as a nanny role, provides unified public based facilities generation built, and record planning unified playing bundle service,, conducive to owners reduced investment cost. According to the media information, Datong and yangquan, baotou, Jining next year and other GW-class “leader” base implementation, according to CCID statistics, a think-tank, China achieved “leader” plan calls for lower capacity, far from meeting the market demand, it is urgent to accelerate the upgrading of production equipment or new technology industrialization, improve productivity of advanced production lines and improve product quality.
(C) solar subsidies not be issued in time becomes a bottleneck restricting the development of market
On one hand, renewable energy subsidies there is a huge gap, subsidies in arrears is serious. PV on-grid price subsidies are mainly from additional renewable electricity price, the current renewable energy surcharge amount for 1.5 cents/kWh in 2015, tax of about 50 billion yuan, is expected only to meet before September 2013 demand for project funding included in the list of renewable energy subsidies, September 2013, after the incorporation of the project did not get subsidies, expected by the end of 2015, this part of the funding gap could reach 40 billion yuan. Furthermore, current renewable energy subsidies application procedures too cumbersome, subsidy payment is not timely. Subsidy funds reporting, auditing, allocated by local finance, pricing and energy sectors after the trial, and then by the Ministry of finance in conjunction with the national development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Board three
Approval by the central finance allocated to local finance, then or directly to the power company or by power network enterprises pay, leading to capital allocation period is too long. This causes poor circulation of enterprise funds, financial costs, industry chain power enterprises, manufacturing enterprises, parts and triangular debts between enterprises, and seriously affects the enterprise’s technological innovation, technological innovation, upgrading technology, normal operation and economic benefits.
(D) the policy is reasonable for PV power station, tax is not standard to increase the burden on enterprises
First, land policy is reasonable, severely limiting PV Application market development. September 2015, land resources department, and national NDRC, six Department Board introduced of on support new industry new industry State development promote mass venture peoples innovation with to policy of views (land funding rules (2015) 5th,) more is on PV power station project proposed “occupied agricultural to of, all with to part are should by construction with to management”, due to China in the East area of land basically are is “agricultural to” or “construction with to”, PV power station construction basically is to agricultural light complementary, and fishing light complementary, form development, Not change original land using nature, but this paper is to “a knife cut” of way requirements accounted for to all by construction with to management, while increased PV power station investment cost, on the local government due to with to index and the planning, problem cannot arrangements PV power station construction project, basically is on PV, new industry new industry State development up to hinder and non-promote role, has against the paper original. Second, PV power station of land tax collection is not standard, heavy taxation of enterprises and the operation is not transparent does not open. In national economic down of big background Xia, part local government began on has built production of PV power station project proposed levy arable land occupied tax and the land using tax demands, and levy way, and tax standard not specification, and differences obviously, and can adjustment space had big, PV power station investment enterprise unable to bear this part land tax formed of huge investment cost, caused investment returns sharply fell even losses, serious effect power station investment and the whole PV industry development enthusiasm.
(E) network channel construction, power the grim effects of PV power station construction
Currently renewable energy development plan and construction of power grid planning of overall convergence problems, due to the regional power grid structures and underdeveloped delivery channels, focuses on development of PV power station area face rationing situation all the more severe, resulting in resource-rich areas of advantage is difficult to achieve. Meanwhile, many areas had yet to establish comprehensive protection priority scheduling of renewable power operating mechanism, still taking the average distribution of the annual plan of the electricity power dispatching operation, guaranteeing the purchasing requirements of the renewable energy law was not effectively implemented, contribute to renewable energy generation systems are limited it is very serious. If the PV power station construction and support out of any improvement in the problem of power system planning, supportability systems difficult to implement renewable energy generation in full, project-level planning will be difficult to implement ambitious goals for renewable energy development plan may fall.
Three recommendations, and countermeasures
(A) strengthen the exchange of information, innovative means of financial support
To raise public awareness on the development of photovoltaic industry through various channels, media and financial institutions, among other things, deepened about the PV industry development and future development trend of knowledge and understanding, and encourage financial institutions to innovative financing products and helped support the strong. A is support financial institutions through debt turned unit or bad assets securities of, way, ease enterprise debt burden overweight problem; II is encourages financial institutions Zhijian strengthening cooperation, established closed financing funds, on backbone Enterprise for orders financing support, avoid backbone enterprise funds chain depletion brings of risk; three is encourages financial institutions and overseas listed enterprise cooperation, support enterprise from abroad back city return shares, regulatory sector provides green channel, shortened again listed procedures and process; four is continues to advance reduced PV enterprise financing cost, Loans by focusing on the business directory or order, implementation of differentiated low cost financing policies.
(B) the establishment of investment funds, support enterprises ‘ technological innovation
Funds for guiding, attracting capital investment, market-oriented operation. Encourage and attract five power generation groups, grid, PV enterprises, financial institutions and social capital in the Fund, Fund to support solar PV business development to promote mergers, standardize corporate operations and develop positive self development ability. According to a certain proportion of the Fund invested in photovoltaic power station construction and the manufacturing sector, through the power link PV manufacturing sector steady income compensation risk. Manufacturing key PV technology innovation and support PV enterprises “going out”, optimizing the PV manufacturing industry worldwide.
(C) direct the global layout, implement a comprehensive subsidy policy
A proper settlement of foreign trade barriers to encourage companies to hold together abroad cost depressions and market potential of the countries or regions to invest and build factories, optimize production capacity worldwide. Second, the photovoltaic subsidy funds payment as soon as possible, improve renewable energy surcharge standard as soon as possible, resolve the Fund gap subsidize, implementation of Ma Kai, Deputy Prime Minister in PV seminar in Wuxi instruction spirit, PV subsidies that advances made from the power company, the end of the year by the financial and other sectors and grid companies to audit and accounting to ensure that subsidies timely release of funds. Third is the perfect PV subsidy policy, promoting technological progress, the efficiency is lower than a certain standard components did not give subsidy or subsidies less, while encouraging “leaders” qualified and efficient components in the plan price range, ensure efficient solar module market share and profit margins.
(D) to strengthen coordinated protection power full purchase
State energy management and power regulatory sector coordination the province, and district, and city added or amendment regional can renewable energy development planning, will national focus project into place development planning, makes place planning and national planning phase unified; coordination national grid and South grid perfect grid development planning, makes grid development planning and can renewable energy development planning phase coordination, through things and North-South power conveying channel, especially arrangements good national qianwanqianwa PV power base of outside sent channel construction, achieved advantage area resources effective using, And on the implementation of the plan be supervised. Meanwhile, recommends that the national electric power regulatory authority, in accordance with the law on renewable energy renewable energy generation in full regulations guaranteeing the purchasing renewable power grid and acquisition survey on actual implementation and acquisition cannot be completed in accordance with the provisions of electricity generated by renewable, causing economic loss of the renewable energy power plants illegal hold liability, guarantee the legitimate rights and interests of renewable energy power generation enterprises in accordance with law.
(E) clear land use, regulate land taxation policy
Recommendations of finance and the State administration of taxation issued clear of photovoltaic power generation enterprises at the national level land-use tax, regulate local photovoltaic companies land-use tax. While drew attention to fiscal and tax departments issued specific instructions to regulate farmland occupation tax is imposed by the advice and interpretation on the other, encouraged and supported way to recommended national thermal power, land-use tax relief policies for PV power station. Meanwhile, land, forestry, energy and taxation departments should jointly study and formulate policies for PV power station, explicit nature and scope of the PV power plant, photovoltaic power stations without changing the original land use according to the nature of the land property management to encourage PV power station construction and the combination of agricultural, fisheries and other, improve the efficiency of land use.
Original title: 2016 China PV industry development prospect