Polaris solar PV net news: since the haze at the source of the culprit is coal, then the “large scale application of renewable energy and universal” should no longer be a part of the winter “occasional topic”, there is a way to make it faster?
Perhaps some people may scoff at: “new energy” well, that’s a sneak, but the situation never changed. This is related to China’s energy problems, is a problem that is unlikely to change in the 20 years.
The adjustment of energy structure. Indeed, this is probably already 20 years in the future to say decades of “China dream”. In 2015, although there is a certain amount of improvement of China’s energy structure, but the overall pattern is still not shaken:
Fossil fuels, coal, oil, the share of natural gas, and 64%, and 5.9%, respectively, accounted for a total of 91%; in non-fossil energy sources, hydropower accounted for 8.5%, nuclear power accounted for 1.4%, wind power accounted for 1.6%, solar 0.5%, tiny regardless of others such as biomass energy.
Changed for so many years, the structure remained the same. Interest is second, but in the current conditions is impossible.
So, first we need to know, renewable energy such as hydro, solar, wind, why not replace coal, wind power and photovoltaic power why is called “spam”?
Simply means that four points: high costs, unstable, conversion rate is low, the energy situation is poor. All associated with the technology.
Moreover, the construction of a thermal power plant, usually can run from hundreds of millions of billions of power, short construction period, returns quick; building a hydropower plant of the same capacity, investment is often times in thermal power plants to dozens of times, long payback cycle 5-10 years or more.
If you are an investor, you would choose the latter? (See Thomas g SolarCity heavy losses of status quo)
Solar power, the highest new energy industry in recent years, but many studies known as “power generation cost of renewable energy”. In China’s energy structure, it is negligible.
So today, we first talk about solar costs the problem.
MIT, according to media reports, as early as 2014, focused on renewable energy consultancy Ecofys has for the EU (global clean energy one of the most popular), environmental pollution, climate change, resource depletion cost and working capital and operating costs of PV power plants were analyzed.
In assessment process in the, according to a called for “flat associate of cost” of measurement standard (in not consider government subsidies of situation Xia, if in a a specific regional established and operation a power plant, on its in a a specific time paragraph within each MW Shi of cost for estimates, including estimates pollution, and land using and resources consumption of currency value), research personnel are of data analysis results following:
Assumes that the factory will increase capacity to most cases, EU new coal and gas plants “levelized cost” is only more than 50 more than €/MWh ($ 52);
Offshore wind’s “levelized cost”/MWh about 80 euros (US $84);
Utility/MWh solar photovoltaic power generation is about 100 euros ($ 105);
/MWh nuclear power generation is about 90 euros ($ 94.5);
Final conclusion is: the highest solar power cost, much higher than the wind, close to that of nuclear power.
In fact, cause of this result depends on a different parameter-calculation “energy cost”.
The researchers explained, because most of the world’s solar panels with “made in China” label, therefore, metal resources consuming and high cost makes solar power panels production costs increased significantly, more than wind power.
Meanwhile, China’s electricity is coal-intensive industries, and solar equipment paved area limited operation is unstable and low conversion rate, long recovery period, cannot be enabled large-scale cases, high costs is a necessary thing.
High cost means what? Businesses need to rely on Government subsidies to survive, photovoltaic power generation unable to mass adoption, innovation and manufacture lagging, technology research and development to advance slowly, capital concerns small … …
In fact, these aspects are linked together, cross. Is also difficult due to technical bottlenecks, will cost of solar power generation in the production chain on the cumulative number of large size will be limited.
In 2030, China will usher in the dawn of the popularization of solar power?
Recently, however, we are “still is shrouded in haze and find a direction” in China’s energy structure found an opportunity to expand the “rift”. This energy analysis in a recent Bloomberg report may give us some positive “hints”:
Since 2009, global prices have fallen 62%. Meanwhile, solar power each link in the supply chain to cut costs.
At present, the global average coal cost approximately 6~7 cents per kWh (~0.5 0.4 Yuan RMB), and in 2016, including Chile and the U.A.E., a number of developing countries have reached a number of costs and less than 3 cents per kWh of solar power contracts.
From a global perspective, is expected in the next decade, solar energy is likely to be the cheapest power source. However, in different countries, solar energy costs reduced speed will also vary greatly. In Europe and Brazil needs to import coal or charge “carbon tax” of regional and national, perhaps by 2020, coal and solar power cost in the first “glimmers of hope”.
Although China is the world’s largest solar market (installed capacity has exceeded Germany), but the energy structure dominated by coal, it may take until 2030 to bring solar costs to the level of coal.
Chief energy analyst at Bloomberg new energy finance JennyChase pointed out in the report, global 1MW average above ground solar system cost $1.14/W; by 2025, that number will be down to 0.73 cents, cost reduction 36%.
Solar energy costs over the next 10 years would be lower than coal, the picture from Bloomberg
In fact, as early as 2015, China Association of resources comprehensive utilization in China PV power parity roadmap gives a good prediction: by 2020 China PV cost can be reduced to 0.6~0.8/kWh,2030 year can be reduced to 0.6 Yuan per kWh.
It is clear that solar power cost reduction will help to reduce loans to related companies risk premium and production capacity will be raised to a new level.
And the Director-General of the international renewable energy agency AdnanAmin is some very surprising, solar power costs will change the pattern of the industry as a whole:
“Solar costs less than coal trend is increasingly becoming routine in the market. You will see, factory capacity every increase of 1 time, the price of solar power is reduced by 20%. ”
In other words, with scale and sales promotion and gradually reduce the margins, on the solar supply chain “Wal-Mart effect” will become more pronounced, “cheap” is a major solar energy industry development strategy.
Cost of building solar power stations. Picture from Bloomberg
Technology is the key to competition in the market is a “catalyst”
In fact, solar power boom has been going on for 10 years. “Technology” is to raise the level of solar power generation industry, the key to reducing production costs.
We have already mentioned that metals consumption and energy storage technologies are two important factors make solar power costs remain high.
But in past two years in the, regardless of is diamond line saw technology of upgrade (can more efficient to cutting Crystal wafer, this is Panel of main material), also is fuel battery technology of significantly improved, are in is big degree Shang reduced has solar industry in material, and making process and and the power application level Shang of many pain points, also makes solar finally can in and fossil fuel of competition in the gradually master has advantage status.
In addition, healthy competition within the industry has accelerated the decline in the cost of solar technology. Due to the very hot solar markets in emerging countries, solar photovoltaic companies from around the world are beginning to bid to snatch the market in the form of orders.
For example, in August of this year, Chile to bid the contracts signed by 2.91 cents per kWh, and the U.A.E. reached through big auctions held in the form of a price for 2.42 cents per kWh of solar power deal.
And Saudi Arabia, and Jordan, as well as Mexico and other countries also began plans to auction and bid as a way to further enhance the falling price of solar power.
The lower the price, the more hope of grabbing orders and in order to preserve profit margins, bidding companies must reduce the cost of technology. Therefore, solar system integrator made a bold prediction, solar power costs “downhill” speed would not be slowed down for a short time.
But in the end, the “lower cost” is just an important part of expanding the scale of the solar industry, but not all.
“Stability” by day, costs may be shrinking, but energy storage technology is the industry’s biggest “pain points.”
An industry source told the 36 krypton, want to improve energy storage technologies? Very difficult (waiting for someone to disprove). Only from “stable”, solar energy, wind energy can never be replace the thermal power.
But the development of solar energy, will see the change.
What’s more, energy is expensive is expensive, in fact, each region has a standard, but it ultimately depends on our willingness to pay the price for access to energy level.
In order to “anti fog”, do you want to continue to “Amway” solar do?
Original title: calls for using solar power to save “smog days”, but unfortunately it is still impossible