Chinese PV flocked to Japan: another pit?

Polaris solar PV net news: Japan PV market, enviable, but it may also be a hole.

Japan became China’s PV market sweet pastry.

The latest news is that, once the world’s largest solar companies Suntech Power Limited (hereinafter referred to as Suntech), after undergoing a year of bankruptcy reorganization, current CEO Luo Xin ambitiously announced that over the next 3 years, Japan invested nearly 2.5 billion US dollars building a 1GW of photovoltaic plant, thereby stimulating sales of its components.

This action does not suddenly. 2011 Japan after Fukushima, Japan Government began the development of renewable energy, solar subsidies for the highest in the world. Subsequently, including Shanghai Electric group, hareon, GCL-poly, Yingli Green energy, a large number of Chinese companies on Japan PV market in droves. First half of this year, Japan has become China’s photovoltaic products in export markets.

Worry is that portion of the global PV market is still at a low ebb at present, in the US and Europe several rounds of anti-dumping, anti-subsidy investigation in the vitality of the Chinese PV industry rushed Japan market, will form a new round of cut-throat competition?

Bigger problem is that coveted high subsidies are about to expire. Bloomberg new energy finance Japan PV market analyst wuguangchuanyuan (TakehiroKawahara), told reporters that Japan high subsidies in June 2015, slashing, when more than 1MW new large-scale PV power plant project will be difficult to build. In other words, does this mean that those who invest in Japan-funded firms will find a field?

Unknown

Suntech to seize Japan has some inherent advantages.

Changzhou shunfeng photovoltaic PV Gong Xuejin, Deputy Chief, told reporters, Suntech earlier in Japan market has been certified, and at one stage it was Chinese companies in Japan first place in sales. At that time, Suntech and lots of Japan distributors to establish a good relationship of cooperation, currently restarting Japan marketing, Suntech has a natural advantage.

Bloomberg new energy financial provides of data displayed, as 2014 second quarter, Japan market in the, Qian six big China enterprise of market accounted for than has reached 42.1%, they respectively is crystal o solar limited (Xia said Crystal o), and days collection light limited, and hanwha new energy limited, and solar solar limited, and British Lee Green energy holding limited, and Yu fai energy limited and Crystal section energy holding limited.

Among them, ja the largest market share, or 13.1%. Ja is currently in Japan sales channel has two, one for the Japan local companies doing contract work, and the other is to set up their own Japan Branch, to sell their components. Meanwhile, ja is also actively developing downstream PV power plant project.

JA Cao Bo, Deputy Chief, the company was able to in Japan took the sales Crown, there are two reasons, first is a layout early. From 2011 onwards, ja is bullish on Japan market prospects, prepare for a long time, a variety of certification. Followed by the production using the fully-automated, compared with artificial production, ensuring the precision quality of products.

Luo Xin announced at a public press conference, Suntech does not want to compete with other peer companies to lower prices, its components will not be less than the price of 4.8 yuan per watt/Watt. At present, the average selling price of domestic photovoltaic components at 3.9 Yuan per watt, a leading brand of the highest selling price of only about 4.2/Watt. Because of the high prices, Suntech production premium components can only supply now belongs to the Group of Changzhou shunfeng photovoltaic PV project, Suntech and actively promote the Japan market, apparently because their high cost subsidies must be found, the market, is profitable.

But advantage by virtue only of Suntech’s sales in the past, whether in degree to compete with companies like ja, is still an open question.

Risk

With 2012 and 2013 focus on component sales, digestive capacity strategy is different, Chinese companies increasingly eager to pass in Japan directly to build their own solar power station, which can not only achieve the purpose of digestion capacity, can also be in the field of power plant construction to be richly rewarded.

However, the risk must also be taken into account in the construction of power station projects. On September 12, the Japan Government announced the end of fiscal year 2012 is approved but does not 1.82G in the construction of solar power projects, and is holding hearings on the item 2.7GW, considering whether to cancel it.

Vice Secretary-General of China PV industry association said Wang Shijiang, up to now, Japan the PV power plant project has been awarded up to 60GW, that does not mean that these projects will be the construction, all project also requires local people to vote. If the vote but will not be able to build, caused the project to be cancelled.

The biggest risk is that sharp cuts in government subsidies. Wu Guangchuan original analysis over the past two years the production costs of solar cells is rapidly falling in 2012, the amount of subsidies are set according to the photovoltaic market developments before. Until then, Japan market China products are also very small, mostly sharp, Kyocera, Japan brand products dominate. Japan enterprise’s production costs are relatively high, so higher subsidies. Products make up 50% of the case in China, China’s cheap products with high subsidies have been inconsistent.

It can be predicted that Suntech and sumec, Hina group of Chinese companies planning to build photovoltaic power plant in 2015 and, if subsidies reduced, the power plant building will encounter considerable resistance.

In addition, Japan overall framework of energy consumption and environment also supports the Japan Government to abolish subsidies for PV power station. This year, the international gas prices go down, the current Asian natural gas spot price of around $ 13 per million British thermal (1 British thermal ≈ 1055 joules). Meanwhile, Australia, and Qatar and a new liquefied natural gas development projects are being launched, the international price of natural gas is expected to continue to fall. This stands in contrast to the high gas prices last year. The 2013 winter Japan the highest imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) spot prices at $ 25 per million British thermal.

Zhuo Wang Xiaokun consulting natural gas analyst told reporters, also belong to the clean natural gas power generation. Future Japan if falling prices for imported gas, then Japan will choose to use more natural gas to generate electricity. In addition, on September 10, the Japan Atomic Energy Regulation Board announced resumption of Kyushu electric power company nuclear power plant unit 1, 2nd Kawauchi, end Japan has continued for over a year “zero nuclear power” status. Chinese PV companies should watch out.

Original title: Chinese PV flocked to Japan: another pit?

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