Polaris solar PV net news: July 30, 2015, three of China’s most influential PV Association jointly submitted three policy documents relating to promoting the development of the photovoltaic industry, not only proposes to adjust 2020 PV installed capacity target from 100 million-kilowatt to 200 million-kilowatt, as well as additional renewable electricity price levy should be strengthened.
Just half a month later, to “manufacture of silicon based thin-film solar module production equipment and complete production lines” for the main income, known as “the world’s largest, leading technology,” Chinese film energy group, issued a profit warning. And the company’s actual control Li Hejun, following after Shi zhengrong, a flag-bearer of Chinese photovoltaic industry.
In fact, compared to cheap, stable thermal power and hydropower, photovoltaic business profitability is not self-evident. But beneath the huge electricity subsidies for a long time to feed, at the end of June 2015, China PV power installed capacity has reached 35.78 million-kilowatt.
“According to PV this year 16 million-kilowatt new generation capacity gauge only PV devices installed in 2015, will be in the next 20 years, a total subsidy of about 150 billion yuan. “The Sino-German Center for renewable energy cooperation of China renewable energy society Executive Director Tao Guangyuan said that the photovoltaic subsidy will become unbearable.
A criminologist, immediately created a mouth, and numerous. Tao Guangyuan’s calculations are reliable? PV subsidies? When was China “unbearable weight”?
Treasury and national NDRC already on PV power subsidies made has detailed of provides: for different area of ground power station, respectively implementation each kWh 1 Yuan, and 0.95 Yuan and 0.9 Yuan of Internet benchmark electric price; and for distributed PV power use Hou of remaining power, is by desulfurization coal electric Internet price acquisition, while implemented each degrees electric 0.42 Yuan of national subsidies standard, part area another has place subsidies.
Tianjin electric power to the national grid company officials told the economic reporters, although around the on-grid price is different, but the traditional coal-fired electricity price generally between 0.3-0.4 Yuan per kilowatt hour, and grid PV power required to pay an additional acquisition costs, will be granted by the State financial subsidies.
According to the National Energy Board’s statistics, by the end of 2014, PV cumulative installed capacity of 28.05 million-kilowatt, where the PV power station 23.38 million-kilowatt, distributed by 4.67 million-kilowatt, when it was generating capacity of about 25 billion-kilowatt. If not for elimination on photovoltaic building and rebuilding investment in transmission and distribution networks, and general subsidies for PV 2014 expenditure should be at least 10 billion yuan.
The next 20 years, or trillion yuan subsidy
China can renewable energy learned in the de can renewable energy cooperation Center implementation director Tao Guangyuan is wrote pointed out that: to annual added 16 million-kilowatt PV installed, and units PV power power of average electricity 1200-kilowatt Shi/kW years, and average subsidies 0.4 Yuan/kWh, and subsidies years 20 years meter; so, regardless of folding now interest rate, for only in 2015 installation of PV power equipment, will in future of 20 years in the, total subsidies 16,000,000 kW x1200 kWh/ Kilowatt year x0.4 x20 year = 153,600,000,000 yuan/kWh, or 153.6 billion yuan.
Tao Guangyuan pointed out to reporters when interpreting the estimates of the economic ground power subsidies about 0.5 Yuan per kWh, more distributed, local subsidies can not win meter. “I use 0.4 Yuan terms, is very conservative. ”
He also stressed: “subsidy when it happens, terminate, otherwise all the PV industry will face the risk of collapse. “According to the commonly known as PV” eight “of the several opinions of the State Council on promoting the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry, tariff and subsidy of the Executive term in principle for 20 years. If you then take into account the improvement of transmission and distribution network and new, within the next 20 years, “1 trillion yuan of subsidy will always need”.
Surge capacity, arrears of subsidies of billions of Yuan
However, while there are promises to pay the amount of subsidy, granted by the real situation is far removed from the.
Ministry of public figures: in 2014, the photovoltaic subsidy–the main source of renewable electricity price accounts for the additional revenue for 49.138 billion yuan, 104.5% of the target; spending accounts for 50.817 billion yuan, 96.1% of the target; in total expenditures, Central level expenditure 40.107 billion yuan, only 5.2 billion yuan of subsidies for solar power generation, not only far lower than the subsidy for wind power of 27.5 billion yuan, even lower than the benefits of biomass power generation 7.407 billion yuan.
In fact, as the Government funds a renewable electricity price attached with effect from January 1, 2012, to exception of the Tibet Autonomous Region, the provinces (regions and municipalities) levied on electricity sales after deducting the agricultural production of electricity, electricity price subsidies earmarked for renewable energy generation. But as early as in 2006, the national development and Reform Commission issued the renewable electricity price and trial procedures for cost-sharing management requiring renewable power generation project electricity price than local costs such as part of the new benchmark coal price, national power unity by imposing price additional solutions.
In the past 10 years, renewable electricity prices accompanied by a rose and rose, soared from 2006 to 0.001 Yuan/kWh to 0.015 Yuan/kWh (including surcharges levied on residential electricity consumption has remained at 0.001 Yuan/kWh), but gaps still exist.
“According to our survey of 15 photovoltaic power station operators, only their solar subsidies in arrears had exceeded 10 billion yuan. “China PV industry association President Wang Bohua at the recently opened” 2015 development of PV industry in the first half and prospects for the second half of “seminar on record.
Wang Bohua, phenomenon due to the subsidy occurs due to additional renewable electricity price collection is inadequate. He said “2014 actual collection of just more than 40 billion yuan (close to 70 billion yuan), with more than 30 billion yuan to subsidize wind power, leaving solar subsidies in short supply. ”
Although Wang Bohua and publicly available data vary slightly, but as can be seen, in 2014, in renewable electricity price additional income exceeded, spending slightly less than case, the gap remained nearly 1.7 billion yuan of income and expenditure.
In this case, Chinese Photovoltaic Industry Association, the China renewable energy society and the circular economy of China renewable energy industries Association joint submission of the PV electricity shortage and recommendation, explicitly recommended to attach the renewable electricity prices from 1.5 cents/kWh up to 2.5 cents/kWh.
Conversely, China PV industry steps towards too big. Installed capacity, which is scheduled to “Twelve-Five” the final goal of only 5GW, with the goal to improve, up to the first half of this year, installed capacity has reached 35GW generation 2014 PV power generation grew by more than 200%, but subsidies but did not achieve the same percentage growth, gap is a reason.
In addition, the national strategy for climate change research and of Li junfeng, Director of the Center for international cooperation, told the economic journalist, PV in arrears are also related to subsidies and the approval process was too complex. “Grid company collected additional renewable electricity price, handed over to finance relevant bodies to check each of a PV power plant generating capacity, should have as much money, be clear to you. That year could have been closed, results were delayed for two years. ”
Even worse is that with grid-connected PV installed capacity and the surge, China began to appear “abandoned”. According to the statistics of the National Energy Board, in January-June this year, when national cumulative PV power capacity is 19 billion-kilowatt, is less than 1% per cent of current electricity; “abandoned” when electricity reached 1.8 billion-kilowatt, at an alarming rate.
One is the growing burden of subsidies, are gradually rising on the other side of “abandoned” quantity. The photovoltaic subsidy how? China PV industry and how to go?
What is the way out of China PV industry?
“From conventional energy sources to renewable, which is already a global consensus, beyond reproach. The issue is to be discussed, under the current technology, the advancement of renewable energy should go more quickly? Many years later, to become the main energy? “The State grid Energy Research Institute Deputy Chief Economist Bai Jianhua said.
He also told the economic journalist, whether it is wind or photovoltaic, year 2000 hours the following generation of the time, five thousand or six thousand hours of coal and electricity, power density is very low. “Even coal, under the influence of peak, will also become relatively low density. Accordingly, all types of generator capacity would increase significantly, investments in transmission and distribution networks will increase. ”
German renewable energy cooperation in the China renewable energy society Center Executive Director Tao Guangyuan seems, Beijing is the most sensible approach: each year new PV installed capacity remained at a low level in order to ensure the survival of PV industry and subsidies tilted to the PV research and development, promoting the development of photovoltaic technology to significantly reduce costs. Wait until the cost of photovoltaic power generation dropped to (taking into account the environmental and climate protection factor) coal cost around, then gradually increase the annual PV installed capacity.
Industry expert who declined to be named told the economic journalist, photovoltaic industry too much expansion, but did not take into account the degree of development of core technology, and when technology changes, initial investment of sunk costs is difficult to measure. “Renewable energy generation, the biggest problem is unstable, therefore, for energy storage technology is very high. I have consulted many energy experts, no one can say, 10 years or 20 years later, energy storage problems can be solved. ”
“PV subsidy policy is defective”
Tao Guangyuan also pointed out that, although replaced by the photovoltaic power generation coal-fired power stations, could significantly reduce carbon dioxide emissions, but in the case of relatively high subsidies, solar instead of coal is not economic. “Photovoltaic can be reduced by about 0.8 kg of carbon dioxide emissions per kWh, subsidy is about 0.4 Yuan/kWh, equivalent to photovoltaic power generation costs to cut carbon dioxide emissions by about 500 Yuan/ton; now China carbon exchange traded at 30-60 Yuan/ton carbon dioxide emission reduction, moreover, international carbon trading prices only 20 Yuan/tons. ”
The comparison was a national climate change strategy and strongly opposed by Li junfeng, Director of the Center for international cooperation. “An estimated 40 billion tons of annual global greenhouse gas emissions, of which 30 billion tons of carbon dioxide, I spent $ 150 billion to buy, let people all over the world without carbon, possible? ”
Li junfeng believes that development of renewable energy, is an expression of civilization and progress, cannot be measured with money its value. “The United States a high environmental cost, coal and electricity cost the most but has not included environmental costs, led to coal-fired power is the cheapest. China should, through taxes or other means, including environmental costs. ”
“Compared to solar subsidies, I think, the subsidies for coal in China is a problem. “Li junfeng points out that ever since the 70 ‘s of last century, United States through the strict requirements of coal-fired power plants, coal use from 50% into 30%. “Access to United States when I asked their leader in the energy sector: ‘ you were out of coal-fired power plants, to subsidize it? They threw up, do not know what I mean. ‘ Out of business, and the Government have to do with? ‘ “Against China, desulfurization subsidy money, denitrification to subsidize a sum of money. “What’s behind what subsidies and eventually led to a vicious circle. ”
However, Li junfeng also admitted that China’s PV subsidy policy is indeed flawed.
“At first when price subsidies, I was one of the drafters. In accordance with Germany’s approach, in fact, PV subsidy policy is extremely simple. In addition to the price, regardless of anything the Government. From the additional fees charged to the ‘ subsidies ‘ granted, are arranged by grid itself. To be honest, apart from the power grid, who does not know how much supplementation. ”
“We are learning to Germany practice results out now ‘ unitary moth ‘. “Li junfeng said grid handed surcharge, related Department rechecked, and calculate the subsidy amount, then layers of approval. “To solve this problem, or to be returned to the simple way, to the power to do it. ”
“Financial reform” and “reform”, PV two way
“A lot of people ask me: ‘ why United States PV so cheap? Why we can’t do that? ‘ I said: ‘ there is no conspiracy here, is entirely our own problems. ‘ “Li junfeng told economic reporters, United States current PV prices 8.1 cents/kWh (about 0.5 Yuan per kWh), and until the” Thirteen-Five “period, China PV price drops below 0.7 Yuan/kWh. Such sharp price difference exists, the most important factors influencing Bank loan interest rates are different.
“American financing rate is 2% and we are 8%. “Li junfeng said, assuming a power station 10000 Yuan loans in China, year power 1200 hours, so only the financial cost of a every year is 800 Yuan, the financial cost can be as high as 0.6 Yuan per hour. “So when China PV industry 9 cents when the price of electricity sales, not to make money, and Americans are 5 cents has been able to make money. Therefore, to reduce the cost of photovoltaic power generation, the financial system must be reformed. ”
Tao Guangyuan were of the view that even if renewable energy such as wind, solar power costs down, but if the lack of scenery electro volatility responses, there still will be difficult. “By the year 2020, and situations that may occur are: one, the scenery is enough to meet the needs of power users. But even so, it is impossible to completely give up fossil fuel power generation, electricity is difficult to guarantee the stability of the system. “This means that, with the development of renewable energy beyond 2020, China’s surplus electricity is likely to occur, causing huge waste of power. How to eliminate fluctuations in scenery, is to promote renewable energy development the core issue that cannot be avoided.
Solution is not.
In this year’s “two sessions”, shortly after the CPC Central Committee adopted the reformation of electric power “Nineth”, which clearly stated: to meet the market requirements of the electricity pricing mechanism, stimulates internal vitality of enterprises, the market plays a decisive role in the allocation of resources.
Tao Guangyuan believes that establishment of a market-oriented price mechanism, will no doubt help to eliminate the excess of scenery. “Excessive fluctuation of electricity price should be, so that our industries can use them. “Not only reduces production costs and relieve the excess electricity. “Germany has begun to cancel the PV fixed price, we will from now on, to establish a similar mechanism. ”
Germany how to eliminate excess PV power consumption?
It is said that in the field of photovoltaic power generation, Germany “yesterday” was “today”, Germany’s “today” about China’s “tomorrow”.
The beginning of this century, the need for energy conservation and renewable energy development, Germany Energy Department was founded. Today, renewable electricity generation accounted for Germany’s electricity 31%, in which the photovoltaic 6.9%. However, solar power subsidies reach Germany’s total renewable energy subsidies as much as 50%.
It turns out that in 2008, Germany began to implement a new renewable energy law. Which provides that in the next 3 years, the PV on-grid prices, decreased 8%. The Germans did not expect is that very low cost of Chinese enterprises, was expected to increase 3GW PV installed capacity, results achieved the 7GW. The end result is surplus renewable electricity generation down Germany some time average price (even to a “negative Valence”).
The other hand, fixed-price policy for renewable energy Internet, fixed price and the average price difference has expanded, additional charges are directly pushed up electricity prices. “Germany now the average transaction price of only 3.8 cents per kilowatt hour, even lower than the current coal price in China. However, renewable energy surcharge attached to the cost of each unit is as high as 6.2 cents. “Tao Guangyuan said.
Meanwhile, after large-scale distributed PV grid connected, with voltage and device overloading problems network, which even affects the safe and stable operation of power grid. Germany had to cut solar subsidies while trying to eliminate the excess amount of photovoltaic power generation.
Tao Guangyuan was informed that Germany has designed a renovation and expansion of the distribution network of 9 measures. According to Germany distribution network expansion needs for Energy Department study, by 2030, Germany needs to 161,000-kilometer line extension, additional installed capacity 69.001 million VA transformer. “Germany’s experience reminds us, distributed generation measures, must be separated and not concentrated in the same area. Want us to learn from Germany’s lessons go some detours. ”
Original title: billion solar subsidy cost is? PV subsidies?