Polaris solar PV net news: in 2015, as the “Twelve-Five” final year, is unusual on the development history of China’s new energy a year. This year, grid-connected wind power, photovoltaic capacity both at the world’s first high point model base on PV leader, solar-thermal electricity, new energy micro-grid, photovoltaic, and other forms of new energy development for poverty alleviation brilliant. However, in economies in transition, economic growth is shifting and installed another high background, “abandoned the wind”, “the abandoned” once again became unbearable for new energy development, “growing pains”. “Thirteen-Five” is deepening reforms, promoting the revolution in energy production and consumption to accelerate energy an important period of transition, at the time of change of China’s new energy industry need to be standing at a new starting point, and grasp the opportunity to achieve new breakthroughs. 2015 highlights five new energy development in China in 2015, further adjusting and perfecting new energy policies and actively promote new energy innovation, exploring new ways for the development of new energy, creating a new situation in the development of new energy in our country. 2015 development highlights five of the new energy in our country.
Highlight: record high PV on-grid capacity, end of 2015 is expected to surpass Germany one of the world’s first
Since the beginning of 2015, as the country’s support to further increase, photovoltaic power generation costs, PV market demand at home and abroad, PV power plant investment enthusiasm. Third quarter of 2015 years ago, PV manufacturing industry output value of more than 200 billion yuan in China, PV enterprises profitability improved markedly, average gross margin over the ten component companies prior to 15%, most enterprises out of the red. PV Unit investment continue to decline, PV module price has fallen to about 4/w, photovoltaic power plant development and construction cost dropped to 6~7/watts, power plant profitability improved significantly. Top 20 component manufacturers in the country, almost all involved in downstream of hydropower development in business. 2015 1 in September, the national cumulative PV power installed capacity of 37.95 million-kilowatt, an increase of 161%, where the PV power station 31.7 million-kilowatt, distributed PV 6.25 million-kilowatt, new installed capacity 9.9 million-kilowatt new threat definitions. In September, to support new energy model city, green energy demonstration counties as building photovoltaic power plants, National Energy Board increased 2015 PV power plant construction in some areas, bringing the 2015 issued by the National Energy Board new photovoltaic power plant construction reached 23.1 million-kilowatt. According to preliminary calculations, the end of 2015, our photovoltaic generating capacity more than 40 million-kilowatt has no suspense, and is expected to surpass Germany as the world’s photovoltaic power generation for the first nation.
Point two: start construction of solar thermal power generation demonstration project
Resource condition, solar-thermal power generation is no benchmark price policy and other factors, slow development of solar-thermal power generation in China, currently the solar thermal power industry is still in its infancy. By the end of 2014, China has built experimental demonstration of solar thermal power stations (System) 6, size about 13800 kW; solar thermal power station of previous work carried out 18, size 901,000 kW; national record (grant) solar thermal power stations under construction 12, installed capacity of 493,000 kilowatts. To expand the scale of the solar thermal power industry, nurturing system integrator},20 coincidence in September, National Energy Board BU on the Organization construction of solar thermal power generation demonstration project notice, decided to organize a number of demonstration projects on solar thermal power. Trough and Tower-oriented demonstration project, required capacity of not less than 50,000-kilowatt, required to configure storage devices, and storage capacity to meet short-term cloud cover without stopping the machine, ensure steam turbine power rating of not less than 1 hour. According to the initial declaration of results and statistics, accumulated over more than 100 project participants declare, declare capacity reached 8.83 million-kilowatt, about 1 million-kilowatt project wins final.
Highlight three: photovoltaic demonstration base of leading or opening Eastern PV development in new era
June 2015, the Ministry, National Energy Board, the CNCA jointly issued the Declaration on the promotion of advanced solar technology products and opinions on industrial upgrading and introduce PV “leader” project, including the construction of photovoltaic power generation demonstration base of advanced technology and new technology application demonstration project, project uses advanced technology products is required. National advanced technology in mining subsidence area in Datong, Shanxi has become the first approved PV PV demonstration bases leading demonstration projects are exploring solar power generation, renewable energy and control coal mining subsidence combined mode. Base plan 2015 years construction size 1 million-kilowatt, until 2030 to build 3 million-kilowatt, and subsequently, yangquan city, baotou, Jining, also combined with wood features the preparatory report, is expected to become the new leader in PV demonstration bases, General Declaration reached 5 million-kilowatt, in addition, Jiangxi, Anhui, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Hebei cities in preparation for the leader of Al-Qaida’s declarations. Based on advanced technology photovoltaic demonstration base, develop new technologies, new models, new path model, for resources on relatively tight in the eastern region the development of photovoltaic power generation brings new opportunities to promote PV industry technology, optimizing layout of photovoltaic power generation, PV Application market is of great significance in Eastern expansion.
Highlight four: new energy micro-grid demonstration and explore new business models and new formats
Volatility for exploring contain a high proportion of renewable electricity transmission (with) storage with integration of local power system, power energy services, new business models and new formats. In July 2015, the National Energy Board issued the guidance on promoting the construction of new energy micro-grid demonstration projects. New energy micro-grid has two main types of demonstration projects, one is the networking micro-grid, the technical requirements are no more than 110,000-volt and exchange of power outlets and time controlled, renewable power and peak-load ratio of greater than 500Ic; has the ability of Islanding. Two independent micro grid, technical requirements are powered by AC bus; renewable power consumption and peak-load ratio of greater than 500Ic; reliability is not lower than similar levels, this new energy micro-grid demonstration is the biggest breakthrough, allowing micro-grid high voltage levels at 110,000 volts, subversion at home and abroad concerning the definition of micro-grid. In the environment of electric power system reform BU, new energy micro-grid demonstration projects may be placing before the electricity market opening policies, became de facto liberalization of the placing of the pilot.
Highlights five PV accurate poverty poverty alleviation pilot exploring expanding PV market and win-win
On PV in jinzhai County, Anhui Province, on the basis of pilot experiences on poverty reduction, the National Energy Board and the poverty alleviation Office under the State Council organization in Hebei, Shanxi, Anhui, Gansu, Ningxia and Qinghai photovoltaic pilot project for poverty alleviation in six provinces. Each province to choose 5 counties, making the village as a whole. Includes households with distributed PV PV poverty alleviation pilot project, based on the barren slopes and agricultural greenhouse, two forms of terrestrial photovoltaic power station. As 20 skillfully years September end of, as PV poverty pilot of Hebei, and Anhui, six province and non-pilot provinces of Chongqing are has been determine 20 skillfully years PV poverty pilot implementation programme, total scale over 1.2 million-kilowatt, and from pilot project implementation situation view, Anhui Province PV poverty work advance more fast, in households with PV poverty project aspects, has been grid 8763 households, each households 3-kilowatt, jimu in jinzhai County; in village collective power station project aspects, has been grid skillfully 2 a, each 60-kilowatt, jimu also in jinzhai County ; In terms of ground station, jinzhai and Lixin counties 100,000-kilowatt PV project preliminary scheduled for commissioning in late 2015. PV is a new approach to poverty alleviation work for poverty alleviation, development of rural resources, slope roof can take full advantage of distributed PV, to promote poor people’s income in the area of employment, expansion of the domestic PV market, improving the conditions of rural energy, has been listed as the State Council poverty alleviation Office 2015 “ten precise poverty reduction project”.
Situation of China’s new energy development
Economic growth into the new normal, electricity demand growth has slowed
“Thirteen-Five” planning period is China economic into new normal Hou of first a five years, with economic growth from high-speed Steering in the high-speed, power needs growth also will into in the high-speed stage, and with economic structure of optimization and industrial structure of optimization, units output energy and the power consumption are will is BU drop trend, power elastic continues to BU drop, and 2015 by economic growth further slowed, and structure adjustment in-depth advance and “cool summer”, factors effect, is expected to annual society electricity volume growth only for 1% around, Lowest level since reform and opening up. The CPC Central Committee for formulating national economic and social development set by the recommendations of the 13th five-year plan “Thirteen-Five” during the annual economic growth by more than 6.5% expected electricity demand is expected to rise by about 6%.
From a macro viewpoint, needs a new engine of economic growth in transition, new energy industries as strategic industries will usher in a new development opportunity from micro-layer in the wind and the total installed photovoltaic power reached 150 million kW, and power under the background of weak demand growth, relying solely on policy to address new energy markets to dissolve is probably unrealistic. In 2015, with the record high scale development of wind power, solar power, both ranking first in the world, Western Gansu and Xinjiang wind power, photovoltaic power to dissolve the grim situation. New energy sources must be “weaknesses”, hard skills, reducing cost and increasing efficiency, to Bo, occupies a strong position in the fierce competition in the electricity market.
Promoting the reform of power, new electric power system is under construction, new energy and how to adapt to the new situation, no consensus
Since March 2015, CPC Central Committee State on further deepening power reform of several views (following referred to 9th, paper) issued yilai, has introduced on improved power run regulation promote clean energy more sent full sent of guide views, and in Gansu, and in Inner Mongolia carried out can renewable energy near elimination na pilot; introduced on implement Central 9th, file spirit speed up advance lost distribution price reform of notification, and in Shenzhen, and in Inner Mongolia, and Anhui, and Hubei, and Ningxia, and Yunnan six a area carried out pilot. Also, also has on lost distribution price reform of implementation views, and on advance power market construction of implementation views, and on power trading institutions formed and specification run of implementation views, and ordered put development electricity plans of implementation views, and on advance sale electric side reform of implementation views, and on strengthening and specification coal-fired owned power plant supervision management of guide views, 6 a supporting file is introduced.
According to the 9th article of the spirit, new energy as a public power industry, the Government will retain its power generation plans, and in accordance with the plan affordable to buy. According to the supporting documents, the State established the right of power generation systems, clean power priority grid, through sufficient space power plan, power delivery, unified predictive power, organization and implementation of alternative measures, such as giving priority to power generation right, enjoys the right of power enterprises and users, initially not participate in market competition. “Thirteen-Five” is the crucial period of the implementation of the 9th article of the State Council, plan and market trading under the two-track system, implementation of new energy generation right of priority is still facing many uncertainties. New energy development experience from Europe and the United States, in a competitive electricity market, wind power, photovoltaic power generation by virtue of its low marginal costs, by participating in market competition naturally give priority to Internet to dissolve, easier to implement new energy to dissolve. Therefore, the industry about how the new energy is involved in the electricity market, participation in the electricity market, knowledge is not uniform.
Lower gateway to the wind power and PV on-grid price
In accordance with the strategic action plan for energy development (2014-2020) the request made by 2020 wind power and coal power price, photovoltaic power generation and grid sales price. In wind power, photovoltaic installed capacity exceeds 100 million-kilowatt, generating cost has dropped significantly, power subsidy arrears under the background of serious problems, the “Thirteen-Five” period, the onshore wind power, photovoltaic power generation lower gateway to the benchmark price. According to the national development and Reform Commission on improving onshore wind power, photovoltaic power benchmark price policy notice (discussion paper), will pursue the onshore wind power, photovoltaic power benchmark price with the price policy of gradually reducing the scale of development. Starting from 2006, new benchmark onshore wind power price 0.02~0.03 Yuan/kWh a year; new benchmark PV price 0.02~0.05 Yuan/kWh a year. Abandon wind effects, subsidies in arrears, not new energy price adjustments in time, new energy development in a “high subsidy, high growth, high power, high arrears” cycle, restricts the development of new energy. This pricing policy adjustment mode, will help guide the new energy investment for a long time, improve the efficiency of additional renewable electricity price subsidies, promotion of new energy sources such as wind power, photovoltaic power generation industry healthy and orderly development, promoting the development of new energy balance.
“Thirteen-Five” new energy development
The “Thirteen-Five” period is an important period of China’s new energy development, to promote energy production and consumption revolution, the overall strategy of strengthening ecological civilization construction, and 2020 non-fossil sources of energy account for the share of primary energy consumption target of 15%, has made it clear the new energy in energy structure in China’s strategic position. Meanwhile, wind power, solar energy industry as a national strategic industry, it is important to promote China’s economic restructuring and industrial upgrading. Although price will decline, but the State subsidies for new energy policy, new energy priorities to dissolve the incentive policy will not change. “Thirteen-Five” will continue to be important opportunities for the development of China’s new energy industry, new energy development trend will not change.
Wind power industry into the stationary growth phase, despite the “three North” area growth slowed, but centralized large-scale development of wind power in China, the primary pattern does not change. With the installed capacity of wind power in China entered the era of million kilowatt, wind power industry in our country can be said to enter the “young adult” period. In power market reform of big background Xia, in scale and benefits of weigh, and abandoned wind or price of choices, and power and capacity market of game, and drop electric price and increased additional of two-way incentive in the, wind electric industry of development will return rational and ordered, “Thirteen-Five” during wind electric keep annual added installed 20 million-kilowatt around, 2020 years wind electric installed reached 200 million-kilowatt above is can achieved of, through mechanism innovation, and expanded elimination na range, serious “abandoned wind” problem can get solution.
From development, while taking into account the absorptive problems, dispersed in Eastern countries increased in the scale of development of wind power, but the wind resource distribution and characteristics of wind turbine technology centralized large-scale development-oriented wind patterns will not change. On one hand, China is rich in wind energy resources, mainly in the “three North” area, Jiuquan, Gansu, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Hebei bashang, Western Jilin, Heilongjiang and other regions accounted for more than 80%. The other hand, wind power development and occupation of the land, the Visual impact and noise of the fan determines the population density, scarce land resources in the eastern region, and scale of development is very limited. According to the wind “Thirteen-Five” planning and preliminary results, 2020 distributed in Eastern and central China onshore wind development is only about 25 million-kilowatt, the “three North” area wind power development wind power development will remain as a share of total 64%.
Rely solely on local absorptive cannot fundamentally solve “three North” area of new energy to dissolve the problem, you must crack the new energy challenges. According to wind electric planning research results, 2020, Northwest, and Northeast, and North wind electric installed of share will respectively reached 25%, and 20% and 10%, preliminary measuring, 2020, northwest province within can elimination na wind electric of proportion for 54%, and across provinces elimination na of proportion for 46%; Northeast province within can elimination na wind electric of proportion for 59%, and across provinces elimination na proportion for 41%; North province within can elimination na wind electric of proportion for 69%, and across provinces elimination na proportion for 31%. Therefore, must rely on technological innovation and mechanism innovation, and cracking the new energy challenges, promote the development of wind power industry into a virtuous circle.
Overall will still maintain a rapid growth of photovoltaic, PV development is expected to realize a new breakthrough in the East, will present new situation in the East, middle and West simultaneously; along with a number of pilot projects, solar-thermal power generation is expected to achieve new breakthroughs. The “Thirteen-Five” period, as the cost of photovoltaic power continued to decline, photovoltaic power generation will still maintain a rapid growth, are expected to cross the 100 million-kilowatt mark. With the “Twelve-Five” two years after the development of the photovoltaic industry momentum, 2020 China PV power over 100 million-kilowatt is possible.
From the development, the “Thirteen-Five” period, China’s solar photovoltaic development pattern will be adjusted. “Twelve-Five”, our photovoltaic power mainly to Central ground station in the West. At present, the West accounted for 70% of total installed PV power capacity, only 30% in the East, this mode of development has brought recently in Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Ningxia and other provinces in the West of the PV power plant “abandoned” power. Distributed in the eastern region under the situation of the photovoltaic market is difficult to break, PV leads the model base construction started for the development of the East of photovoltaic power generation market to find a new model. The “Thirteen-Five” period, taking into account the electric power system of distributed PV potential release, leading PV demonstration project increased and photovoltaic projects, and by 2020, China PV development in East, middle and West simultaneous development of new situation.
With the National Energy Board demonstration electricity prices to promote solar thermal demonstration project, “Thirteen-Five” period, the benchmark price policy of solar thermal power could be on the cards, development of solar-thermal power in China is expected to realize the new breakthrough after 2020 solar-thermal power 3 million-kilowatt development goals will be broken. Consider the normal direct radiation from the Sun, topography and land, water resources and other factors, “the Thirteen-Five” during the development of key areas including Western Inner Mongolia alashan League and the Ordos area, Western Hexi corridor in Gansu, Qinghai and other regions.
Original title: forward-2016: photovoltaic, wind turbine layout “Thirteen-Five”?