Production expansion accelerated polysilicon reproduce structural surplus

Polaris solar PV net news: effective domestic polysilicon production capacity has now reached 155,000 tons

Polysilicon prices for polysilicon production enterprise to regain confidence, even though prices fell slightly early this year did little to stop corporate production, the pace of expansion. Coupled with the current operating capacity, the next 2 years total capacity in China is expected to exceed 300,000 tons but annual domestic consumption is only about 160,000 tons of polysilicon. Judging from the present market trend, rebound to above 25 USD/kg polysilicon price is unlikely, costs $ 25 per kg will not have any competitive advantage, this part of the nearly 100,000 tons of production capacity. It follows that China’s polysilicon industry will recreate the structural surplus production capacity.

Production expansion accelerated: rose 60%

Early last year, more than more than 60 polysilicon companies in China, only four families in small-scale production, and the third quarter of this year, start-up polysilicon domestic enterprises have reached 17. Although some of the effects due to routine maintenance of the factory ship, but on the whole, capacity utilisation remained high. The first three quarters totaled 89,000 tons, effective domestic polysilicon production capacity has now reached 155,000 tons.

According to reporter incomplete statistics, 2 companies of nearly two years in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi 1 companies will adopt new plants increased by 80,000 tons and 20,000 tons of polysilicon production capacity, through technological innovation of enterprise in Qinghai and Xinjiang, respectively a 10,000-ton capacity, Eastern regions will also be increased by 35,000-ton capacity, add total capacity will reach 155,000 tons.

Coupled with the current operating capacity, the total capacity in China is expected to exceed 300,000 tons, while current domestic polysilicon consumption only about 160,000 tons. China PV Industry Association Secretary-General Wang Bohua told reporters that the 2014 polysilicon production in China is expected to exceed 130,000 tons, an increase of 60% per cent. In stark contrast with, the downstream application market complete the stated objectives at the beginning of a forlorn hope.

In active production and expansion of domestic enterprises while international manufacturers have not been idle. Germany WACKER polysilicon business there has been rapid growth in the third quarter, almost 4 times a year earlier. Even ignore it from China’s polysilicon contracts of PV companies access to more than 700 million yuan of compensation also increased nearly 65% over a year ago.

Rudolph, President and CEO of WACKER ˙ shitaodige told reporters that WACKER is located in United States, Tennessee, a new polysilicon production base will be completed in 2015 year, after achieving full capacity operation, annual capacity of at least 20,000 more tons total capacity will rise to 72,000 tons.

In addition, according to EnergyTrend analyst Gao Jiaxi said, This year October Japan de company Malaysia factory has achieved 13800 tons more crystal silicon capacity, early is expected to opened 70%; Korea OCI company is expected to next year increased 10,000 tons supply volume; hanwha chemical will added 3,000 ~0.5 million tons capacity; United States SunEdison company and Samsung precision chemical in Korea of joint venture company SMP, will using high-pressure fluid bed method (HP-FBR), capacity will by 10,000 tons increased to 13,500 tons, is expected to next year first quarter can reached full capacity target.

United States REC company also said recently that will apply the new technology of fluidized bed (FBR-B), an increase of 3,000 tons of polysilicon production capacity, is being carried out in Saudi Arabia to set up a 20,000-ton polysilicon plant in a joint venture feasibility study.

Structural surplus production capacity: almost 100,000 tonnes

Measured in 2013 global production capacity of 387,000 tons, excluding some discontinued businesses, about 330,000 tons production capacity efficiently. Further deduction 30,000 metric tons of polysilicon demand solar grade poly silicon effective capacity reached 300,000 tons. According to the current photovoltaic Silicon consumption of 5.5 grams per watt calculation, 55GW is enough to supply solar cells.

And the latest forecast from various research agencies, global PV installed capacity this year is between 45GW~48GW. Last year, the effective capacity has exceeded this year’s downstream demand, above various capacity expansion is not as “excess capacity”?

In this regard, Eagle investment management, investment director Zhang Wei said in an interview with the China electronics news, due to the influence of scale, production costs there is a gradient distribution of global polysilicon manufacturer. Most of the production costs of SMEs in more than 25 $/kg, while advanced large-scale polysilicon production costs have fallen to about $ 20/kg. Especially some established companies, equipment depreciation has been effectively amortized costs may have been less than $ 20/kg.

Labor costs, for example, while Europe and the high human cost, but because some international giants have nearly 30 years of experience in production and operation, higher labour productivity. Germany WACKER 15,000 tons of lines only about 500 people, which can achieve even less than this number may only GCL, estimates the average level of other enterprises of more than 1000 people.

Judging from the present market trend, rebound to above 25 USD/kg polysilicon price is highly unlikely. Production costs at $ 25/kg polysilicon business will not have any competitive advantage, which is part of capacity of close to 100,000 tons. Remove this section, even though the multi crystalline silicon manufacturers are moderate expansion, global polysilicon supply and demand there probably will still be balanced. So the so-called overcapacity should be a structural surplus, “does not have the competence” of excess capacity.

“At the same time, taking into account the global consumption market is mainly concentrated in China, lower import tariffs of Korea and Germany polysilicon business in continuous expansion, import duty high United States Silicon by means of tax avoidance of enterprises through processing trade imports. Imported polysilicon will therefore will continue to occupy a significant portion of the domestic market. “Zhang said.

To put it bluntly, polysilicon manufacturers expanded production capacity will eventually cost businesses still struggling with high total out of the market. Chinese Photovoltaic Industry Association’s latest data also proves this point from the side: China’s polysilicon business profitability is getting better, but part of the business at a break-even point, if not lost, business is not so optimistic.

Original title: production expansion accelerated polysilicon reproduce structural surplus

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