BNEF 2016 annual global electricity costs in the first half forecast update

Polaris solar PV net news: our 2016 forecasts global electricity costs in the first half, which relates the data from our research in the following three areas at the national level: the Americas (AMER), Asia-Pacific (APAC), Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region.

In 2016, first half of global coal and natural gas-fired combined cycle gas turbine power plant (Combined Cycle GasTurbine,CCGT) of electricity costs in the Americas were down by 15% and 7%, in the Middle East and Africa decreased by 22% and 25%, 16% and 4% respectively in the Asia-Pacific region. Power costs decline in this round of largely falling fossil fuel prices as a direct result, the deeper reason is that United States, Europe and other key markets are in oversupply and sluggish demand growth under the present situation. According to our projections for 2030, United States natural gas prices decreased from $11.4/Mmbtu to $6.1/Mmbtu, Europe also fell from $16.2/Mmbtu to $10.4/Mmbtu.

However, in our system for its capital spending forecasts from $1.39/W to $1.21/W (DC), our benchmark of the global solar photovoltaic project cost estimate has cut 19% to $99/MWh. This helps solar photovoltaic projects continue to shrink and cost per kilowatt gap between onshore wind projects, which cost per kilowatt is in 2016 fell 2% to $81/MWh in the first half.

Our analysis of the cost per kilowatt is mainly based on his interlocutors on the project. At present, we do not consider subsidy cases, the world’s lowest cost per kilowatt of photovoltaic projects in the U.A.E. (UAE), for $51/MWh, lowest cost per kilowatt wind power project is located in United States, Texas, $40/MWh. However, recent auction results suggest power plant believes that part of the project will be put into production within the next 4-5 has the potential to further control costs. This round of the winning project of wind power prices down to $30/MWh, will start in 2020 years ago in Morocco serve; solar PV prices decreased to $36/MWh, will begin in 2019 years ago in Mexico service.

Data

First half of 2016, fixed axis solar PV prices decline 19%, to $99/MWh, onshore wind energy prices fell to 2%, to $81/MWh, while offshore wind power decreased by 8%, to $161/MWh.

Because future prices to fall, AMER, and EMEA and APAC region average 12% lower cost per kilowatt of CCGT power plant, coal-fired power plant 18%.

Original title: 2016 global electricity costs in the first half forecast update

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