Polaris solar PV net news: for a new energy industry, and excess is not terrible, because only after the surplus will reach equilibrium, thus forming a market of supply and demand matching. Therefore, once the surplus comes constant global value roots in high-end areas, clearly more valuable than simply expand the scale of demand.
In 2015, when the industry was still struggling in the swirl of excess capacity when first to restructure the energy industry is close to the industrial revival of the other side.
Despite the challenges still faced disadvantages, but according to the report of the China Association of photovoltaic, PV enterprises in 2015, “profitability improved markedly, the top ten corporate profit margins in the double digits” PV “excess capacity” situation has improved. Heater blowing in wind power generation, based on Wind data, a stock wind turbine concept plate in 21 companies, net profit growth of 13 companies, accounted for 62%.
Every indication suggests that capacity have been the tangible result of the new energy industry.
However, in an era of Bank can no longer lie to make money, more people are keeping a calm watchful of the heart. Insiders pointed out that: “PV costs could drop by half again in the future and, therefore, should be alert to the market rally brought about by excess capacity. ”
With the century-old history of the development of industries such as coal, oil and electricity, today, photovoltaic and wind power and other new energy industry can still be classified as among the industries, its most prominent feature is that subversive new technologies, new products and new applications emerge, extend the industry chain is still continuing to expand the space, mining investment opportunities will emerge. This means that burgeoning intelligence, miniaturization, personalization and other new areas, new ideas and new formats will continue to lead the new energy industry development direction in the future.
In the context of an economic downturn, an attractive investment field has narrowed considerably, therefore, these new areas and market prospects for the new shows will often cause investors to form consensus, and have very high expectations for return on investment, which will lead to convergence of investment, this is a new industry of investment “wave phenomenon”. Flock often of their funds, leading to industry overcapacity, forcing some unprofitable enterprises to quit, eventually achieving the industry’s market clearing.
The past few years, China’s new energy industry has experienced a cycle of boom and bust and back, photovoltaic industry, for example, benefited from the Government implemented a series of policies to stimulate demand-oriented combination of, the continuing expansion of PV industry in the domestic market eventually saved all the way down. Under the specific level of economic development, the expansion of new energy industry on the demand side, after all, there is a border. Once the excess back, again offering a magic weapon for expanding domestic demand, its effect is bound to decay. Therefore, the power from the supply side, global industrial value chains constantly with roots in high-end industries, mining, its meaning may be more important.
Downstream from the middle reaches of the surplus surplus
Overcapacity crisis seemed to be further away from the new energy industry, but a few years ago, areas of photovoltaic manufacturing companies have broken the searing experience of so far are still fresh.
Borrow the common policy framework, PV manufacturing surplus was typical of excess supply. Surplus from the supply side, because in the PV industry chain development in China is not balanced and the context of the market environment is not yet mature, PV cell and module production areas with relatively low technical threshold single dash, resulting in rapid expansion of production capacity, stunting domestic market can not accommodate a steady stream of products produced, PV enterprises have travelled overseas to open up Xinjiang soil. Once overseas market expansion, and there would be excess capacity crisis.
Learn from their mistakes, the demand side for the photovoltaic industry in recent years implemented a number of incentive measures, ground power station building climaxes, distributed PV is also getting better, promoting photovoltaic power generation expansion of capacity, expanding gradually digested the supply side of the demand side of excess.
But on a PV industry oversupply of consequences, forcing the industry to be prepared–in the current market situation, if there is excess formed a new round of potentially dangerous, then it may be manifest and round on a variety of new features, namely excess application links shifted from middle reaches of excess manufacturing and raw materials.
If you look after the 2012 national policy on support for the PV industry, which are to expand the industrial chain of application requirements. Gathered in the field of production of cells and modules in the past from domestic producers, began flocking to the downstream expansion, from the purely manufacturer into a combination of manufacturing and application of comprehensive solutions.
Industrial restructuring will be accompanied by pain of survival of the fittest, but PV industry described new deal, cannot stop the chain a new battlefield in each capital and raw materials. Especially in the “Internet +” concept turned out later, galvanized a capital giants also, tries to ground power plant construction boom.
No matter how broad prospects for development in an area, a cold pattern will play a role in industrial investment: more industry investors, larger investments will lead to decreased returns on investment. For latecomers, means profit becomes thin and risk.
At present, China’s economy is still on the downward path. In that case, PV industry is facing a new reality–PV installed capacity leaps and contradictions between the power demand growth has slowed. If the downstream PV scale well beyond actual demand, on the possible return of excess risk.
High productivity mining
In economics a “smiling curve” theory: the bottom curve is manufactured, high on the left is the design and development, the right of the top brands, marketing. The implication is, products with high added value to reflect more on both ends, namely, design and development and brand marketing on the part of.
From the photovoltaic industry, regardless of excess solar panel before, or there is excess risk of lower station, at the technical level are difficult to rank among the top of the column. In other words, we always put the cost of PV industry as a mass, put together.
But this is contrary to law and market environments of industry development.
The growth of an industry is often: in the new period of industry, technological changes within the industry is intense, but adapt with diverse technologies, a wide range of products will have emerged, but productivity is generally low. Early stages of industrial development, competition among enterprises focuses on technical route of struggle, the market will end up using trial and error to select the most popular technology. Based on generally accepted mainstream technology leading products for the market, industry has matured. In this phase, the enterprise started mass production in order to reduce costs, enable products to get more accepted by consumers.
PV industry as an example. In China, the PV industry in General is seen as a technology of high content of new industries. In fact, different PV industry chain link’s technical level there is a large difference. But since its PV industry into China a decade ago, expansion of impulse has been suppressed technology innovation drive, we invested enough in technology intensive industry, resulting in the technical capabilities of the industry as a whole there is still a certain gap with international advanced level.
In the upstream, while overcapacity in Silicon, and massive imports of Silicon. This is so because China has yet to fully master the key technologies associated with the products, most domestic companies have to rely on imports of machinery for purification process, but the end result of a lack of core technology, product quality compared with foreign manufacturers still have gaps. Next, if possible in Silicon processing technology-intensive areas of research and development, and constantly improve product quality, progressive realization of import-substitution, not only gradually resolve the existing imbalance between supply and demand situation, can also reap higher profits in the future.
Middle link in the module field of photoelectricity conversion rate is to be further developed. Product conversion rates in Europe have now begun to 20%, but domestic conversion rate is stuck at 10%. If domestic products made in the conversion rates improved, even if component prices slightly higher, consolidating and expanding market share and raw materials still be in sight.
Global routes should be accurate
To achieve production capacity of cooperation on a global basis, may also provide another direction for industrial development.
In the past few years, mainland enterprises to “go abroad” has been questioned and criticized. The reason, many people equate industrial transfer and eliminate backward production capacity. Excess capacity should not be simply regarded as backward production capacity. China’s new energy industry’s major advantage is based on advanced technology capacity, due to its real capacity to supply far exceeds domestic demand, which is necessary to promote the capacity of international transfers, it is not eliminated backward production capacity overseas. Therefore, the strategy for new energy industry’s international capacity for the future cooperation, should not be simply summarized as to move excess capacity abroad, but by way of economic and trade cooperation and investment, and increase market development efforts of the countries concerned, so as to form the new demand for Chinese products and equipment, rising to promote new energy industry value chain provides an effective international marketing support.
Meanwhile, investment options, but also international production can be realized. The past emphasis on reducing costs, some companies want to set up factories in labor costs are relatively lower. The benefit of this is that investment is greatly reduced. But the infrastructure in these areas, legal and political, environmental security and problems in areas such as cultural differences, may be hidden in international cooperation capacity.
From the experience of some enterprises, through the “hugs” the collective sea, help to improve the success rate of overseas investment. Participate actively in the industrial area outside parks, industrial parks and other cooperation, to improve the overall investment and new energy industry proceeds in the form of the League. On this basis, if we can strengthen the investment environment in a series of visits, strengthen investment accuracy global capacity in cooperation or new energy industry chain will play a more important role in the adjustment.
(Author Department of the Chinese Academy of social sciences researcher at the Institute of world economics and politics)
Original title: new energy expansion fronts than deep fields