PV version of “Moore’s law” theaters worldwide

Polaris solar PV net news: Intel co-founder Gordon ˙ 50 years ago, Moore proposed “Moore’s law”, which reads: when price is constant, integrated circuit components fit on the number of statistics every 18-24 months will increase by 1 time, performance will improve 1 time. In other words, every dollar I can get your computer’s performance, every 18-24 months more than 1 time. This law reveals the speed of advances in information technology. After 50 years, this law also applies to the photovoltaic industry. At present, the cost of solar power is decreased as index.

Factors affecting the cost of solar power

Solar is a solar power project of “machine”, but its cost is less than half the total cost of the entire solar system, there is still a large part of “soft costs” such as inverters, solar panels installation costs, combinations of glass and aluminum frame for solar cell, power transmission and distribution costs. Therefore, solar panels cost down for future solar power cost is crucial. The other hand, the installation costs also affect the price of solar power is.

If the cumulative installed capacity over 1 time, then prices will follow a predictable rule. In terms of solar modules, the cost is falling at the rate of 20%. But in terms of overall cost of solar power generation system, is dropped at the rate of 16% (through reduced component costs, soft costs, operation and maintenance cost reduction, scale and other factors to achieve). This 16% means that whenever the installed capacity of solar power installed capacity at a rate of 1 time, 16% can reduce the installed price, and the price reduction rate will be faster in the future.

In the United States, solar power purchase agreement stipulated in the price of electricity in the past 7-8 years from 200 us $/MW (20 cents/kWh) dropped to 40 us $/MW (4 cents/kWh).

The price of solar power generation in the future

We are most concerned about is the future of solar power price in the end is what? This depends on the size, if solar power can now use the “East wind” has been vigorously developing, even without any subsidies, the price is competitive.

Figure does not account for any subsidy on solar power price, gold line areas of extremely high quality represents the sun light (United States South-West, the Middle East, Australia, and India part of the region, Latin America parts), light green lines represent the Sun relatively good area (United States most of the region, most parts of China, and India most of most of the region, southern Europe, Central Europe and Latin America).

This chart shows us, if solar power can expand according to the existing rate, by 2020 the world’s installed capacity reached 600GW, then no subsidies for solar power price in gold-coloured line represents the area is 4.5 cents/kWh, in green line represents the area will be 6.5 cents/kWh.

By 2028, the global installed capacity will reach 3200GW, equivalent to 16% global demand for electricity, solar power price without any subsidies in the Golden line represents the area would have been 3 cents/kWh, the green line represents the area is 4.5 cents/kWh.

According to such developments, by 2035, the solar-powered electricity prices than new coal-fired power or lower half of the price of gas, which also did not include coal and natural gas power generation cost of preventing air pollution and carbon emissions and so on.

This expected result may be a bit hard to believe, but coincidentally, the United States Energy Department has predicted that by mid-century, United States the price of solar power at 4 cents/kWh. Germany Alex Braun Hough Institute for solar energy systems are expected by 2050, European light area with good solar power prices will hit 2 euro cents/kWh.

Make believe that is almost universally recognized continue to reduce the cost of solar power. Science and technology are the first productive forces, solar panels cost is a specific technical problems. Development in science and technology, solar panels cost less, coupled with the increasing scale of solar power generation, solar power’s other costs will be lower and lower. Therefore, solar power electricity prices will be lower and lower, the fact that there is no question that, as compared to other energy generation.

Original title: PV version of “Moore’s law” theaters worldwide

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