Nomura: polysilicon or lifts fall storm

Polaris solar PV net news: the trend of tumbling oil prices over the past two weeks, United States West Texas intermediate crude oil prices from a high of 93.54 dollars breath of the end of September fell to $ 81.84, lowest since more than two years, slide is awesome. Falling oil prices, United States adequate supply of shale gas, solar energy and other renewable energy sources attractive to consumers also fell. NitinKumar Nomura analysts said in a research report released, solar energy is no longer cheaper than natural gas.

He pointed out that February 2014 HenryHub pipeline gas have risen from $ 1.95 per MMBtu in April 2012 to 6 US dollars per MMBtu, forcing gas power plants signed a power purchase agreement PPA. Compared to solar system installation costs at the same time/W dropped from us $ 3.5 $ 2.5/w. That is, after taking 30% of the investment tax credit in Canada, in areas with a high amount of sunshine, solar PPA PPA pricing will probably and gas.

However, by early October 2014, HenryHub pipeline natural gas prices will fall from 3.9 dollars per MMBtu, might make long term PPA compression of gas-fired power plant, thereby depressing new solar PPA, price or face a slump in demand and forcing the solar supply chain dilemmas.

In addition, Japan would also reduce the demand for solar energy. Fuel oil and liquefied petroleum gas prices of the local hook, price followed the steep drop in oil prices reflected, which reduces energy costs, and Japan have more time to address the issue of renewable electricity generation.

For this reason, Nomura believes that if oil prices continue to fall, then the new solar energy system installation scheme could face delays solar grade polysilicon industry will be a perfect storm. Next 6-9 months a number of polysilicon industry is about expansion. May plummet, stocks are relatively high in demand and new capacity on the line under pressure from Nomura thinks speed polysilicon price falls could come faster than expected.

Original title: Bank: oil prices hit a two-year low of polysilicon or lift the big fall storm

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