Lu title: polycrystalline silicon “left is King”

Polaris solar PV net news: recently, the Association Announces 2014 China poly silicon production of 132,000 tons, more than 57% from the year provide 27 gigawatts of photovoltaic cell production for China raw materials. Should be a record. China’s polysilicon production exceeded 100,000 tons for the first time, entered the era of 200,000 tons in advance.

Industry Association statistics 2014 China polysilicon production 132,000 tons, from poly Association Xin, several enterprise of capacity played see, breakthrough 130,000 tons is may of, but also should see, fourth quarter polysilicon assault imports, caused domestic enterprise sales not Chang, except poly Association Xin itself wafer enterprise can digest, other enterprise of inventory is not low of, some enterprise has has two months production of inventory, normal situation Xia should is a two weeks production of inventory.

Association had 18 companies in production, also said 16, it is not important, important is the top 4 companies produces more than 100,000 tons, accounts for as much as 75%. Liangjiawan tons of enterprise is basically overfulfilling can play another five homes around 5000 tons full load, but loads of other enterprises is not high, some companies already in the fourth quarter, lower the load, and also enterprises to stop production and repair, there is a business resumption late, only a portion of the device, there should be hundreds of tonnes.

Sales are sluggish stocks higher on the one hand, on the other hand is a thousand-ton production line efficiency is not high, even though there are 5000 tons of production capacity, production costs are not low, prices slump would not be profitable in the second half, individual small amounts for personal use can stick to the short term, but long term, upside down production costs and prices is difficult to maintain production.

Customs data have been released in 2014 of 102,000 tons of polysilicon, than 24.4% per cent. Also hit a record high. 85.2% imported polysilicon from Germany WACKER and the United States HEMOLOCK and the REC, and Korea OCI, and Korea Silicon four companies in three countries. In Europe and the United States in crystalline silicon PV manufacturing industry had collapsed after 2009, its huge polysilicon capacity is mainly dependent on the Chinese market. Together with the Chinese PV industry a few years ago and then signed long term polysilicon giant has not fulfilled the end, the Chinese Government at the beginning of the reformation in order to encourage export and processing trade policies conducive to poly-silicon imported, resulting in polycrystalline silicon imports are still high, to a large extent the domestic production of the play.

2014 polysilicon to processing trade way imports up to 72%, main is processing trade way not needs paid tariff, clearance also convenience, and around Executive policy is pine, can from United States Germany Korea purchased into polysilicon, but processing Hou of PV products can completely not began these national, more not needs began to provides incoming of enterprise, China PV products main to has Japan, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia other national, policy pine to as long as abroad door on can, don’t access corresponds to, some through near national turned a circle on can Because these enterprises imported polysilicon for the material, not in order to make the processing fee.

There is also a way to set your sights on a high silicon consumption index (such as 2008 ‘s make a solar module Silicon consumption 7.8 g/w, but in fact now do 5 k/w) so as long as the corresponding part of the product will be able to write off Customs and other small parts in domestic sales.

Department of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs also sees this aspect of vulnerability, of course, so on August 14, 2014 58th article suspended polysilicon processing trade applications, certainly after this is released for a two-week grace period, use this opportunity to surprise approval throughout a large number of processing trade, the import arrangements by August 2015.

Causes an announcement after the sharp rebound in September to 9942 tons, a record high, late in the fourth quarter were monthly record high, since the 58th, provided “with enterprises as the snap-Network Monitor could be completed before December 31, 2014.” But also through the single manual examination and approval of processing trade business documents “during the term of the contract is complete” surprise approval in late August 2014 contract period is one year after the late August 2015.

During the last years, polysilicon is the most brutal aspects of PV industry chain integration, and the base is weak directly out, step by maximizing the strong, integration does not exist, it is mainly the technical threshold of polysilicon. Backward technology, even these internationally established companies are adjusted properly stopped. Some projects of the enterprises ‘ technology level is not high, and low price relocation should be careful, because technology is not reflected in the energy and materials consumption is high, cheap is not competitive.

More main of is silicon n-flow of bed method such of revolutionary technology appeared, will full alternative existing of improved Siemens method, so last year has segment time, West North some owners got local Government of coal resources Hou was forced Shang project, but in technology route select Shang is tangled of, improved Siemens method more than 60 years to in semiconductor and solar industry made huge contribution, is expected to 10 within will completely exit history stage.

2015 has arrived, and polycrystalline silicon industry into “left is King” era, the future business is strong, and Kings with 35 wolves. 2015 with 300,000 tonnes of production (part for semiconductors) main supply years about 50 GW of PV demand. Low cost high quality silane and fluidized bed technology polysilicon accounted for more than 15%. On China’s market in 2014, China polysilicon annual rate close to 60%, if there is no processing trade imports hit will also free up more production.

Now seems, 58th, paper to 2014 late also is has effectiveness of, end of three months this a wave assault into on see have out, estimated January began on will fell, then continued to August completely ended, now situation see, China polysilicon completely has capacity guarantee domestic supply, and keep price smooth, I estimated from several manufacturers of performance see, 2015 domestic polysilicon concentrated degrees also will again improve, general production will again increased 40,000 tons, and imports corresponding reduced, especially second half of. Polysilicon in China in the year 2015 in the era of 200,000 tons. And build tons of silane fluidized bed technology.

Now we see that polysilicon prices have bottomed out in the first quarter is the traditional low season, coupled with the final quarter of last year, PV enterprises imported assault Tun, production will be reduced in the first quarter, some plants will down load down those inventories, it is estimated that until the second quarter will see a bounce.

Original title: Lv Jinbiao polysilicon “left is King”

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