Polaris solar PV net news: on January 25, the China electricity Council held a press conference, publishing the national power supply and demand situation analysis and forecast report, 2016-2017.
Report 2016 PV on-grid price period cut policies, such as, the annual net increase of grid-connected solar power installed capacity of 34.79 million-kilowatt, an increase of 1 time, in national planning and policy guidance, more than half net increase of installed capacity is located in the Central and Eastern provinces. Grid-connected solar power capacity by the end of 77.42 million-kilowatt (most of the photovoltaic power generation), rose 81.6%; grid-connected solar power 66.2 billion-kilowatt, and an increase of 72%; grid-connected solar power equipment hours and 1125 hours, fell to 99 hours, drop down expanded 88 hours, abandoned part provinces in Northwest China is more prominent.
Following is the full text:
2016-2017-national electric power supply and demand situation analysis
In 2016, the growth in national electricity situation grew, power conversion and consumption structure continued to feature. Total electricity consumption rose 5%, growth is an increase of 4%. Run in the real economy shows steady good signs, summer heat, under the low base effect from a year earlier, three or four quarters of growth in power consumption of the whole society more quickly. Tertiary industry electricity volume growth 11.2%, continued keep high growth, displayed services consumption pull China economic growth role highlight; urban and rural residents life electricity volume growth 10.8%; secondary electricity volume compared growth 2.9%, manufacturing electricity volume compared growth 2.5%, manufacturing in the of four high energy industry total electricity volume compared zero, and equipment manufacturing, and emerging technology and the mass consumer industry growth momentum better, reflect manufacturing industry structure adjustment and transformation upgrade effect continues to appeared, Structural optimization of power consumption. National-caliber power capacity by the end of 1.65 billion kilowatt, rose 8.2%, excess power supply capacity further increase in local areas; non-fossil fuel electricity continued to grow rapidly, further to 4,165 hours hours of thermal power equipment, since 1964, the annual minimum. Coal supply and demand situation from loose to tight in the second half in the first half, overall electricity supply and demand easing, some regions of the country relatively surplus.
Looking ahead to 2017, electricity demand growth is expected to be slower than in 2016; the year installed a little over 100 million-kilowatt, power generation capacity at the end of about 1.75 billion kilowatts, raising the proportion of non-fossil fuel generation capacity further to about 38%; national electricity supply capacity overall surplus, excess in some areas. Hours further reduced to about 4,000 hours of thermal power equipment, power coal prices continue to run high, some provinces power user transactions larger price cuts and deals continue to expand outside power generation cost effective to dredge, coal and electricity enterprises will be further compressed, production and operation of enterprises continue to face serious challenges.
In 2016, the national electric power supply and demand
(A) electricity consumption grew, three or four quarterly growth
2016 national 5.92 trillion kWh of electricity consumption of the whole society, rose 5%, 4% increase over the previous year; each and every quarter over quarter growth 3.2% (deducting the leap-year factor increase of 2.1%), and 2.1%, and 6.5%. Sustained a wide range in the summer heat, the 2015 period low base running, real economy showed steady signs of getting better is the main cause of growth improved in the third quarter. After four quarters, consumption maintained stable and relatively fast growth of the whole society, apart from low base a year earlier, mainly because the real economy running steadily getting better more clear signs. In national advance to capacity policy, and infrastructure investment fast growth, and real estate and car market warmer, integrated effect Xia, building materials, and black and nonferrous metals smelting, important production price General is rose situation, market expected improved, its main products production growth gradually improve; also, traffic transport electrical electronic equipment, and General and the dedicated equipment manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and style supplies manufacturing, and wood processing and the furniture products industry, mass consumer industry growth also gradually rose, Support maintained a fast growth in consumption of the whole society.
Power consumption main features are:
One is the growth rate of secondary industries and the manufacturing sector improved over the previous year, transformation and upgrading of industrial structure adjustment and the effect continues to emerge. Secondary industry consumption rose 2.9%, is growing much faster than the previous year and 3.7% 2.5% growth in manufacturing sector, growth of 3.1% increased over the previous year. In the manufacturing industries, electricity growth industry of ferrous metal smelting, as well as low growth of chemicals, non-ferrous metal smelting industry behind manufacturing sector growth after the last three, and building materials industries in sixth place. In addition to high energy-consuming industry, most other manufacturing industries to maintain a certain level of growth, including equipment manufacturing, new technology and good momentum of growth in the consumer packaged goods industry, reflecting the current transformation and upgrading of industrial structure adjustment in manufacturing and the effect continues to emerge.
Second, the industry Power consumption of the tertiary industry and its rapid growth. Corresponding to the service sector maintained a fast growth, consumption of the tertiary industry rose 11.2%. Among them, the power in information transmission computer services and software industry grew 15%, continuing the momentum of rapid growth in recent years; transport, storage and postal services electricity consumption of 11.3%, 6.3% increase over the previous year, growth in power consumption for urban public transport 22.3%, electrified railway power 12.5%, reflect transportation energy alternatives in the area was strengthened.
Third, urban and rural residential electricity consumption is increasing rapidly. Annual electricity consumption rose 10.8%, 5.8% increase over the previous year, affected by temperature factor driving larger, in which the growth of 18.4% in the third quarter, a 10-year growth rate of urban and rural residents consumption quarter high; in addition, as China’s urbanization rate and level of electrification of the residents gradually improved, household consumption has been steadily increasing.
Four is the continuing growth momentum in converting power consumption, consumption continues to adjust. From electricity growth power see, 2016, secondary, and tertiary industry and urban and rural residents life electricity volume respectively pull society electricity volume growth 2.1, and 1.4 and 1.4%; secondary in the of four high energy industry on society electricity volume growth pull for zero, current, society electricity volume growth main power from Qian some years of traditional high energy industry, continued to services, and life electricity, and emerging technology industry and the mass consumer industry conversion.
Power consumption structure, in 2016, one or two, and urban and rural residential electricity consumption accounted for the proportion of electricity consumption of the whole society are 1.8%, 71.1%, 13.4% and 13.6%. Compared with the previous year, and the percentage of urban and rural residents consumption of the tertiary industry 0.7%; proportion of secondary industry 1.5%, four 1.5% reduction in proportion of total electricity consumption in high energy-consuming industry, visible, decline in proportion of secondary industries of electricity due to high energy-consuming industry decline.
Five is the East, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the central region’s leading before and after low-high trend. Eastern, Central, Western and Northeast China respectively growth in total electricity consumption, 5.9%, and 5.4% and 2.7% and East and central region’s electricity situation is relatively good, is the electricity the main engine of growth. Quarterly trend of electricity were low in all regions after trends, electricity improve more obvious since the second half of the regions.
(B) generating capacity growth, surplus power supply capacity in General
In 2016, the main electric power enterprise’s total investment grew by 3.3%. At the national distribution network construction and transformation plan of action and a new round of upgrading rural power grids and other policy guidance, grid investments grew by 16.9%, which accounted for 58% power grid with a total investment of 110,000 volts and below the grid investment rose 35.6%; to promote orderly development of coal-fired power stations under the influence of a range of policy measures, such as, power investments fell 12.9%.
In 2016, the national net generating capacity of 120 million kW, 21.86 million-kilowatt less than the previous year, including a net increase of non-fossil energy generation capacity of 72 million-kilowatt, close to last year’s level, while coal and electricity net scale down 11.54 million-kilowatt, control the pace of investment, optimize investment structure of electric power industry’s effects begin to emerge. By the end of 2016, national-caliber power generation capacity of 1.65 billion kilowatt, rose 8.2%, non-fossil energy 600 million kilowatts, share of the total generating capacity over the same 1.7%. Annual national total diameter capacity of 5.99 trillion kWh, an increase of 5.2%; 3,785 hour using hour of power generation equipment, compared with 203 reduction in hours.
Power supply the main features are:
A net increase of installed capacity of thermal power is decreased over the previous year, equipment utilization hours the lowest since 1964. In 2016, the thermal power investment rose to 0.9%, of which coal investments fell 4.7%, reversing the previous two years the momentum of sustained, rapid growth of investment in coal; net increase of thermal power installed capacity 53.38 million-kilowatt, down 19.83 million-kilowatt, which coal, electricity and a net increase of 47.53 million-kilowatt, down 11.54 million-kilowatt, coal investment and net size reduction reflects the Government’s policy to promote orderly development of coal-series measures the effect is obvious. The end of 2016, the national thermal power capacity of 1.05 billion kWh, an increase of 5.3% in full aperture, full aperture thermal power generating capacity grew by 2.4%, from 2013 to achieve positive growth for the first time. Equipment utilization hours of 4,165, reduced to 199 hours over the previous year.
Second hydropower investment decreased for four consecutive years, hours to maintain a high level of equipment. Hydropower investment fell 22.4%, has declined for four consecutive years; a net increase of water and electricity installed capacity 12.59 million-kilowatt, which pumped 3.66 million-kilowatt. The end of 2016, the national hydropower capacity of 330 million kW, an increase of 3.9% in full aperture. National hydroelectric generating capacity rose in full aperture of 6.2%, water changes and other factors, characteristics of the annual electricity production of high to low. Equipment utilization hours of 3,621 hours, increase over the previous year for 31 hours, annual third level for nearly 20 years.
Third, wind power investments decrease, Eastern and middle regions of NET installed capacity accounts for half. Wind electric investment declined 25.3%, first appeared declined, declined of area for West and Northeast, compared respectively declined 49.7% and 46.8%, and East, and central area compared respectively growth 35.1% and 13.1%, East, and central area wind electric investment share than last year sharply improve 22%; annual net grid wind electric installed 17.43 million-kilowatt, than last year reduced 16.84 million-kilowatt, which East, and Central share half, more Qian years obviously improve. Wind power investment and production decreased, layout, reflecting the timely adjustment of wind power development, enterprise investment and gradually rationalized, more emphasis on quality and efficiency. National grid-connected wind power installed capacity at the end of 150 million kW, an increase of 13.2%, the total installed capacity for 9%; grid-connected wind power generating capacity 30.1%, uses hour 1742 hours, an increase of 18-hour, but abandoned wind conditions are still prominent in the Northwest and Northeast.
Four are grid-connected solar power capacity and power generation growth, equipment utilization hours declined from the previous year. PV on-grid price period cut policies, such as, the annual net increase of grid-connected solar power installed capacity of 34.79 million-kilowatt, an increase of 1 time, in national planning and policy guidance, more than half net increase of installed capacity is located in the Central and Eastern provinces. Grid-connected solar power capacity by the end of 77.42 million-kilowatt (most of the photovoltaic power generation), rose 81.6%; grid-connected solar power 66.2 billion-kilowatt, and an increase of 72%; grid-connected solar power equipment hours and 1125 hours, fell to 99 hours, drop down expanded 88 hours, abandoned part provinces in Northwest China is more prominent.
Five are nuclear power installed capacity and power generation growth, equipment utilization hours continued to decline. Nuclear power investment compared declined 10.5%; end of national nuclear power installed 33.64 million-kilowatt, and compared growth 23.8%, electricity compared growth 24.4%; equipment using hours 7,042 hours, and compared declined 361 hours, has continuous 3 years declined, which, Liaoning nuclear power equipment using hours for 4,982 hours, main is for Northeast Power excess, and coupled with near two years more Taiwan nuclear power unit gradually production, led to part nuclear power unit drop load run even downtime alternate.
Six trans-regional, TRANS-provincial power growth is an increase. Growth in trans-regional power transmission 6.9%, 4.1% increase over the previous year, spanned volume growth mainly grid power transmission through Northwest UHV delivery to dissolve new energy and hydropower in Southwest. TRANS-provincial electricity output grew 4.8%, over a year earlier to 5.9%, grid sending electricity from West to East in the South grew 3.3%.
Seven is the national coal supply and demand situation from loose to tight, smooth supply of natural gas for power generation in General. Under the influence of coal capacity controlled production policy, decline in coal output fell by significantly more than consumption, resulting in power coal supply and demand imbalance, coal supply and demand situation gradually from a loose parts into tight, tense, sharp rise in coal prices, coal and electricity enterprises operating difficulties. A quarter of national gas demand rebounded, partial natural gas supply for individual regions were affected, and several quarters after overall smooth supply of natural gas for power generation.
(C) national power supply and demand further easing, surplus parts
In 2016, the excess power supply and demand further easing, some regions of the country. Subregional, regional electricity general balance of supply and demand in North, East, Central, southern regional general easing of supply and demand, the Northeast and Northwest regional power supply excess capacity.
Two national power supply and demand situation, 2017 forecast
(A) the growth in electricity consumption of the whole society than in 2016
Considering the macroeconomic situation, services and residential development trends, energy alternatives, real estate and automotive industry policy adjustments, the 2016 summer heat and other factors, at the annual air temperature level case is expected around 2017 national electricity consumption of the whole society grew 3%. Summer or winter extreme climatic fluctuations may lead to consumption of the whole society from top to bottom 1%; in addition, steady growth government policy measures at all levels adjustment may result in fluctuating electricity consumption of the whole society about 0.5%.
(B) capacity continues to just over 100 million-kilowatt, non-fossil energy accounted for further improving
Year national infrastructure added generation capacity around 110 million kilowatts, of which non-fossil fuel generation capacity around 60 million-kilowatt. Expected end of 2017-generating capacity will reach 1.75 billion kilowatts, non-fossil energy generating 660 million kilowatts and the proportion of the total installed capacity will rise to around 38%.
(C) the overall surplus power supply capacity, hours of thermal power equipment to further reduce
National electric power supply capacity in the overall surplus for the year is expected, among them, the regional electricity general balance of supply and demand in North China power grid, East China, central China, overall easing of regional electricity supply and demand in China Southern power grid, Northeast and Northwest China power grid more regional power supply excess capacity. Expected annual electricity generation equipment using hours about 3,600 hours, of which thermal power equipment hours, will fall to about 4,000 hours.
Third, the proposal
(A) persist in power planning guidance to guide, promote implementation of power “Thirteen-Five” development goals
Recently, my “Thirteen-Five” energy planning and planning, special planning released 2017 is the key to conscientiously implement various types of planning year, grasping implement is crucial.
A seriousness and authority is to improve the planning, ensure that the power development “Thirteen-Five” planned landing. Planning is the “Thirteen-Five” of energy and power development programme of action and the preparation of relevant planning guidance document, the layout of the basis for major projects. Recommendations based on the global power industry, strengthen planning and integrated energy planning, other special planning of cohesion, strengthening national planning and coordination of provincial planning convergence, adhered to the project planning guidance, project implementation plans, improve the planning authority.
Second is to improve the planning of scientific, instructive, planning rolling major amendments in a timely manner. During the planning and implementation of various influencing factors are complex and variable. Recommends the strengthening of planning and execution management, improve and implement planned mid-term evaluation mechanisms, relevant research work carried out in a timely manner, the rolling revision of the plan. According to the “Thirteen-Five” program, science set in 2020, 2030 energy consumption structure and objectives, appropriate reasonable interval to maintain power growth and flexibility.
Third, improve their overall planning, coordination, and strengthening local planning guidance and supervision of the work of relevant State departments. At present, the provincial energy (electricity) planning and implementation by the provinces (regions and municipalities). Suggests an increase in total quantity control of provincial electric power planning and involved national layout, and interprovincial transportation of regional power plans, and establish effective supervision and constraint mechanism, inhibition of local unreasonable investment impulse, strict control of coal-electricity development, ease the contradiction between supply and demand of electricity.
(B) improving the forecast and early warning systems and mechanisms to ensure power for economic development under the new normal and smooth operation
At present, China’s economic development into the new normal, the external environment and internal cause changes in the conditions, creating overlays, interactions, power brings a lot of uncertainty principles need to be problem-based, goal-oriented, focused and difficult, early warning, guide, timely action to ensure a smooth-running.
First, strengthening the investigation and analysis on new situation and problems in a timely manner. The “Thirteen-Five” period, the power complex development environment, frequent changes, particularly as decentralization, reform of electric power market, working on project approvals, power gravity sinks. Recommends that the relevant State departments to strengthen grass-roots research, field guide, timely information and analysis of electric power planning and implementation and operation of the new situations and new problems.
Second, improve the forecast and early-warning mechanism, timely manner to reduce risk. Power supply capacity of the current shows surplus, excess coal increased risk, especially in late 2016 unexpected soaring coal prices, all that power risks remain. Recommend a sound estimate index system of early warning mechanisms and, warning levels, and other related information in a timely manner to guide investment directions, science direct investment activities, promote the optimization, development effectiveness, reduce risk, and ensure development.
Third, perfect the policy “Toolkit”, acted in a timely manner. In complex situations, once market failure, an urgent need for government intervention in a timely manner, any policies that are based on research, analysis and discussion. Recommended power run situations and issues that may occur, advance research and planning, forming a series of policy options, according to the market at any time, “card”, a timely response to natural disasters and similar emergencies emergency problems such as soaring coal prices, to improve regulatory efficiency and effectiveness.
(C) the safe operation of new issues to ensure power system safe and stable operation and reliable power supply
Power demand continued to decline cases, generator set low, unit depth peak, frequent starts and stops, even nuclear power units participating peaking unit operating conditions has changed a lot, brings to the safe operation of the power system challenges and the urgent need to take measures to deal with.
Is promoting the main grid and network construction to optimize grid structure. Proposal as soon as possible to solve the “weak ankylosing” problem, hierarchical partitioning, scientific and reasonable strong grid structure. On China’s future development goals and overall pattern of forward-looking, systematic design, produced a clear, scientific layout, reasonable structure, easy to implement long-term grid plan, avoid repeated construction and technological transformation.
Second, strengthen network source management, strengthening the technical supervision and guidance. Electricity reform “grid separation” NET source after coordination and management, recommended that the national energy administration organizations to develop and improve the network security management-related special provisions to strengthen safety management, clear regulatory and primary responsibility for the implementation of full play to industry organizations and the role of intermediary institutions, strengthening the technical supervision and guidance.
III strengthening quality supervision, improve the reliability of electric main equipment safety. Recommends the strengthening of electrical equipment life cycle whole process safety management, perfect quality, operation and maintenance of equipment, standards testing and other areas. Major transmission channel node devices, overloading of power transmission and transformation facilities, low load operation monitoring, timely implementation of corrective measures to eliminate hidden dangers. Attention unit running at low load characteristics, equipment design and selection, strict quality control equipment.
(D) the solution to new energy to dissolve problem, reduce the unreasonable give up wind up light water
In recent years, China’s sustained and rapid development of new energy power generation, power structure continues to be optimized, but new energy was growing too fast, centralized, network sources is not harmonious contradictions, abandon the growing problem, transformation and upgrading of power bottlenecks, it is urgent to solve problems.
Are to change the thinking of new energy development, improving the quality of development. Recommends the strengthening of coordination between the new energy development policies, insisted on distributed development with focus on the development of a two pronged approach, based on local resources and absorptive capacity to develop differentiated development policies, optimizing development layout to curb sprawl, ensure water, abandoning wind, left rates at a reasonable level.
Second is to strengthen the construction of delivery channels, enhance the ability of resources allocation. Recommends that effective measures be taken, making full use of existing inter-provincial transmission channel; to plan as a guide, to resolve the issue as an important starting point for the current stock, accelerating the construction of the delivery channel, and expand new sources of power to dissolve and configuration capabilities.
Third, enhance the flexibility of the system and to improve power system peak capacity. On one hand, by accelerating the construction of pumped gas, peak power, promote the reformation of coal electric flexibility measures such as improving peak capacity on the other, further optimization of the power dispatching operation, improve demand-side response, accelerate the ancillary services market, peak and Valley electricity prices and a series of supporting policies and floor, improve peak enthusiasm.
Four is to strengthen coordination, break down the barriers, develop new market for energy power to dissolve. Strengthening wind electric, and PV power supportability acquisition about policy of implementation steering, perfect priority scheduling mechanism, break province between barriers, established conducive to new energy across district elimination na of market mechanism; advance can renewable energy and thermal power power right trading replacement, and can renewable energy alternative coal-fired owned power plant power, active promotion electric heating, variety form of power alternative, promote can renewable energy near elimination na; advance implementation can renewable energy power full supportability acquisition system, and corresponding established power run monitoring assessment system.
(E) increase policy support, reducing business costs and risks
At present, electricity demand growth slowed, falling prices, fuel costs rise, increased risk of excess capacity, energy saving renovation of heavy multiple contradictions woven overlay, enterprises are operating under severe stress and difficulties, it is urgent to increase policy support, create a good atmosphere for enterprise development.
One is to improve the coal linkage mechanism, reasonable ease coal enterprises sharply rising fuel costs. 2015 has twice lowered the national power of new coal-fired electricity price, direct transactions to further reduce power price, and fuel costs, environmental costs rise, continuing decline in coal and electricity use hour lead generation marginal costs are also rising, coal enterprise cost volatility significantly weakening resistance. Recommended improving coal linkage mechanism, re-adjust linkage period, price mechanism and other key with reasonable ease coal and electricity costs.
Second, further improve the mechanism of coal, electricity and environmental protection subsidies, renewable energy subsidies in full and on time. Recommends will coal electric environmental electric price subsidies adjustment for “price outside subsidies”, in market competition electric price zhiwai according to degrees electric standard give subsidies, guarantees participation market competition of electricity also can get due of environmental subsidies income; speed up solution can renewable energy electric price additional grants funds history debt problem, expanded subsidies funds source channel, simplified can renewable energy subsidies declared, and allocated process, ensure can renewable energy subsidies timely full issued in place, perfect can renewable energy power subsidies pricing mechanism and the related policy.
Thirdly, as soon as possible, according to “zombie firms” employees diversion, targeted policies such as bank debt relief. Tips to help power companies inefficient asset disposal losses and corporate governance work, and give some financial aid.
Four is to improve the policy of seriousness, consistency and stability. Recommendations overall pricing policies of the Government and State-owned capital preservation and appreciation, performance evaluation of State-owned enterprises related mutual cohesion policy, strengthening energy-efficient low-carbon policies in an integrated and coordinated, focused on top-tier design, give full play to industry, strengthen the guiding role of the market mechanism, reduce administrative costs and reduce the burden on enterprises.
Five is the Guide to promote energy alternatives. Adhere to the Government-led, national industrial policy formulation, planning, pricing policies and subsidies and so actively promote energy alternatives, to promote low-carbon clean development, increase the proportion of electric energy in final energy consumption, while promoting increased supply of electric power enterprise distribution, ease the contradiction between supply and demand of electricity.
(Vi) relationship between reform and development, promote sustainable development of power industry
(2015) issued the 9th, greatly mobilized the enthusiasm of the parties involved in the reform, but in the case of matching system is not perfect, imperfect mechanisms, liberalisation power too quickly, easily lead to vicious competition, is not conducive to market development and reform in an orderly fashion, needs to coordinate the relationship between the parties, actively and steadily promote reform.
Is coordinated and integrated power system, State-owned enterprise reform, reform of State-owned assets supervision and management system, such as multiple and industry development, improve relevant policies. Recommendation insists on guaranteed industries running at a reasonable interval and the healthy development of the premise, and promote industry reform and industrial regulation, ordered open electricity market transactions, avoid risk quickly gathered from various negative factors that stack, causing large operating losses of enterprises.
Second, to further improve the market system. Recommend sticking problem-oriented and goal-directed, conscientiously sum up the problems exposed in the power market construction in some areas, further improve the mechanism to further regulate market access, transmission and distribution price approved, trade institutions and other key aspects, a sound credit system construction of power market, established and trustworthy encouragement and punishment mechanism, strengthen direct trade contracts binding, contract implementation.
Third, strengthening the guidance and supervision of the provincial electricity markets work. Recommends that the relevant State departments in market access rules, and market rules, clean energy to dissolve, transmission and distribution price approved to strengthen guidance and supervision, corrected with unreasonable protectionist policies, maintain market order, ensuring effective promotion of electricity market reform.
Four are standard power plant management, and create a market environment for fair competition. As soon as possible perfection of self-provided power plant management policies and regulations, power plant, additional government funds and cross-subsidies imposed in place, contribute effectively to the implementation of policy cross-subsidized electricity prices, while effective regulatory mechanisms to establish and perfect the power plant.
Original title: ITU Publications in the national power supply and demand situation analysis report 2016-2017