Polaris interpretation: in 2014 the ten sets of data changed the photovoltaic business

Polaris solar PV net news: (press compro) in 2015, the twists and turns of the PV industry are ready. Back in 2014, is a surging of the photovoltaic industry, photovoltaic policies promoting good, photovoltaic business conditions are improving, “double reverse” storm has also boot floor. In the past year, what great event happened in PV industry? Their photovoltaic business, what is the impact? Our review in the following ten sets of data.

1, PV installed capacity goal: 14GW

In 2014, the national work Conference on energy, National Energy Board hammer out 2014 PV installed capacity of 14GW. Distributed percentage 60% is essentially the same, 8GW, ground power station accounted 40%, 6GW. As can be seen, considering that in 2013, new installed capacity of 12.92 million-kilowatt on the basis of, plus related pricing, taxation and a series of favorable policies have been issued, 2014 goals based on increased 40%.

Noteworthy is that the year of 2013 is the set policy of distributed PV, but last year distributed PV actual incremental only 8GW. After only one year, in case of supporting policies have not been fully landed, distributed PV targets in the context of lack of new installed capacity kW last year, jumping directly to 8GW, jumping massive numbers staggering, it is even more puzzling.

According to figures released by the National Energy Board’s website December 2104, third quarter of 2014 years ago, the national new PV on-grid capacity is only 3.79 million-kilowatt. From this point of view, only the first three quarters to achieve the annual program of about 27%. 2014, China’s grid-connected solar power absolute big jumps, but had developed the 2014 target for new PV may not get it done.

Comment: end of installing surge failed to “Save” the 2014 PV installed capacity. The reason is obviously too high expectations of distributed PV, ground power station construction. In recent years, photovoltaic businesses select downstream as the “Gold Digger”, moving into terrestrial photovoltaic power plants, photovoltaic industry is setting off PV installed capacity flows, and distributed PV is “Thunder and no rain”. Although the market is big, but difficulties in financing and low income are a test of distributed PV generation performance results and prospects. How to stimulate the PV industry of distributed PV incentive to invest, you will need to implement grid, subsidies, credit and regulatory policies.

2, distributed PV demonstration zones: 30

On December 24, 2014, the National Energy Board issued 3 and construction of photovoltaic-related files, requiring in 2014 PV power projects pick up nets work, promote the construction of demonstration area of distributed PV applications, solar energy development “Thirteen-Five” planning work.

For the promotion of distributed PV applications, booting social investments, added 12 new National Energy Board demonstration area of distributed PV applications, including PV high-tech zone, jiaxing economic development zone, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui Wuhu economic and technological development zone, Shangrao, Jiangxi province economic and technological development zone.

Since then, the demonstration area of distributed PV applications increased to 30. The demonstration area will be grid connected project records, enjoy convenience in terms of policy. According to the National Energy Board’s notice, 30 2015 planning capacity built of distributed PV Application demonstration area will reach 3.35 million-kilowatt.

Comment: in recent years, the distributed PV does not is not hot, but the results are not satisfactory. National Energy Board distributed photovoltaic power generation demonstration zones expand to 30, encouraging social investment demonstration area of distributed PV applications, igniting passion of the enterprises implement distributed PV PV projects. Industry is also willing to enter the local government designated industrial park, not only can enjoy relevant subsidies, the tariff for billing and business model more certainty, the risk is significantly reduced. If the Bank and insurance funds to keep up with, would be a major step forward for enterprise’s long term development.

3, PV enterprises access list: 180

Ministry have been published in accordance with the conditions of PV manufacturing industry standards first, second and third batch of business listings. Up to now, a total of 180 PV companies list.

PV enterprises through the specification conditions, will obtain export tax rebates from the Government, bank credit and other important evidence. Entering the list of the Ministry of enterprise, the future is in solar manufacturing on new or renovation and expansion project, will to a certain extent to get priority support. Incompatible with the PV manufacturing industry to regulate conditions of photovoltaic companies and projects, the product shall not be eligible for export tax rebates, domestic support policy support.

Comments: established by the Ministry of “threshold” is significant for the PV industry, PV industry in previous years through strong Government support, has been characterized by overcapacity. Since the inception of access system for photovoltaic manufacturing, domestic PV manufacturing market competition become more rational. Enterprises to enter the access list will help some technical advantages of photovoltaic companies get more policy support and rely on technological advances to reduce costs, and increase their market share, but also may lead to small enterprises are part of merger and reorganization. In 2015, the PV manufacturing industry standards more strict conditions for PV companies, this SME is a test.

4, CIGS solar cell world record: 21.7%

On October 16, 2014, Germany high tech device manufacturers announced in Beijing the Manz group, the company through a CIGS thin-film solar technology research and development partners in the area of Baden-Fu Dengbao State Centre for solar energy and hydrogen research (ZSW) through close technical cooperation, again flashed to the laboratory of thin-film solar conversion efficiency by 21% 21.7%, “21.7%” is also a new world record. This is so far the highest conversion efficiency thin-film solar technology, significantly beyond the current polysilicon solar technology to mainstream records. New world record has been Germany, Freiburg, Alex Lao Institute of the Fraunhofer Institute for solar energy systems of formal certification.

“21.7%” after the world record, CIGS thin film conversion efficiency and conversion efficiency of poly-SI cells expand 1.3% (SI records, 20.4%), and has always been known for its high conversion efficiency FirstSolar cadmium telluride (CdTe) photovoltaic battery is only the latest hit records as 21%, more CIGS technology advantages.

Comment: Although there is restriction of production equipment and technology, but the CIGS thin-film solar cells in more than 40 years of development, its research and development breakthroughs constantly compared with amorphous silicon solar cell’s unique advantage is also growing. Sometimes think CIGS are crystalline silicon’s “death” in the development. Compared to crystalline silicon solar cells, CIGS thin film solar cells with high conversion efficiency, high capacity, low cost, low pollution, low light performance is good and so on. In addition, the color of uniform and stable performance, are more suitable for building integration applications. “21.7%” the world record, then highlighted the advantages of CIGS. As CIGS thin film solar cell industrialization process of follow up, most likely will change China PV power plant only ‘ Silicon ‘ only big industrial pattern.

5, double end cutting: dumping margins 26.71%-165.04%; subsidies 27.64%-49.79%

Almost two years later, China PV industry United States second “double reverse” ruled that as double reverse to extend China’s Taiwan region, this time China PV companies find it difficult to avoid the next tariff.

United States Department of Commerce on United States local time announced on December 16, the Chinese mainland and Taiwan final calculations of crystalline silicon photovoltaic product imports: mainland Chinese manufacturers ‘ dumping margins between 26.71% and 165.04%, subsidies range from 27.64% to 49.79%, Taiwan manufacturers ‘ dumping margins between 11.45% and 27.55%.

Enterprise: levy respectively Trina He Yu-hui sunny/jinkosolar 26.71% and 78.42% of the anti-dumping duty, respectively, imposed non-responding enterprises and other enterprises involved in the 52.13% and 165.04% of the anti-dumping duties, while levy Trina solar and Suntech Power 49.79% and 27.64%, respectively of countervailing duty, imposed countervailing duties of other enterprises 38.72%. Several industry sources estimate that the ruling will affect exports of China’s photovoltaic products of nearly $ 3 billion.

Comment: compared with its predecessors, this “double” Chinese enterprises “immunity” has clearly increased. The industry’s attention in themselves, and a “double reverse” led to the “fear” emotion showed a decreasing trend, also tend to be more rational judgment. Obviously, PV photovoltaic double reverse already had courses in emerging markets, factories abroad and other countermeasures. The so-called “you live and learn”, after the “double reverse”, also made photovoltaic companies understand “eggs can’t be put in the same basket”. In addition, in the development of overseas markets at the same time, photovoltaic companies need to innovate and focus on technology innovation, enterprises also need active cooperation between, avoid unnecessary solo, and a vicious circle.

6, PV product percent of pass: 76.7%

AQSIQ announced on October 29 in 2014, antireflection glass for solar photovoltaic modules in the 3rd quarter the national product quality inspection results. The sample of 30 companies of the 30 kinds of products, there are 23 products of 23 companies qualified, sampling rate and product qualification rate is 76.7%.

High decay rate components, such as frequent quality problems is spreading PV power plant in Western China. Third-party testing organization Beijing Jian Heng Ji Zhenshuang Certification Center Deputy Director told reporters: “in the country’s 32 provinces, volume 3.3GW, 425, including large power plants and distributed PV power station’s equipment detected, PV modules there are hot spots, cracked, attenuation, etc.” According to the test, a 8MW solar power station in Xinjiang, 3178 PV module block of infrared imaging in inspection of 2,856, 19% virtual welding hot spot effect; a 50MW solar power station in Qinghai found cracked 29% PV modules appear obvious worm pattern, a 10MW solar plant in Gansu province, sampling found PV module has power sharp attenuation of up to 58%. Industry analysts said that, generally speaking, the annual decay component of photoelectric conversion rate should be less than 0.8%, but the preceding performance of PV modules is far beyond the scope of this.

Comment on: “quality” has become a hot topic in the photovoltaic industry. Power quality issues cannot be ignored in recent years, large scale construction of PV plants, if widespread quality problems in the future, it could lead to a “catastrophic” situation. In addition, the current PV quality risk management also contributed to the financial and insurance institutions are afraid to enter the most direct cause of the photovoltaic industry. PV-needed industry development standards and improve the entry threshold, in building a quality power station, so as to protect the interests of utility investors and protect the enthusiasm of grid power to guarantee an orderly development of the industry. Don’t let capital end up in the PV market.

7, polysilicon capacity: 156,000 tons

2014 PV Application market is gradually picking up, for upstream polysilicon industry is restless. Due to the current market conditions improve and demand rise in the price of domestic polysilicon production enterprises, expansion lust, have raised production targets.

China PV Industry Association Secretary-General Wang Bohua 2014 development of PV industry in China, pointed out that backbone enterprises to ship high quality, capacity utilization ratio in some enterprises of more than 85%, profitability is getting better. Less recent expansion polycrystalline silicon, wafers, cells, components are relatively great expansion; technological advances to increase capacity, higher profits and promoting investment, PV development has been gradually forming a virtuous circle.

Data show that in 2014, including Jiangsu zhongneng, TBEA, Luoyang Zhonggui, daqo new energy, CSG, China Sichuan renen silicon, and silicon industry in Asia, Yang, Dunan, Inner Mongolia ceramic ten major polysilicon manufacturers, photovoltaic total capacity reached 132500 tons, total production reached 121500 tons.

Wang Bohua said the 2014 China poly silicon production of 130,000 tons, imports of 100,000 tonnes. Start businesses increasing back to 18 or so. Started by capacity reaching 156,000 tons. 2014 China poly silicon productions from the global production of 43%.

Comment: at present, China’s PV industry development the overall situation has been “warmed”, but is not a reason to be too optimistic about the situation. Current PV market supply and demand balance is still relatively fragile, if the blind expansion, coupled with the influx of polysilicon abroad, excess capacity situation may “return”. In addition, the surplus will inevitably lead to a new round of “price war”. Polysilicon manufacturers should be aware of potential excess capacity crisis and structural adjustments in a timely manner, so as to step into “winter”.

8, cross-border investment: 90 billion

On September 29, 2014, Zhangjiakou City, evergrande and solar photovoltaic projects a strategic cooperation agreement signed by the Government. Evergrande will build the largest solar photovoltaic projects, invest about 90 billion yuan in Zhangjiakou, build 9.2 million-kilowatt solar photovoltaic power projects.

Under the agreement, evergrande will complete within 3 years 20MW distributed projects, 3GW photovoltaic projects in agriculture, 6GW ground projects.

Now, with evergrande real estate, party groups and other companies cut many traditional fields, such as enterprise after the PV industry, one finds: a power station as an opportunity, enterprises can achieve new energy transition available to investors of all ages, take this opportunity to improve your cash flow and enhance operational capability.

Comment: in the view of the industry, photovoltaic industry large upfront investment, it takes a long time to generate revenue. Evergrande’s Council, means “good companies in the industry to earn fast money down cases, made ready to earn slow money.” And we find that in recent years more and more companies enter the field of photovoltaic. It is well known that PV’s business model is hard to make a difference, and this means that future there may be an increasing number of competitors entered, and the current high level of dependence on Government subsidies, larger voice means that companies in the industry are also stronger. While big consortia have entered the field of PV will promote plant asset securitization, accelerate the policy of Government more power. Of course, cross-border investment in the photovoltaic sector, there are some risks, the slightest mistake would like the Vosges stake so PV defeated, in the end, not only empty, scrape the meat herself.

9, zhongmin investment layout PV: 50 billion

The evening of April 17, 2014, tweeting Shi Yuzhu, which signed by the Prime Minister approved the establishment of the first private company, founding meeting was held on the same day. Since then, the “vote” every attention. The morning of August 21, zhongmin investment and opening ceremony will be held in Shanghai with registered capital of 50 billion yuan, zhongmin of muscling into the cast, are photovoltaic industry known as “Wolf”.

Quick zhongmin, and founded only after 7 days, signing of higher strategic cooperation plan, was established in the new energy, cut in from the integration and operation of photovoltaic power generation projects, promote restructuring in the energy sector. Three months after it was established, zhongmin voted in the Ningxia Hui autonomous region to build the first new energy demonstration zones. On December 26, the new investment company in tongxin County in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region held a 200MW solar construction project opening ceremony.

Why is solar? Dong wenbiao said as the photovoltaic technology to improve later, photovoltaic power generation costs will be significantly reduced, while coal-fired power in addressing issues such as carbon emissions, desulfurize, costs will rise. He believes that “the next 20 years, is the most promising alternative energy solar power. ”

Comment: State Council approval, 59 private enterprises, with registered capital of 50 billion yuan, the first “prefix in” large private investment firms, have so many bright spots, the doomed people voted in the birth. Its ability to activate the three major industries with surplus production capacity? Answers to unanswered. Investors “smell fear” PV power station as the breakthrough point, intent on its next set PV leader’s ambition has been obvious clues. But, for the moment, to downstream photovoltaic manufacturing companies to survive, this burst of big fish, for peers is good or bad? We cannot know. “Private carrier” has been pulled away from the dock and, perhaps, saying: when the ship sailed into the sea–it’s become a crocodile.

10, sky-high flagging: 240 million

In August 2014, Yingli, Trina photovoltaic giant Yunnan property rights Exchange has embarked on an intense bidding war, to Yunnan a photovoltaic power station of “flagging”.

Both bidders had targeted the clouds ye new energy is worth 90%. The core asset of the company is to have the national development and Reform Commission approved the development of Honghe Prefecture, Yunnan province Jianshui County nanzhuang’s aptitude for 300 MW of PV power projects, namely “flagging”. Yun Ye new energy 90% equity reserve price of 146.5 million dollars. After both sides nearly 50 rounds after the quote, TRW, eventually won more than 240 million Yuan. According to estimates, the “flagging” price reduced more than 0.9 Yuan per watt.

It is worth mentioning that, in the past, “flagging” transactions, are often not known to the public, but this time the “flagging” transaction is Trina solar and Yingli energy in open bidding to reach Yunnan property rights Exchange, prices higher than the underlying price of 100 million Yuan, and is known as “through the flagging”.

Comment: PV “flagging” scalping emerge seriously affected the healthy and orderly development of the PV market. “Flagging” scalping will up photovoltaic power plant construction costs, and not all companies like Trina, well-funded, some PV power plant construction of the party in order to absorb the cost, may cut corners on the project, making it impossible to guarantee the quality of the PV power station, eventually led to the PV power plant operational problems are frequent. Last year, the Department of energy bursts in salmon, making PV “flagging” scalping hit phenomenon. To go one step further in the future, you will need more Government to let go, make the project entry system more scientific and rational, “flagging” phenomenon will disappear naturally.

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