Analysts predicted that in 2015, the energy field five “Black Swan” events

Polaris solar PV net news: 2014, crude oil prices tumbled stunned markets, 2015 energy fields may also be filled with all kinds of surprises. These accidents happen they really can not say, but if he does become a reality, and certainly makes a lot of people by surprise. Here’s what columnist KurtCobb forecast 2015 energy five “accidental”:

1. the United States of crude oil and natural gas production fell for the first time since 2008 and 2005 respectively.

Momentum of the sharp fall in world oil prices has slowed somewhat, but even so, the United States still significantly reduce the price of natural gas. Falling oil prices have prompted United States drilling announced to reduce drilling operations sharply next year. However, those who have completed the signing of contract drilling companies will operate as usual, wells to be built will be completed. Rescind a contract can be costly, moreover, doesn’t take the completion of the wells have been drilled successfully, nor does it make it into production is foolish, as resulting from drilling, including future debt-servicing costs are still there. In this environment, for enterprises profit is better than nothing.

2. global crude prices close below $ 30 a barrel level.

Analysts believe that prices will only last for a short period of time, unless the global struggle with another round of recession. However, because of the Organization of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC) has repeatedly said it would maintain its current oil output cut until non-OPEC member countries, the Eagles game of chicken is expected to lead global oil inventories increase in last several months. While crude stocks increased the root cause of many Asian countries, especially China’s economic slowdown, as well as Europe and Japan stagnant. Global economic growth if there is any rebound will boost demand and push oil prices lower than today’s level rose sharply.

3. solar thermal development shows that they can solve the storage problem of renewable energy generation.

Difficulty in renewable energy is electricity storage are very expensive. Storage is very important, because on windy or renewable energy, when the sun shines, but not necessarily at a time when they need it. Solar thermal breakthroughs or approaching, which will overcome previous solar thermal temperature limit problems caused by the capture and make cheap storage, possible to load high output solar power station around the clock.

4. the Paris climate talks about reaching a binding agreement on greenhouse gas emission limits.

World Climate Conference to be held in Paris next summer, but for which the meeting of expectations fairly low. 2015 climate conference in Paris is one of the goals of reaching a binding global carbon emissions limits.

5. crude oil prices hit $ 100 a barrel before December 31, 2015.

Compared with the 2nd piece, this is the other extreme. Almost all analysts predicted that oil prices will stay low, and many people believe has now entered a new era of cheap oil. If an earlier-than-expected decline in oil production and fell far more than expected, coupled with demand rising more than expected, which led to oil prices back above 100 dollars per barrel. KurtCobb think it is more likely to occur in late 2016. But the oil price rose to 100 $/barrel above the timetable may be accelerated by many factors yet.

Original title: analysts predict five in 2015 energy Black Swan events

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