Arctic star solar PV network news: light hot power which a important advantage is can through cheap storage hot technology achieved can adjustable stable green power of production and supply, this can adjustable power of quality similar Yu traditional thermal power, but currently in cost Shang is and than traditional thermal power high out many, light hot power industry needs concern of is, future six years, that to 2020, light hot power whether will can and traditional base Dutch type thermal power in cost photogenic competition?
Reason that 2020 is due in 2020 is the United States Energy Department had proposed the SunShot schedule when the target node, that is when the realization of solar thermal electricity costs down to 6 cents per kWh, this price can be said to have been little more than a conventional gas-fired generation. Towards this goal, can achieve this? We listen to Spain two solar-thermal power ACSCobra Jos é AlfonsoNebrera, Chief Executive of leading enterprises and Abengoa, Director of strategy at ElisaPrieto point of view.
The two companies are working to achieve parity of solar-thermal power generation by 2020 goal, overall, both towards this goal remains optimistic, they believe it can be achieved. In their view, the siting of the power station, gas prices in different markets, in 2015, the United Nations Conference on climate change resolution on new emission reduction targets for carbon dioxide, and so are environmental conditions to achieve this goal.
Gas prices will continue to rise
Nebrera said, “our current if the DNI is very rich in resources of building solar thermal power plants, its costs have been able to compete with gas, gas prices are now hovering at $ 10 per million British thermal units (BTUs), as well as utilization of natural gas power stations only around 70%, environmental cost of carbon dioxide emissions increased by approximately $ 20~30 per ton. ”
Although the United States terms of shale gas production, optical-thermal power generation sector, external factors are not optimistic. But not sure if natural gas prices can maintain price competitiveness, such as now, according to the United States energy information administration EIA data shows that over the past two years, United States natural gas prices are at record lows.
Prieto said in 2012, gas prices average about $ 3 per million British thermal units, the price is not realistic and does not comply with the market rules, led directly to the many natural gas producers shut down to wait for the market to improve, why is there this situation? Because 2012 is a United States shale gas production the crazy year, similar to the 19th century, that kind of nuggets in the rise of the tide.
Shale gas production has brought a lot of problems in the exploitation of shale gas, the vast majority of accidents and technical problems occurred in the process of hydraulic fracturing. In the United States in Philadelphia (Philadelphia), the local Government has begun to regulate shale gas drilling this industrial activity, in some towns in New York State, due to water resource issues, hydraulic fracturing has been used.
“In this case, these companies began facing two regulatory issues: one is when you need them in the exploitation of shale gas what chemicals are injected into the water? Second, asking them to clean up because of the negative impact of shale gas. This resulted in natural gas prices began to rise. “Prieto said.
In fact, the EIA based on accelerated aging coal-fired power plants and nuclear power plants predicted that over the next few years, gas prices continue to rise, even more important is that in electricity production, the EIA said natural gas consumption will keep increasing, which will lead to gas and electricity prices upward growth.
EIA report showed overall growth of gas prices over the past few years, the following table is a HenryHub natural gas spot prices over the past four years, has provided since January 2011 and the first week of July as the reference price of natural gas.
Photo: gas prices
In Egypt, for example, according to a Reuters report, Egypt has been unable to export natural gas, over the past 10 years, Egypt domestic gas consumption increasing rapidly, achieving double the amount for personal use, depletion of recoverable reserves.
In January 2013, natural gas costs about US $ 3.26 per million British thermal units, a year later in January 2014, the price had risen to $ 4.30, up 1.04 dollars a year.
Prieto also highlights selected formulas, calculate the cost of solar thermal power generation the importance of “competitiveness when we are talking about light and heat, we can only use the LCOE computation, as CAPEX is a one-time investment cost does not reflect the true costs of solar thermal power generation. ”
She also highlighted the cost per kilowatt of solar-thermal power generation is a steady decline throughout the plant’s life cycle, thanks to its fuel expenditures.
From the perspective of traditional energy sources, even if CAPEX was low, the cost per kilowatt is still possible because the fuel cost increases of the late, whether they are coal, natural gas or nuclear power, this is true.
Chu Re and the importance of adjustable power
The two experts pointed out that solar thermal power generation compared to photovoltaic power generation is concerned, its heat storage capacity is a unique advantage; PV output may continue after the sun sets in order to meet the need to increase the reserve power plant building, for the incorporation of these plants to increase investment in grid construction will also increase costs.
Adjustable in terms of cost, Prieto pointed out that United States national renewable energy laboratory by SunShot plans targeted to 5~6 cents to the cost of solar thermal power generation, we get potential of solar thermal power generation when compared with other renewable energies taken, this is an important piece of data.
Targets to reduce carbon emissions
Nebrera says, “can look forward to in 2015 will be in France Paris the United Nations climate change conference will be held on global climate change solution that gives further, more stringent targets to reduce carbon emissions. If the price per ton of carbon dioxide emissions in developed countries was set at 50 dollars, developing countries had been set at US $ 20, which will open up a big market for renewable energy development, especially adjustable solar-thermal power generation will have greater market space. ”
Prieto believes that new emissions reduction targets set would have a direct negative impact on the natural gas industry, natural gas industry will likely have to pay two fees, one cost, one is the cost of carbon dioxide emissions.
Another impact natural gas prices is the power utilization, natural gas annually in real terms the longer running, lower the overall costs of, for example, annual operating hours at more than 8,000 hours, the cost per kWh will be very low, if run hours in only 2000 hours, the cost per kilowatt is very high.
For countries with a large proportion of renewable energy applications, combined cycle power plant is the most common type of natural gas, which is beginning to play the role of standby power.
He also pointed out that solar thermal power generation cost has decreased over the past few years, in 2008, we began construction of Spain the Andasol solar thermal power station, which is costing about $ 280 per MWh. Now, South Africa’s actual bid price is almost half that price, I think over the next 6 years, the costs will continue to decline, I bet it will at least now price dropped again on the basis of 30%.
Influence of power plants
Prieto and Nebrera said, cost competitiveness depend on the characteristics of the project site, such as the siting of the power station, local climatic conditions, latitude, temperature, and the density of suspended particles of dust or affect the actual cost of the project.
Each market has a very unique set of circumstances, in Saudi Arabia, linked to the competitiveness of renewable energy and opportunity cost, according to a report published by the Economist magazine, in 2012, the Saudi market there is a huge opportunity cost, rapid increase in domestic energy demand is one of the important reasons.
The report also said that Saudi Arabia as the world’s sixth-largest oil consumer, its consumption of one-fourth oil production, about 10 million barrels a day of crude to domestic markets to digest.
But Saudi Arabia has recognized this problem, and has set an ambitious target for renewable energy development, that is, about half of its power from renewable energy by 2020 to meet growing domestic demand for energy, in Exchange for more oil exports. A longer-term goal is, by 2032, 54.1GW renewable energy generation capacity, with 25GW will come from solar-thermal power generation.
2030 goal closer to reality
Not everyone believes in 2020, achieve the goal of solar-thermal power generation to compete with conventional energy reality, Spain some industry officials say that “CAPEX of solar-thermal power generation remains a huge challenge, invested 500 million euros in most thermal power stations can be built as a 160MW~200MW light, but only investment of 300 million to 400 million euros will be able to build a double the installed capacity of gas-fired combined cycle power plants. ”
Nevertheless, solar-thermal power still has a lot to further optimize to optimize further investment, there are industry experts, a more neutral point of view is that by 2030, solar-thermal power can be achieved with the traditional cost of gas and other fossil fuels to generate electricity in photogenic competition, judging from the current situation, this view appears to be more close to reality.
Also, these people also support price cuts depend on the trends of the market development and actual needs, “where there is no natural gas or gas transportation cost is high where the construction of a gas-fired combined cycle power plants is not economically feasible, while here the construction of a solar thermal power plants will be much more cost-effective. ”
Original title: solar thermal power generation by 2020 and cost of traditional thermal power in photogenic competition?