Polaris solar PV net news: in September this year, the National Energy Board issued the notice on further implementation of distributed photovoltaic-related policies to new 406 official release, the release of this policy contributes to the promotion of distributed PV direct catalytic role. Experts is expected in 2016 will be distributed PV power plant investment and ground power plant investments by Ling Feng Shui, for investors, distributed PV power plant approval process than larger surface plant improvised a lot, but in investment decision phase, you need to consider more factors, we went from distributed photovoltaic power stations site made the following analysis:
At present, domestic distributed PV investors contract energy management implementation project development, on the one hand by price discounts, rent lease are also some cooperation. However from project investment of scale view, investment distributed PV station of capacity more big, risk on more big, and risk coefficient into index proportions increased; a success of distributed PV station investment needs we from following several aspects integrated considered: (1) project potential development locations; (2) owners type select (electricity type); (3) owners due diligence survey (credit risk management) (4) capacity select; (5) inverse variable device selection; (6) site survey implementation points;
Below we try from the analysis of these aspects one by one.
A, project potential development site
From the perspective of distributed photovoltaic power plant investment, the most direct and logical = * electricity sales price is performance, where the price includes both the discount to the price of electricity owners, also contains the feed-in tariff. At present, distributed PV investors dynamic payback period for the project subject matter mostly for 7-8, return on own capital is above 30%, based on current price factors such as modules, inverters, distributed PV 1MWp roof at between 6.5-7.2 million initial investment costs. Considering depreciation, operation and maintenance, spare parts, tax data, annual tariff revenue required to reach 1.3 Yuan per watt, and how to ensure this requirement? From this point of view, our generating capacity and electricity prices into consideration.
First look at electricity generation, currently the regions because of the altitude, sunshine, clean air and other differences in intensity, each district electricity production capacity also varies with the theory.
Power output top 4 largest cities are:, Hohhot, Lhasa, Xining and yinchuan, however as of now these areas actually distributed PV power limited, is generation 4th Hangzhou (Zhejiang Province) of distributed PV installed capacity ranked in the forefront of the country.
This is mainly and directly affect the price of, on the one hand the southern area large industrial and commercial users generally are higher in the North, Such as big industry in Shandong area from 8:00 to 17:30 during the day, the weighted average price reached 0.81 Yuan, while Shaanxi area industrial 8:00 17:30 weighted average price during the day only 0.71 Yuan, on the other hand, accompanied by local governments in South China for the publication and implementation of distributed PV investment subsidies, cut electricity bills each year can exceed in absolute terms per watt light resources well in yinchuan.
This is why countries gave such as Shandong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu region more distributed PV quotas.
From national distributed PV station quota view, quota maximum of Qian ten a provinces main concentrated in East and the Southeast coastal area, these place air clean degree high, rarely by fog haze of effects, while be local big industrial and the commercial high of electric price, and place PV subsidies policy of double tube incentive, as Zhejiang, and Shandong, and Jiangsu, and Guangdong, and Shanghai, area became has domestic distributed PV power investment of first camp. First distributed PV power station financial model, has the edge.
So for the Northwest Territories, distributed PV implementation are valuable, such as Gansu and Ningxia regions, industrial weighted average electricity prices don’t only 0.6 Yuan. Cooperation on electricity price discount contract energy management assessment model does not meet investors ‘ returns on capital, where implementation of distributed PV power station construction applied to the benchmark price full Internet access, and pay owners to lease the roof of the model.
Reviews for Hohhot, Taiyuan, yinchuan, Xining and other lighting resources in the region, in cases where no local subsidies, all Internet access mode is recommended in order to meet investor requirements for distributed PV receipts.
For such as Hangzhou, and Fuzhou, and Guangzhou, and Nanning, and Xian, light resources poor of area, in no subsidies policy of situation Xia, can first implementation electric price high of commercial with to project, and considered distributed PV station of scale implementation, recommends local government introduced corresponding of subsidies policy, as currently Zhejiang area has go in has distributed PV station construction of forefront, Guangzhou also just introduced PV station construction planning and subsidies policy. Meanwhile, local subsidies, I propose to abolish the policy of subsidy to local governments for investors to get module and inverter manufacturers of local products to be procured the mandatory requirements. After all, not every component in the provinces and an inverter product quality can be guaranteed, and stand the test of the market price. Local protectionism, distributed PV power station in the process of implementing a “tumor”.
Second, owners of type selection (power type)
(Shaanxi Province published support policy have not been issued, aid was not considered in the calculation scheme, ideas and methods but is still worth learning from. ）
Analysis of this sector, we are the XI ‘ an city and Yulin in Shaanxi Province to investigate.
Shaanxi area power company has national grid and the Shaanxi Province place power company, and in same industrial park within may both national grid while has place power, like original points Metro furniture city, which a more than 10,000 more square meters of building materials home city is country network, remaining of furniture city electricity are for to electric, and national grid of electric price and place power company of electric price exists larger of differences.
Currently distributed new PV PV investors such as Hebei, Zhejiang Seiko, jinko solar and other energy companies of distributed PV project yields a minimum of not less than 12%, that is, taking into account the cost of financing under the premise of your, Project investment returns period not longer than 8.5 years, and electricity owners and cooperation mode main for contract energy management, that: (1) leasing owners roof paid leasing fee, electric price according to real-time electric price charged; (2) leasing owners roof paid leasing fee, electricity all Internet, (3) free leasing owners roof, PV station power supply owners using, electric price playing 90 percent, contract term General set for 25 years; (4) and owners established joint venture company, common investment roof station, common gets station proceeds;
In view of the current distributed access policy implementation in Xian, Shaanxi Province, the local power company links there is a lag, and at present electricity prices hit 90 percent, owners of large industrial power roof, investments less valuable. Therefore, at present, Shaanxi area using large industrial owner are not suitable for investment in local power distributed photovoltaic power plant.
Owners of commercial electricity prices for the implementation of the national power grid, including business, shopping malls, supermarkets, home improvement, cold chain warehouses, agricultural fair, 8:00-17:30 solar power during the day time, peak and flat sections at national grid electricity price range At segment mains weighted average electric price can up 1.03 Yuan each degrees electric, if according to 90 percent electric price offers, is station investment commercial charged owners each degrees electric 0.927 Yuan, plus national degrees electric subsidies 0.42 Yuan each degrees electric, is station each sent once electric, proceeds 1.347 Yuan, if station selection better of battery Board and the Group series type inverse variable device, while be science reasonable of shipped dimension measures, Xian area each w annually electricity can reached 1.1 degrees electric, is each w annually proceeds can up 1.48 Yuan, if system investment cost control in 6.8 yuan each w, even in no provincial subsidies of situation Xia, also can in 6.5 years recovered investment. Great investment value, however, supermarkets, shopping malls and trade market South of the city there is a big block, so these buildings there is no block, from the perspective of yield, and is a great value in investment projects.
For Executive national grid big industrial electricity owners,, we took Xian City a big industrial enterprise incentive description, the enterprise June 2014 electricity data following by shows, currently ilythiir industrial limited responsibility company June from 8:30 to 11:30 peak electricity volume for 140474 degrees electric, considered non-residents electric price (6% meter mention), electric price for 0.97 Yuan each degrees electric, 11:30 to 17:30 flat segment electricity volume for 261616 degrees electric, considered non-residents electric price (6% Set aside) at 0.604 dollar, the weighted average price for 0.7325. If the 90 percent price discount, Is station investment commercial charged owners each degrees electric 0.6592 Yuan, plus national degrees electric subsidies 0.42 Yuan each degrees electric, is station each sent once electric, proceeds 1.0792 Yuan, if station selection better of battery Board and the Group series type inverse variable device, PV station by electricity all can spontaneous use, while be science reasonable of shipped dimension measures, Xian area each w annually electricity can reached 1.1 degrees electric, is each w annually proceeds can up 1.187 Yuan, if system investment cost control in 6.8 yuan each w, integrated considered depreciation , Operating costs, financing costs, spare parts and so on, in cases where no provincial subsidies, 8.5 years to recoup their investments. However, most productive enterprises have holidays on Saturday and Sunday, and electricity is extremely small, spontaneous use of PV power generating capacity reached only 70%, 30% against sending the national grid, generated some of the price gains for the desulphurization power price RMB 0.38 0.42 Yuan or 0.8 Yuan and State subsidies. Return on investment period will be close to 10, so in XI ‘ an in cases where no local PV subsidies introduced in Shaanxi Province, large industrial plant distributed PV investments less valuable. This is why 2014 States only 100MWp for Shaanxi region quota reasons, 100MWp quotas under the premise of 10MWp of causes of insufficient actual installed capacity. Accounting were not considering the effects of smog above. We usually use RETSCREEN software in simulation when PV power plant generating capacity, will use NASA data related to weather in the region over the past decade to calculate ambient air quality bulletin in XI ‘ an, however, according to the environmental protection agency issued 2013 Xian sky only 138 (of which 9 days, good in 129 days) pollution up to 227 days. From January to November, Xian 6 times entered 74 a city monthly air quality ranking of Hou ten name, which, February countdown fourth, and March countdown third, and April countdown fifth, and August countdown eighth, and September countdown tenth, and October countdown Nineth, November in 18 a sky of help Xia Xian exit Hou ten name, December has 21 a pollution days, which serious pollution 8 days, Xian and will entered air quality ranking of Hou ten name in. In this climate situations, on distributed PV investment loses the significance of financial accounting.
Here we completed for late November 2013 Xian Huashan semiconductor 300kWp roof of grid-connected photovoltaic power plant. From last December to the end of February this year, the actual power output and comparing the theoretical capacity, can be seen.
First of all, horizontal and inclined plane over the past decade in XI ‘ an average daily radiation data, we use the Retscreen photovoltaic design and software related data can be obtained.
Based on the above data, we come to 300kWp roof PV power plant as a whole generating capacity should meet the following standards:
Based on above theory electricity and national 0.42 Yuan degrees electric subsidies, we in for distributed PV station market expand Shi, we will to to owners of answers is: you himself investment PV station can in 6 years within recovered investment, can reality is in fog haze weather of effects Xia, 300kWp roof PV station of December to February late of actual electricity just is theory electricity of 39.17-53.58%, this situation Xia financial model data results is needs 10 years above to recovered investment.
For residents such as residential, community, on the one hand small roof area, capacity constrained and residential electricity prices low (0.59 Yuan per kilowatt in XI ‘ an), again, the residents are mainly concentrated in the evening, the day in smaller, making PV power plant generating capacity comes from small, distributed PV current residential area is not suitable for the construction of the roof.
Reviews for XI ‘ an, and on the premise of no local subsidies, commercial property owners of electricity distributed PV roofs suitable for investment, industrial owners distributed PV roofs not suitable for investment.
In local subsidies (0.2 Yuan per kilowatt-hour, policies for 5 years) issued under commercial owners of electricity distributed PV roof is more suitable for investment, and also on Saturdays and Sundays work the large roof of industrial owners distributed PV is also suitable for investment in building distributed photovoltaic power plant.
Residential roofing distributed PV power plant currently has investment value.
Third, the owners of due diligence (risk management)
In based on station investment commercial project proceeds rate of premise Xia, on roof owners of investigation on is is important, although national energy Council No. 406, file in the mentioned in spontaneous use proportions explicit with declined Shi, can select PV power all Internet, for Internet benchmark electric price determines of all area, electricity high of area such as yinchuan, and Hohhot, city, distributed PV station investment proceeds rate effects is unlikely to, and for South some city, especially no place subsidies of city, PV power from spontaneous patterns use the Internet for personal use into all, for investors, the impact is enormous. PV potential owners of roof selection becomes more important.
First, we should choose enterprises in industries with relatively high in consumption, so as to ensure that all spontaneous use electricity that could be to dissolve. Such as iron and steel, chemicals, building materials, metallurgy, petroleum, chemical industry, machinery manufacturing, and so on. For countries not to encourage industry or industries. Roof resources and power conditions are good, also needs careful judgment. Special mention is the release of corrosive gases to panels for businesses need to choose carefully. Such as chemicals, rubber processing enterprises. While priority Saturday and Sunday also has a manufacturing business, which can effectively guarantee the spontaneous personal use ratios can still remain above 95%.
Secondly, to verify the performance of the contract of enterprise, through financial statements (listed company), vendor contract partner visits, surveys, even for single projects large projects, it can be obtained from a third party investigation into agencies such as Deng Bai paid to obtain data for decision.
Four, installed capacity;
Determination of the capacity not only to consider the roof area, needs a comprehensive consideration of load and roof plan and other relevant indicators.
In we zhiqian in Xian high-tech district for distributed PV station project development of process in the, found 50,000 square meters of steel roof, calculation down can do 3.5MWp distributed PV station, years electricity can reached 3.8 million degrees electric, 12 months in the, PV station maximum of electricity reached 500,000 degrees electric, minimum of electricity also has 200,000 degrees electric, however through and Enterprise power sector for communication Hou, was informed that the enterprise monthly electricity volume only 50,000 degrees electric, PV station spontaneous use proportions are not to 25%, PV select only full Internet access, and if there is no local subsidies, again not very good solar resource in XI ‘ an, is basically does not have the investment value of the project, we finally follow the 300-kilowatt capacity for a period of project implementation.
The second situation is, a big industrial enterprises, average monthly electricity consumption reaches 900,000 degrees, the roof has an area of 60,000 square meters, and lunch on Saturdays and Sundays, when we make install 5MWp photovoltaic power plant planning, we believe that the ratio of spontaneous personal use should be up to 96%. However, we were wrong, in fact, the business equipment 24 hours constant, day 8 hour blocks of solar photovoltaic power generation, the monthly power consumption of only 300,000 kWh of electricity, such as installing 5MWp hydropower station, spontaneous use only 60%.
Third species situation is, owners roof confirmed for 30,000 square meters of steel roofing, can using area reached 2500 square meters, owners monthly electricity volume for 400,000 degrees electric, day solar PV station power period Enterprise monthly electricity volume reached 250,000 degrees electric, we on determines has installed 2MWp, should is no problem of, can on in entered business negotiations of Qian days, owners told, factory South 20 meters just planning of 15 layer towers was batch, roof nearly one-fourth produced block, We install the 1.5MWp implementation.
V, Inverter selection;
Nowadays, Solar Inverter mode as follows: centralized inverters, string inverters, inverter multi string inverters and components (micro-inverters). Before you follow the author PV Inverter selection analysis on value enhancement strategy. In the close of the initial investment cost, distributed PV for the roof, string inverter solution centralized inverters and micro-inverter has a unique advantage, very well solve the centralized solution problems.
Six, a site survey is essential;
1, classification of roof: tile, concrete roofing color steel tile roof structure.
2, site survey carrying tools: 20 meters above the tape, laser range-finder, level gauge, compass APP and paper-and-pencil compass or cell phone, and so on. If necessary inclined roof wear slip on shoes on a safety rope.
3, tile roof and structure color steel tile roof survey
(1) ask the year of completion of the building and property ownership.
(2) roof and azimuth. Site compass measurement Canada Google satellite maps.
(3) the roof pitch. Of roofing and housing widths can be calculated with the roof pitch. Southern roofing roof inclination is greater than the North.
(4) the type of tile, tile size. Common w-type buildings include Roman tile, hollow tile, dual-slot tile, asphalt shingles, flat tiles, fish-scale shingles, Spain tiles and slates. If the tile size field is not easy to measure, you can also determine the type of tile online size after. Because the size of the tiles in particular linked to the thickness of bracket system and other parts of the selection.
(5) taking into account the occlusion of the roof. Accurate measurement of the roof around the Occluder size, later making a roof can be used with shadow analysis software modeling diagrams. Shadows on the solar panels will greatly affect the output.
(6) the opened part of the tile-view roof structure, note the size and spacing of the main beams and purlins. Tile roof hook is fixed on the purlins of the Stent System.
(7) from the project owner gets the House chart, calculate roof loads.
(8) asked whether the owners intend to install photovoltaic roof systems to the South Tower construction plan.
4, concrete roof survey points
(1) building completion year, property ownership; roof orientation and azimuth.
(2) measure the height of parapet, shadow analysis later determined can be installed using the area.
(3) see roofing, to without damaging the roofing structure principle, taking into account the bracket installation is a self (negative) heavier type or expansion bolts. Standard civilian strength of concrete roof needs to be greater than 3.6KN/m2, taking into account the short time under wind load, snow load support system of load bearing capacity of the roof is less than concrete. Install photovoltaic system architecture in order to avoid any water damage problem, since takes precedence (negative) bracket installation.
(4) from the project owner gets the House chart, calculate roof loads.
(5) asked whether the owners intend to install photovoltaic roof systems to the South Tower construction plan.
5, electrical prospecting points
(1) see into the household power supply is single-phase or three-phase. Usually three civilian Villa into electricity. Single-phase three-phase output of photovoltaic power generation system should be connected to both switches on a phase whereby more into line. Conditions allow the best to use three-phase inverters or three single-phase inverters.
(2) asks the average monthly consumption of electricity or electricity costs and major electricity time segment. As a reference for PV capacity installed in the system.
(3) see owners into the line of a total switch capacity. Consider income, photovoltaic power generation system should not be greater than the output current switching capacity. Or spontaneous entirely for personal use under the current subsidy policy gains the most.
(4) to take the principle of line easy to save, consider the installation of inverters, grid-connected location. Inverters, grid-connected cabinets for the installation location, taking into account the thermal ventilation and water resistant sunscreen questions.
Original title: PV value promotion strategy: investment perspective of distributed power plant siting