Polaris solar PV net news: 2016 China market in the first half over installing, US-India market grew rapidly, boosting total demand this year of up to 69.5GW. According to EnergyTrend Gold level report estimates, 2017 for solar needs high-speed development yilai almost 0 growth of year, excessive of glut may makes next year Xia half reproduction price disorder storm, not only component price year decreases will over 10%, in the upstream more crystal silicon, and wafer, and battery tablets price low points are may again innovation low, so next year the enterprise all put drop this as primary target, engaged 2017 of industry trough.
EnergyTrend counting 20,175 trends are as follows:
(1) China and the three big market decline simultaneously supply chain than in 2016
China PV indicator just below the 2016 2017 and the United States grab mounted boom diminished, Japan wholesale buy rates (FiT) decline and other unfavorable factors, ranking top three needs will change over the next year, EnergyTrend Deputy Manager Lin Yanrong points out that, the rise of India might replace Japan, demand for third country’s throne.
However, India and emerging market growth does not make up for, American and Japanese recessions, first-tier component plants to consolidate shipping territory, end of quote frequently break next year, component US$0.38/W of the market price may be due early next year, falling to only at the end of US$0.33/W. Prices, upstream vendors will face not only a great loss, first-tier component plants is also difficult to maintain gross profit above 15%, 2017 solar as a whole to profit will be lower than on the supply chain by 2016.
(2) the third real estate releases, tends to be around the same price
United States from 2014 on China-Taiwan cross-strait up “double reverse” after sanctions, proliferation of solar cells, module production capacity in South-East Asia, avoiding the high taxes and enjoys a high price because of the far edge, third estate can make a profit is good. However, China’s first-tier manufacturers overseas arms race war spread over huge, from under the recent rapid killing of American and European stock prices can be seen, the third estate had enough cover there are trade barriers between the US and Europe, high market due to trade barriers in the past between America and Europe, the current price minus shipping market, China has almost the same price. In the case of global component prices next year will be more in line, winning the amount does not depend on the capacity of the third capacity, but is there a way to produce differentiated products such as Crystal or Crystal PERC.
Third estate investment apart from avoiding us and European trade barriers outside the double, it can also make direct roots in the local emerging market; but only overseas production cells, acting as the main force of the factory, the profit would be lower overseas component price compression, see advantages, to prevent the third estate against the operational burden of enterprises.
(3) PERC volume leading Crystal City accounted for more than 32%
As technology matures, PERC has become indicators of enterprises ‘ competitiveness, global PERC capacity this year has reached 13GW,2017 more rival 20GW mark. However, according to EnergyTrend statistics, PERC has not produced this year to 4GW, showed PERC bottleneck is not in the capacity and stable production of batteries. With many factory output, efficiency of synchronous lifting, 2017 will become a year of PERC by leaps and bounds, major PERC module wattage and will rise to 295~300W next year, production is expected to double.
Benefiting from the PERC product with high performance as well as leader in heating, Crystal market shares continue to improve this year and next, particularly 5.5GW leader program-Crystal share next year could be closer to 80%, together with specific provinces release leader plans, as well as poverty alleviation and distributed rooftop system preferences such as high performance products, Crystal will be close to 40% market share in China next year. Lin Yan Rong said that outside of exhibition of domestic demand in China, Eng, single crystal, the high ratio of PERC is also gradually expanding the overseas market than Crystal overseas market share held steady this year, Crystal will also significantly improve market share overseas next year, the global percentage of single crystal 23.5% rose to 32% per cent next year from this year, future.
2015~2017 percentage of component outputs
(4) prices plummet polycrystalline diamond line turn the tide
Black silicon technology the debate this year, but by the second half of this year, market conditions rapidly deteriorated and investment into a wait-and-see attitude, makes the diamond wire cutting mix black silicon technology have not made significant progress. 2017 black diamond lines cut in the silicon technology is still the biggest bottleneck of polycrystalline products, but the prices plummet, Crystal market share expansion of exhortations, diamond wire cutting multicrystalline silicon wafer is imperative. Water level in cash remained tight in 2017, EnergyTrend think dry etching of high initial capital investment may lower heat, enterprises will be the main consideration in wet, or additives in the form of producing black Silicon products.
For now, selection of black silicon technology is still depending on GCL leading manufacturers such as, solar, BYD will take what waves. But business models to observations, vertically integrated factory in cost savings to cut silicon wafers into King Kong lines, increased costs by the deduction of import wet black Silicon can also save about each US$0.06 amount, appearance and its own capacity to the cell is less demanding, for vertically integrated factory to make wet black silicon there is no small advantage.
Professional battery factory of diamond line cut wafer only foreign shopping, is shopping price still is slightly lower than General wafer, but save cost limited, in next year middle manufacturers only tighten belts live of situation Xia, mixed acid additives of etched method is may just transition of technology, but can let enterprise in not increased equipment spending of situation Xia import diamond line cut of wafer, recently became professional battery factory focuses on of programme one of, also let diamond line cut polysilicon tablets is expected to in next year Xia half accelerated volume.
(5) PERC-n market value for compression market share expansion
China’s “Super leader” plans again raised the motivations of manufacturers into the n-type technology, however expensive n-type equipment, technology diversity, coupled with the 2017 down is far more important than efficiency, high cost of n-type technology making inroads. Expected HJT, PERT, MWT technology also is vying for the special needs of small niche market, double power generation issues will catch light, light complementary topics continue to simmer, but power generation on the back of the overall plant yield of great help, but power generation on the back of testing and identification mechanisms are yet to be standardized, difficult to progress next year.
Overall, the wild swings in the industrial supply and demand imbalance and the end-market demand, resulting in 2016-2017 solar prices are rapidly collapse faults, companies in order to survive, must resort to maintain or even improve the quality while reducing, PERC and black Silicon will be the twin to reach this goal.
Also, again in response to price out, companies will rethink the whole industry chain products and profit-making mode of distribution, failed to enhance the competitiveness of manufacturers in the storm would be difficult to spend the harsh market conditions. Therefore, whether it is followed, and enhance the capacity of single crystal, Crystal ratio, reducing the pioneer import diamond line or black Silicon products, or for future trends into the downstream market or distributed, the positioning of the enterprise are required to more clearly in order to prevent being marginalized by drastic changes in the environment.
Original title: 2017 solar disorder reduce the prices more important than efficiency