Polaris solar network due to global environmental pollution problems have become increasingly prominent, solar photovoltaic power generation because of its clean, safe, efficient and so on, has become a universal concern and focus on the development of new industries. According to United States GTM Research figures released by market research firm in 2016, 21% to 66 gigawatts of new solar power installed capacity is expected to grow in 2015, an increase of more than 11 gigawatts. But in recent years solar energy to bring new energy development in the world at the same time, also associated electricity supply instability, weak infrastructure, slow reduction in battery costs, and many other issues.
The current situation
With the expanding scale of solar photovoltaic applications and solar cell manufacturing cost and system cost decreases. At present, the price was about $ 0.8 per watt of solar cells. Under the 2015 report on the clean energy industry in 2014, global investment in renewable energy generation and fuel at $ 310 billion, and last year, an increase of 16%, the fifth consecutive year, total surpassed the investment in fossil fuel power generation.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast in 2014, as of 2050, photovoltaic power generation capacity will reach 4600 GW, offering all the power needs of mankind 16% share, roughly equivalent to 6.3 trillion-kilowatt of energy. According to the forecast, from 2015 to 2025, the average annual increase in installed capacity will reach more than 120 gigawatts, after the year 2025 is expected to increase to 200 GW/year level.
Even so, the International Energy Agency solar power has been estimated too low. According to IEA2000-year, 15 years after, will achieve 4 times increase in installed capacity of solar power, and actually increased by 5 times. Then the IEA raised its forecast of solar generating capacity.
In addition to photovoltaic cells, solar technology development for the better. This technology is mainly used for heating water, or heating oil, and used to drive normal turbines. However, this kind of Spotlight technology only plays a small role, about 1 GW capacity each year for the global increase (relative light battery is 50 gigawatts of global supply capacity). International Renewable Energy Agency Director of the Innovation Center Astoria Graham believes that using this technology may be more effective in desert regions, such as Morocco and South Africa, and energy efficient.
At present, in some developing countries, the solar industry is developing rapidly. India Prime Minister MODI climate summit in Paris to launch the International Union to promote the use of solar energy solar power, said it would invest. China has become the world leader in solar energy industry, introduced in the first quarter of this year international photovoltaic power plant, with a capacity equivalent to France solar industry’s total generating capacity. China solar energy development is typical feature of solar energy has been widely used in large pastures, which altered the global balance of solar energy utilization, reducing the installation of rooftop solar panels.
Even though the country is very poor, solar energy can meet energy needs. In rural areas of Bangladesh with more than 3.5 million households to install solar power systems. No power area had a population of 1.3 billion people around the world, which is usually caused by not building grid systems. Solution when there is no electricity, for countries with economic downturn, solar power as the most economical and independent energy sources become more and more popular in our daily life. Future development of solar energy industry can be very optimistic.
Like other renewable energies, solar weather, solar energy utilization rate of installed capacity are factors that impede the development of solar energy, which is basically solar power efficiency is critical. Operation power up to 70%~80% of coal-fired power plants. The utilization of PV installations in the Nordic countries is only 15%, and significantly reduces the competitiveness of solar energy.
In recent years, the rapid development of solar as Germany credit under the energy transition state, but it does raise some questions. First, electricity prices rising too fast. Germany the price subsidy is via the electricity surcharge is imposed by each year Germany subsidies for renewable energies up to 20 billion euros. Second, the unstable supply of electricity. The afternoon peak in solar power generation, or factory the rest of Saturday and Sunday, renewable energy is often a glut. Third, broke the power industry’s ecosystem. Traditional power plants profit from the peak, the main part of the premium, now renewable energy will this part of the cake “cut away”, traditional power companies huge losses. To this end, Germany August 1, 2014, the Government issued the latest edition of the renewable energy law, the overall approach is to cut subsidies for renewable.
Analysts at Thomson Reuters PointCarbon United Kingdom revealed in the guardian, solar industry is expected to meet several times a low ebb. Building power systems infrastructure is used to provide stable power, at present, to strengthen infrastructure construction, overcoming the disadvantages of solar and wind energy supply instability.
Central power systems are in transition, but infrastructure investment is huge, slow completion of the works. In Europe’s plans to build the largest solar power station in the Sahara desert has fall soup, if the plant was built, or to meet European demand in 2050 years ago 15%. Disruptions due to decline of solar transmission fees is not so fast, include the cost of solar panels. Astoria Graham believes that these factors change is to limit the growth of the solar industry.
Astoria Graham said by 2050 solar power will account for 10% of the world’s electricity. In addition, at night or on cloudy days battery for storing excess energy prices are still very expensive, while battery costs are reduced. Tesla said, Tesla will in the short term for the installation of rooftop solar individuals as well as large energy companies providing cheap energy storage facilities.
Anticipate and respond to
To achieve the optimistic forecast for the development of solar energy industry, requires not only a sound energy storage systems, networking infrastructure, the need to enhance national efforts to support.
If the last 5 years solar boom marked the formation of the global sex industry, then next time the medium-term should be saying is that it’s maturity. However, due to the economic crisis persists, from polysilicon to rooftop solar PV installation demand declines, solar energy facilities is expected prices to fall further, especially for the solar industry are increasingly cautious, therefore, have overshadowed the prospect of the global solar industry.
Thomson Reuters PointCarbon, analysts predict that solar energy industry or the same pace of moderate growth in recent years, but the increase will not be very noticeable, and s-shaped growth curve too much. United Kingdom climate change Commission and United States energy information administration to prove this point. Experts said the solar industry need Government subsidies in the last 15 years, so that solar energy to compete with traditional technologies, such as fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas applications. Oil prices fell below $ 30 a barrel in early 2016, although lower oil prices slowed consumer cost pressures, but may prevent the development of solar energy industry.
United Kingdom climate change representative claimed that by 2020 solar industry may not receive State subsidies. Astoria Graham shares the view that solar energy may become one of the most cheap form of electricity in the future. But at the same time, its cheapest level depends in part on the Government policies, this will also reduce fossil energy fighting force.
But, as Astoria Graham has pointed out, there is a more optimal solution has been spread all over the world. That is, the existing technology of solar energy and other renewable energy, including hydro, wind, tidal and geothermal energy. These renewable energy sources, or variable, or constant power mode, the implementation of this technology depends on the solar cycle. For example, in Costa Rica began to use a combination of these techniques are effective, therefore, Costa Rica now rarely use diesel equipment to generate electricity. While in other countries, especially the United Kingdom, the nuclear alternative combinations mentioned above, but because of the high cost of nuclear power generation, coupled with residents ‘ concerns about nuclear safety, the use of nuclear energy has not been welcome.
Although Earth’s solar energy per hour is sufficient to meet global energy needs for a year, but the current solar energy itself is not enough to solve the problem of human use of clean energy.
Original title: global solar industry is where the constraints?