Polaris solar PV net news: PV industry in China under the influence of factors such as policy guidance and market-driven, the situation has improved, the market has steadily increased. In 2014, in case of further expansion in market demand, China PV industry continued to grow steadily, but remain under price pressure from oversupply.
The overall situation improved
By the end of 2013, polysilicon production enterprises in China from the beginning of the 7 up to 15, most of the battery shaft to turn them around.
Industry development gradually pick up, business conditions improve. In 2013, the global new PV installed capacity of 38.4GW, an increase of 20% full year polysilicon, component price up 47% and 8.7%, respectively. EU PV “double reverse” case reached a tentative solution, China’s South Korea poly-silicon “double reverse” make final awards, further improve the external environment. Domestic business was constantly getting better, by the end of 2013, polysilicon production enterprises increased to 15 and by 7 at the beginning, most batteries key to turn them around, mainly four-quarter gross profit margin more than 15%, and some positive full year net profits.
Steady growth in industrial scale, application level continues to increase. In 2013, the poly silicon productions from 84,000 tons, an increase of 18.3%; import 80,000 tons; about 27GW solar module production, with a global share of more than 60%, an increase of 13%; 16GW in exports, exports were $ 12.7 billion. Rapid growth of the domestic market, new installed capacity ultra-12GW, cumulative installed capacity beyond 20GW, battery domestic sales ratio increased to 43% from 15% in 2010. Manufacturing industry-wide sales of 323 billion yuan of 209 billion yuan, system integration of 114 billion yuan.
Blind momentum slowed, industry concentration gradually increase. Guided by the policy and market changes affecting industrial sprawl must be cracked, many enterprises to increase the intensity of internal improvement, some backward production capacity to start withdrawing. Meanwhile, some of the merger and reorganization of enterprises will increasingly strong, appeared more than major mergers. First issued by the Ministry of industry and information technology, in line with conditions of the PV manufacturing industry codes list to see its 2013 polysilicon, silicon wafers, PV module, respectively, and 85.7% and 74% of the total national employee and sales accounting for photovoltaic industry, 58% and 78%. In 2013, the top 10 photovoltaic material sales revenue 23.6%, 63.6% per cent of the top 50 sales, the industry has developed gradually into the Eastern Jiangsu and Zhejiang, Anhui and Jiangxi provinces in Central, and Western and Northern Mongolia, Qinghai, Hebei, regional concentration.
Technology continued to improve, driven by innovation effect. Backbone enterprises in China has acquired million-ton polysilicon and crystalline silicon solar battery is a full-service technology, photovoltaic equipment localization rate continues to increase. 2010 has, each thousand tons more crystal silicon investment declined 47%, each kg polysilicon integrated energy declined 35%, polysilicon Enterprise per capita years production rose 165%, backbone Enterprise Deputy product utilization rate up 99% above; each MW crystal silicon battery investment declined over 55%, each w battery consumption Silicon volume declined 25%, backbone Enterprise Crystal, and more crystal and the silicon base film battery conversion efficiency by 16.5%, and 16%, and 6% respectively increased to 19%, and 17.5%, and 10% ; Investment in photovoltaic systems has decreased from 25/9/w.
Need to be aware of is that China PV industry development although the overall situation has improved, but still faces many problems and should not be blindly optimistic. First, material, equipment, and other key remaining gap with foreign advanced level of technology, basic research needs to be strengthened. Second, funding and policy support, such as too much emphasis in the application link, insufficient research and development and technology support to the manufacturing sector. Third, the power grid and other relevant policy refinement had yet to be implemented. Four is the deterioration of the international trading environment remains possible. Overall, the current PV manufacturing losses have not fundamentally changed, from the long-term point of view, the industry still faces deep correction.
Scale as chain links
China poly silicon, wafers, cells and modules and photovoltaic industry continues to expand the scale, photovoltaic equipment industrial scale slightly depressed.
2013 polysilicon production in our country increased, start-up enterprises steadily increased. Annual polysilicon production reached 84600 tons, the highest in the world, consumed about 34% of global production, return to 2011 peak, compared with 71,000 tons in 2012, by 18%. By the end of 2013, the national number of polysilicon production enterprises had increased to 16, in the capacity of 144,000 tonnes, in 2013, the apparent consumption of 164,000 metric tons of polysilicon production in our country compared to the volume of exports + imports-poly silicon, there are gaps.
In 2013, the year polysilicon imports reached 80654 tons, compared with generally flat, remained at a high level. Polysilicon-importing countries focused on Germany and the United States and Korea, respectively import 26,000 tons of polysilicon, 22,000 tons and 21,000 tons, 3 countries polysilicon imports accounted for more than 86.8%.
2013 wafer scale continues to expand in China. According to incomplete statistics, national 93 Home silicon ingots Enterprise total can reached 253,000 tons, total about 131,400 tons, compared with growth 5%; Silicon Rod annual can reached near 74,000 tons, total reached 41,000 tons, compared with growth 28%; wafer total can reached 10.3 billion tablets, production reached 7.2 billion tablets, national wafer total about for 29.5GW, and last year earlier of 26GW compared to, growth 13%, global accounted for than reached 75%.
From a business development perspective, China’s 10 largest wafer capacity reached 26.4GW, accounting for 64% of the total national capacity, production was around 21.52GW, some 73% of the country’s total output, capacity concentration is much higher than cell and module link.
Wafer exports increased in China in 2013, China’s exports reached US $ 1.694 billion silicon wafer, the export volume of about 7GW. Silicon chip to about 705 million dollars in exports, exports of 2.5GW, per cent of the total export volume of 36%.
2013 solar cell production scale expanded further, 42GW capacity, production reached 25.1GW. From 2012, the growth rate is about 20%, and accounted for 62% of the total global production, ranked top in the world. In terms of battery types, still dominated by multi, compared to about 78%. National capacity of about 42GW, module production reached 27.4GW, an increase of 19.1%, global production of about 63.7%.
In terms of industry concentration, my top 10 production 12GW, about the country’s total output of 52%. Hebei Yingli solar cell and module production are among the top in the world, Changzhou Tianhe’s cell and module production is second largest in the world. From our production distribution, the larger span, first known as Yingli 3.1GW, tenth Tai is about 0.7GW, averages 1.45GW.
In 2013, the solar module exports, 16.7GW, decreased 11.1% compared with 2012; about US $ 10.15 billion in exports, down 20%. In terms of regional distribution of exports, Asia has become China’s major export regions of solar cell, above 45% per cent of European exports continued to decline, down to 30%; exports accounted for approximately 14% in North America.
PV equipment industry in China despite the downstream components manufacturer Crisci, 2013, shipments rose sharply, but by a component transfer to the upstream equipment needs of relatively slow, 2013 scale PV equipment industry is slightly weak in China, continued to slide sharply. Overall, the 2013 our PV equipment industry’s total revenue of approximately 2.1 billion yuan, down 60%. Among them, the polysilicon link was about 800 million dollars, accounted for the total amount of 40%; Silicon ingot/wafer is approximately 500 million RMB; cell and module link 300 million Yuan and 500 million Yuan, respectively.
PV equipment-related companies nationwide reached more than 80 companies, employing more than 8000 people. Major equipment businesses, jiejia ranked revenue of about 200 million Yuan. Other photovoltaic equipment sales are concentrated on the 100 million ~2 billion yuan. Top 10 companies with total revenues of 1.37 billion yuan, photovoltaic equipment total revenues of about 65.2%.
According to statistics from China PV industry association in 2013, our new PV installed capacity reached 12GW, rose 166.7%, as the world’s largest market for PV applications, cumulative installed capacity close to 20GW, behind Germany ranked second in the world, when the annual cumulative PV power capacity reached 9 billion-kilowatt. 2013 solar power station installed capacity 12.1GW, distributed PV installed capacity 0.8GW.
Photovoltaic power plant, according to statistics from the National Energy Board in 2013, new grid-connected PV power station project is 468, new grid-connected projects installed capacity 12.1GW. 3842MW grid-connected photovoltaic power plant in Gansu province added capacity, higher ranks first among China’s provinces, accounted for more than 30% of the country.
Distributed PV connection, according to statistics from the National Energy Board, in 2013, China distributed PV new grid-connected capacity of 800MW. The end of 2013, distributed grid-connected PV cumulative capacity up to 3.1GW, mainly in the concentrations of power load in the eastern region. East China and North China today grid-connected capacity of 490MW and 1450MW, respectively, accounting for 60% of distributed PV. Top 3 provinces of Zhejiang, Hunan and Guangdong, respectively.
Growth in 2014 and the pressure
Solar industry polysilicon demand appears greater solar module output continues to grow, the photovoltaic market continued to expand, and so on.
PV industry in China after sustained losses during 2011 and 2012, and finally in 2013 for reverse hits, mainly photovoltaic companies achieve profitability, operating condition has been greatly improved. In 2013, the Government attaches great importance to PV industry in China, the State Council issued a Declaration on promoting healthy development of PV industry in China’s opinions and related documents have been adopted to implement, involving the largest central European PV trade disputes to reconciliation, which laid a solid foundation for industry out of trouble. Looking forward to 2014, photovoltaic industry will face a complex and changeable situations at home and abroad, PV-intensive introduction of the policy brought about by the positive, and uncertainty and further imbalance between supply and demand in the international market, such as adverse factors present challenges.
In terms of polycrystalline silicon, with the expansion of markets and raw materials, market demand for polysilicon is also improving. In addition, the world’s new production capacity and capacity utilization rate of return rose expected global production of about 280,000 tons, compared with a slight increase. About 110,000 tons of polysilicon production in China, production is concentrated in Jiangsu zhongneng, TBEA, daqo new energy firms. But because polysilicon products through processing trade abroad to avoid “double reverse” duties, continued low prices against our country, as well as increasing market supply and continuing decline in polysilicon production costs and other factors, is expected in 2014 product prices will remain at around 21 USD/kg, enterprises remain under price pressure.
In terms of battery components, along with the general improvement of the industry as a result of falling component prices make solar power cost and closer to even reach parity, expects global production continued to show growth, up to 43GW for the full year. PV modules in China is expected to exceed 30GW, industry concentration improved further. But because of polysilicon raw material, such as third-party solar cell prices, as well as the uncertainty in overseas markets, enterprises will also benefit from business pressures. Part of the spare production capacity have started industries will withstand the pressures of supply and demand.
Application markets, photovoltaic power generation costs continued to decline, the policy of continuous positive and favourable factors such as rapid rise in emerging markets, driven by the global PV market will continue to expand. Expected in 2014, the global PV installed capacity will reach 43GW, China will achieve 14GW, 8GW, distributed generation about 6GW of large-scale power station. But due to the power grid construction planning has not come on and power plant approval authority, local governments in pursuit of maximizing the interests of local fear to photovoltaic power plant construction and power grid construction and harmony and breeds problems such as power up light. In addition, the DG business model is not yet mature, more potential risk, large-scale promotion of resistance is still large.
PV policy, related ministries will have to implement that policy, through the expansion of domestic market and standardize the industry, promote technological progress combined to push for industrial development. It should be noted, and intensive policy can easily lead to the Government’s reach is long and cause side effects, if the implementation is not in place, out of place or distort the implementation process will easily become counterproductive, less is more.
2014 to good overall development of PV industry in China, but will remain under price pressure from oversupply. While industry will maintain steady growth, domestic PV market started on a large scale, but due to spare capacity of production and new capacity on stream, industry could face a new round of phased situation of excess production capacity, industry consolidation push still more difficult, market supply and demand pressures persist, businesses operating pressure is not reduced, together with external trade uncertainty, transformation and upgrading of industries face greater pressure.
Overview of global PV industry chain development
2013 global industry keeps growing and production capacity reached 387,000 tons, about 246,000 tons, an increase of 5.1%, increase focused mainly on solar grade silicon. Electronic grade poly silicon productions from about 26,000 tons, demand for about 25,000 tons, the production was concentrated in the United States, and Germany and Japan and a few other polysilicon manufacturers. Polysilicon production form a 4-state separation situation. In 2013, with 84,000 tonnes of ranked, United States at 59,000 tons came in second, followed by Germany, and Korea and Japan respectively to 46,000 tons, 41,000 tons and 13,000 tons. Global poly silicon industry concentration degree qugao, the world’s top 10 enterprises total capacity to nearly 278,000 tons of polycrystalline silicon, production of 215,000 tons, global production of about 87.7%.
2013 global wafer industry continues to expand the scale, global wafer capacity exceeded 57GW. Among them, the County around 40GW, China’s Taiwan is about 4.5GW. In addition, Europe is about 4GW. Global annual production was around 39GW, up 8.3%. Among them, about 29.5GW County, China Taiwan about 4GW. In addition, Korea ~ 1.6GW, ~ 1.2GW of Europe. From the perspective of developing regional and growing concentration of global shipments in Asia, Asia wafer capacity reached 52GW accounted for 91% of the world, production was around 37.7GW, accounting for about 97%. From the perspective of manufacturers, the top 10 of the world’s largest wafer capacity reached 26GW, production reached 23.1GW, 60% per cent of global production, industry concentration ratio continues to rise.
2013 global solar cell production capacity to maintain the momentum of growth, capacity of more than 63GW do not contain thin film solar cell production reached 40.3GW. From 2012, an increase of 7.5%, multi and monocrystalline silicon cell ratio is about 3:1. Development trend of solar cells is increasing, but in recent years has leveled off. From the perspective of developing regional, County 25.1GW output ranked first in the world, accounted for 63% of the total global production. China Taiwan and other regions of crystalline silicon solar cell production increased 55%, to 8.5GW, the second largest in the world. From the perspective of manufacturers, primarily 10 companies worldwide battery capacity up to 20GW, global production of about 33.3%, about 16.3GW, global production of about 40.7%, an increase of 2%.
Solar module production is still maintaining fast economic growth. 2013 a global capacity of more than 65GW, production reached 41.4GW, an increase of 11.3%. Area, China remains the largest producers of solar modules, production reached 27.4GW, is mainly crystalline silicon cell to 3.8GW production ranks second in Europe; Japan took third spot with production of about 3.5GW. From the perspective of industry concentration, global production top 10 production 16.3GW, accounted for 41.6%, up 2.5%, the top 10 companies were more than 1.1GW. Top 10 enterprise, China accounts for 6 seats, the United States occupied 2 seats. From the perspective of global shipments, top 10 Enterprise shipments reached 18.1GW, compared with yields of about high 1.9GW, shipments are largest for China’s Yingli to 3.23GW, followed by Trina, shipments to reach 2.5GW. In the top 10 companies, China 6, Japan occupied 2 seats, the United States and Korea each accounted for 1.
In 2013, the global thin film solar cell production is about 3660MW, an increase of 3.7%, 9% of the global PV module production, continue to fall slightly. From the perspective of enterprise, global thin film solar cell production is concentrated in CdTe cells as the representative FirstSolar, represented by CIGS cells, SolarFrontier, and represented by thin film silicon, hanergy holding company. In 2013, the 3 companies total 69.2% of global thin film solar cell production. From the perspective of product type, thin film silicon solar battery 500MW,CIGS about 1500MW,CdTe about 1660MW. From the perspective of regional distribution in mainland China about 260MW thin film solar cell production, down 35%, Japan shipments of thin film solar cell is 1011.7MW, an increase of 172.7%.
In 2012, the global photovoltaic industry overcapacity, PV equipment industry sales continue to slide to $ 1.75 billion, down 51.4%, record new orders of less than $ 1 billion. As the global PV market growth resumes, PV production line automation and fill a gap, as well as some manufacturers expand capacity will contribute to equipment vendor revenue rebounded. Solarbuzz research reports indicate that solar PV manufacturer’s equipment spending will start in 2015, enters a new phase. By 2017, the PV equipment spending and could even reach $ 10 billion.
In 2013, the rapid development of global PV Application market, the annual installed capacity reached 38.4GW, an increase of 20%, growth from 2012 to rebound sharply. Japan PV market explosion, 2013 global PV installed capacity market focus is accelerating towards Asia. In 2013, the new PV installed capacity up to 12.9GW, China, as the world’s largest market for PV applications; Japan throughout the new PV installed capacity up to 6.8GW, an increase of 300%; United States also maintained a fast growth, ranked third in the world. In contrast, Europe PV installed capacity dropped significantly throughout the year about 10.5GW, fell by as much as 40%, percentage of worldwide installed capacity in Europe also dropped sharply to 28%, accounting for the first time in nearly 5 years less than 50%.
Original title: 2014 analysis of photovoltaic industry development in China