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After 15 years, and again announced five-year power development plan at the national level. Power demand continued to moderate, leaving problems such as excess wind, abandoned, coal-fired power is still unanswered, “Thirteen-Five,” power supply and demand situation is not clear … … Released by electric power development “Thirteen-Five” planning what to bring to the industry? What were the highlights? What are the regrets? In this issue, reporters invited industry experts to read reader.
National Energy Board Chief Engineer Han Shui:
Green is the main line of development
In terms of new energy, abandoned, abandoning the wind there are three main reasons: layout, grid, mediation capacity of the system.
In terms of layout, “Thirteen-Five” will be optimization of wind power and photovoltaic, was abandoned to an orderly slowdown in development, adequate scale and rhythm; second, in the central building and the decentralization of both principles, to dissolve.
In the grid, renewable energy development will allow the grid to adapt as much as possible, from strengthening renewable energy on the grid to accept and to dissolve. On one hand, efforts to increase renewable energy delivery. The other hand, increase the intensity of reform in distribution network building, hope to make renewable sources of energy in the form of distributed, micro-grid system, achieving near to dissolve.
In terms of regulation, one of the characteristics of the plan is to enhance the flexibility of the system, improvement of power system peak capacity. Will increase peak power capacity. 17 million-kilowatt pumped storage will be built, also started 60 million-kilowatt; deploy 5 million-kilowatt of peak-shaving gas; increase the flexibility renovation of coal-fired power station, and more coal-fired power peaking capacity will increase peak capacity after the reconstruction of 46 million-kilowatt. These goals are optimized through the systems engineering approach, optimization is designed to enable local disposal wind, left rates at a reasonable level. Among them, the “reasonable level” refers to control within 5%. Need to be aware of is that “5%” is also a common control, because the situation varies, so “at a reasonable level” to express. In fact, properly abandon wind up light, more renewable electricity generation can be achieved to dissolve, support larger wind power, solar cell development. Meanwhile, both hardware and software to ensure the healthy and orderly development of renewable energy.
In addition, the plan also reflects the new energy priorities. Routine, planning in the traditional sense has two main principles: to meet the planning and forecasting of demand, guarantee electricity supply according to economy of construction of economic principles to determine optimal size and category. The plan to highlight structural transformation and upgrading of energy requirements, adds a key principle, that is, the third principle–to non-fossil energy consumption in 2020 China’s primary energy consumption to around 15%. In particular, it will give priority in the process of planning in the power structure layout, clean energy, taking into account the electric power and energy balance, first balanced hydropower, wind, solar and nuclear power, and then look at the power supply can meet demand for electricity, balance, gas electricity, coal and electricity and supplying. In addition, the priority uses of renewable energy generation, but also to consider clean energy power transmission channels to maximize delivery.
We will make great efforts to improve the absorptive capacity of renewable energy, will abandon the wind, left rates at a reasonable level, in the planning of green development is embodied in the main line.
North China electric power University energy and power Economic Research Center Director Zeng Ming:
Titus can complement the irrepressible power development
Planning a couple of clear time-bound targets, including the 2018 start spot transactions before the end of the pilot, 2020 started spot trading market, completed by the end of 2018, sell-side market cultivation, and so, after experts, relevant departments and enterprise after repeated study, a demonstration to identify.
To achieve these targets still need full cooperation of the parties. The most important thing is to embody the planning authority and real power development co-ordination with each link.
Planning reflects the energy revolution under the background of development of the power industry should be doing things. Is a large cost-efficient use of clean energy, and the other is peak, the third is on the formation of new energy power system problems. When large-scale clean energy, especially with the wind, light as a representative of random, strong fluctuations increasing the proportion of clean energy, power system stochastic fluctuation will be very strong, to resist the random volatility by traditional power system planning to transition to new energy systems, and related initiatives. Meanwhile, Nineth also modified article, clearly changed in the 18th task task.
In addition, most embodied energy revolution highlights is planning first highlights the development of complementary. This is based on the energy Internet development background, improving overall system energy efficiency, energy saving and emission reduction is achieved with complementary power development.
Deficiencies are not clearly how coordination between various energy measures. I think as long as the idea of planning authority and strictly enforced, it will breathe new vitality into the modified, significantly advancing the reform process.
It is to be noted that, “West to East” is “Thirteen-Five” development of China’s power industry must face up to and solve problems. Planning the power investment and match of power grid investment through several rounds repeatedly demonstrate, concrete implementation of specific arrangements.
In addition to the construction of UHV power grid, long distance transportation, clean energy distributed generation to dissolve on the spot but also part of the planning for another bright spot. The future is a combination of centralized and distributed, high power generation, long-distance transmission of organically combined with the distributed generation to dissolve on the spot, this is the future of China’s electric power development coordinating.
If according to the scale of investments planning and development objectives smoothly, “Thirteen-Five” transportation and distributed generation of renewable development will be greatly improved.
Dean Lin boqiang, Xiamen University, China’s energy policy:
Focus on solving practical problems
Power industry’s most prominent and most major areas of concern are: abandon wind up contradictions, coal, electricity and construction, network intelligence, power share of final energy consumption, and price reform of electric power system. Six points happens to be embodied in the plan in order to solve these problems and contradictions.
Among them, in terms of energy structure adjustment, highlight the structural transformation and upgrading of the focus of planning. In 2020 under the constraint of non-fossil energy accounted for 15% hard, preferred layout, clean energy, first balanced hydropower, wind, solar and nuclear power, the difference in gas and electricity, coal completing meant 2020 non-fossil, proportion of fossil fuel generation capacity rose drop the 4%. Non-conventional fossil energy, electricity and nuclear power for a longer construction period 2020 340 million kW of hydropower and 58 million kilowatts of nuclear power are relatively fixed, also in line with expectations. Such restructuring should focus on clean energy in wind power and solar energy, their growth is relatively large. Planned solar power actually installed is still lower than the target of 110 million kilowatt of solar energy utilization in Thirteen-Five development plan draft proposed the target of 160 million kW, indicating plans for solar development took into account the absorptive problem.
Proportion of fossil fuel generation capacity decrease in coal-fired power. “Coal and electricity installed within a 1.1 billion-kilowatt power control” means 150 million kilowatt coal-fired power projects face the risk of delayed or cancelled, from the point of view of the 1.1 billion-kilowatt target is relatively severe. But if left unchecked, the “Thirteen-Five” new coal power nearly 350 million kW, and nearly half of the delta compression, control 200 million-kilowatt is not easy. Current national energy Board to establish planning and construction of coal-fired electricity risk early warning mechanism, “three” and eliminate backward production capacity, response. Large efforts to eliminate backward production capacity a few years ago, the “Thirteen-Five” have little space, according to active-duty unit behind, can be phased out only about 20 million kilowatts, more from the “three” and risk early warning mechanism. In addition, parts and reduced the motivation of the development of coal-fired power generation enterprise, needs to restrain investment impulse.
The other hand, planned to “Thirteen-Five” during the electricity demand growth is expected at 3.6-4.8%. China’s electricity consumption is highly concentrated in heavy industry, heavy industry sensitive to economic growth, through inventory factors leading to power demand peaks and troughs, power consumption and GDP growth is a significant departure from the. According to power development moderate ahead of principles and avoid power short-term on economic social development caused effect, despite has energy structure adjustment of requirements, in power system still to coal electric led of situation Xia, need developed effective of coal electric planning construction risk warning mechanism, compared accurate provides future years of coal electric supply and demand relationship, determine power incremental can consider energy-saving emissions, and meet power needs and coal electric reasonable using hours number three a aspects.
Our highly efficient coal-fired units due to low utilization hours, frequent participation in the peak, not operating in the best, is not conducive to energy saving and emission reduction to some extent. Planning of pumped storage machine, air and electricity installed capacity growth of around 10%. Especially the increase in gas-electric 50 million-kilowatt, reaching 110 million kW, gas power installed capacity will be raised to 5% per cent, you can improve the efficiency of the power system, but also conducive to energy saving and emission reduction. If, however, does not solve the issues of gas and electricity prices and profits, this is optimistic.
State grid Energy Research Institute, Institute for economy and energy supply and demand Dan Baoguo:
Energy alternatives to promote the clean development
Further planning of electrical energy of alternative development objectives are clear and expected 2020 when power replacement battery 450 billion-kilowatt. It will actively promote the restructuring of the energy consumption, promote pollution prevention.
Low levels of electric energy alternative still has a lot of potential. Energy alternative focus areas including mining, construction, transportation, living and other fields.
Electric energy alternative needs strong Government support. Energy replacement potential is great, but under the influence of technical aspects of economy, usage, power also has the alternative of difficult, requires the Government to strengthen the planning guide, introduce incentive policies to promote this work. In May 2016, eight ministries jointly issued the guidance documents on promoting energy alternatives, articulate and objectives in the field of electric energy alternative; in November, power alternative target write power development five-year plan in China for the first time; as of the end of October, State and local governments in planning, subsidies, tariff and eco-friendly energy alternative support in place policies in respect of more than 1000 items. “Thirteen-Five” electric energy alternative development, good environment, is expected to widely used from pilot to cross over.
Under the measure, considering the energy saving benefits, financial support, electricity markets and other factors and expected 2020 national grid power can be realized when alternative 500 billion-kilowatt, southern power grid areas when you can realize 100 billion-kilowatt, when the country is expected to achieve 600 billion-kilowatt.
Judging, achieving planning goals are more optimistic, there could be earlier. Energy alternatives will greatly boost form energy saving, convenient and efficient, technically feasible and widely used new power market.
National Energy Board power Secretary Huang Xuenong:
Duocuo both to rein in coal-fired power scale
Coal as the main power in China are facing new challenges: one is the decline in growth in national electricity; the second is energy structure was further optimized, future coal power to continue to make room for the development of non-fossil energy; third, coal, electricity and excess risk of potential emerging.
At present throughout the planning and construction of coal-fired power project is still more coal potential risk is very prominent, so planning “to control a 1.1 billion-kilowatt within”. Planning and prediction of “Thirteen-Five” demand has taken into account the principles of moderate lead of electric power construction. First demand can effectively ensure that the current economic and social development; second can avoid electricity surplus; in addition, you can keep coal utilization hours at a reasonable level.
Complete the “1.1 billion-kilowatt up” task targets is not easy. If we do not control, “Thirteen-Five,” coal-fired power installed capacity will reach 1.25 billion kWh more than at the end, so planning, clear cancellations and delays more than 150 million kilowatts of coal construction project.
Specifically, we will adopt the following measures: first, the planning and construction of coal-fired electricity risk early warning mechanism, into red, yellow and green alerts. This is a very strict red cannot be built and approved. Second, have started or approved building project “cancel group, sustained nuclear group, postponed a number of” “three”. Third, eliminate backward production capacity. Planning requirements and strive to eliminate backward coal-fired power units of about 20 million-kilowatt. This is a conservative estimate. Government efforts to eliminate backward production capacity a few years ago a large, easily eliminated units are basically obsolete, the rest is “tough”, but from the perspective of energy conservation or from emission reduction, eliminating backward production capacity is a must to do.
Through these measures, the “Thirteen-Five” period can achieve control in 1.1 billion-kilowatt coal within.
Guo Yanheng, Vice Director of national renewable energy information management Center:
New energy market began to take shape
Planning clear has “to 2020 new energy installed accounted for than reached 15%” of development target, and in second items focus task on proposed to “vigorously development new energy, optimization adjustment development layout”, highlights has new energy future five years in the promote energy production and consumption revolution of importance, while task also stressed has new energy production diversified using and and manpower production and consumption, focus principles, refraction out Government “Thirteen-Five” new energy policy of led thought:
A wind power project is to optimize the layout of balance: the control of “three North” area wind power development pace, moderate increase in load centers in the development of the Eastern and southern regions. Second to photovoltaic power generation project “grasping” hand PV “decentralized development near to dissolve”, distributed PV hand. Three is to increase the delivery capacity of cross-province of new energy, new energy by raising the channel configurations, and promote the “three North” area of new energy across the province to dissolve, but delivery of new energy priority will be given to the stock.
Can judge the market orientation of new energy for the next five years should be: wind power mainly in the eastern regions, distributed PV for photovoltaic market belongs to.
While, planning show has “full mining system adjustable peak capacity, more way upgrade new energy power elimination NA” of policy oriented: advance existing thermal power unit of flexibility transformation, improve system adjustable peak capacity; advance “Internet +” intelligent grid construction, encourages micro-grid form of new energy development, improve grid accepted new energy of capacity; full using existing outside sent channel of transmission capacity carrying new energy, improve new energy power of across district market trading share.
For new energy, and the landing of these policies is worth looking forward to, especially the “Thirteen-Five” period through flexibility and reform of power plant, on the “three North” area increased 45 million-kilowatt of peaking capacity, it may give these areas into an electricity rationing morass of new energy boon.
In addition, the plan also made it clear to improve the regulatory mechanism of new energy industry: one is the establishment of early warning mechanisms for investment in wind power, photovoltaic development, to guide the layout of new energy investment; the second is to strengthen industry management, information management and monitoring systems. Believe that as technology advances, new energy will be to a higher level of information, management and development of new energy sources will be more scientific and of high quality.
Deputy Secretary General of China Society for hydropower engineering Zhang Boting:
Hydro-speed adjustment is necessary
Controlled growth in coal, is to determine the “Thirteen-Five” the power indicator of the other key factors. But even within the machine control in 1.1 billion-kilowatt coal, if coal-fired power units have reached more efficient and economical operation of the annual 6,000 hours, almost full “Thirteen-Five” at the end all electricity market space. Thus, pressure reduction rate of coal-fired power capacity in China cannot be too fast, insufficient capacity of power market problems remain. Therefore, whether it is wind, solar or hydropower growth must be slowed significantly.
Specific to electricity, plans called for the “Thirteen-Five” hydropower installed capacity reached 340 million, started in scale 60 million kilowatts, than “Twelve-Five” planning production of nearly 100 million, and new construction requirements of 120 million, about about 1 time times lower. The slowdown and adjustment, is very objective and very necessary. “Twelve-Five” power market and at the end of “Eleven-Five” have been very different at the end, although our energy policy is still actively developing hydropower, developing wind and solar power, but can not solve how to make coal-fired power reducing the contradiction of insufficient and phasing, and capacity of the electric power market realities, appropriate to reduce the pace of development of renewable energy, is indeed a last ditch of possible measures.
At present, the sharp deceleration in hydropower development in China is not only the planning requirements, is the way many companies want. Because reality is huge, difficult to solve the water problem, so a lot of hydropower development enterprises to have a great investment in the future of confusion and even fear. In addition to the already operating hydropower project had to be continued, so that enterprises in the market faces an uncertain future in the development of new projects, must have some difficulty. The “Twelve-Five” plan approved operating 120 million kilowatts of hydropower, only half finished, to a large extent, a position of hydropower development enterprises.
But contrary to the conventional hydropower, planning a special accelerated the construction of pumped-storage power station. The “Twelve-Five” plan calls for a new start pumping 40 million-kilowatt, actually only about half finished. “Thirteen-Five” new plan, new hydropower starts size reduced by half, new starts increased the size of 50% pumped storage.
In the case of the previous five-year plan failed to complete the task, why increase? According to estimates is not difficult to find, if you want to protect the “Thirteen-Five” plan correctly for non-fossil sources of energy networks and play a good role, it is necessary to increase the construction of pumped storage. Makes a large surplus of coal-fired power units reduce operating hours, standby peak at the peak of power can be realized to a certain extent, but inefficient and costly. Now in the case of large coal surplus problem cannot be solved, only temporarily in this way find a way out. However, the Administration may have had a hunch that, with a surplus of coal-fired power units with peak, cannot meet the needs of a lot of intermittent renewable energy into the net. So, they want as much as possible to speed up the construction of pumping speed, creating the conditions for revolution in energy and power transformation.
I ask, whether coal, electricity and cut off excess brought the nation’s coal-fired power unit operating hours were increased to more than 6000? Can’t. Because of insufficient load capacity. Coal-electricity base load operation requires not only peak power support, a lot of wind and photovoltaic network also needs to be ensured by the flexible power peaking. However, if the current power grid can increase the 50 million-kilowatt of pumped, then to lose 300 million coal-fired power, there would be no problem.
Therefore, planning in the case of excess power capacity, increase the intensity of the construction of pumped-storage units, is in the bedding for the energy revolution and transformation of power in China.
Professional Committee of Chinese renewable energy society wind energy Secretary-General Director of Qin Haiyan, scale Certification Center:
New energy will maintain stable development
Planning in line with trends of power development in the new situation, and point out the direction for the green power industry development. As a major force in energy transformation, renewable energy in development planning was emphasized.
Proposed in the planning of new energy capacity target is a minimum goal, no limit. New energy installed capacity target is a minimum goal, is one of the basic goals of social development, wind power and other renewable energy development scale is no cap limit, is not understood by some people “in renewable energy development has slowed down under the new plan”, the new energy industry will maintain a reasonable stability in the scale of development.
Meanwhile, planning new power to dissolve, which attempts to abandon the wind, abandon light problem. First, will gradually guide the center of development of wind power to “Eastern” moved south and absorptive ability in these areas would also be “Thirteen-Five” an important increase of the wind power development in the market. Second, will rely on electric power delivery channel, in an orderly way, “three North” area of renewable energy across the province to dissolve. Third, will attach great importance to capacity-building power system, increasing system flexibility, adaptability, and strive to break new energy such as wind power to dissolve difficulties. Worth noting is that plan also seeks to develop wind power investment monitoring, establishment of an abandoned air ratio warning assessment mechanism to enhance wind power dispatching operation and eliminate regulatory.
It is regrettable that, planning from the macro level to power green efficiency pointed out the direction of development, but how to deal with the abandoned new energy to dissolve in the wind, abandoned and other issues, specific instruments and measures are still lacking, and follow-up needs to further improve relevant policies and plans of action. Proposals must actively implement the priority of renewable energy power generation system. By prioritizing renewable annual power generation plans, publicly dispatching data, current energy Bureau has introduced methods of scenery guaranteed minimum number of hours to buy as the scenery to dissolve assessment benchmarks etc, achieving renewable energies priority access and full purchase. The other hand, the established market subsidy mechanism as soon as possible. In traditional fossil energy power of internalization of external costs is not the premise of renewable electricity can not be its fair market competition. Through the “green card” system, requires the traditional fossil fuel power companies buy “green certificates”, can improve the competitiveness of renewable energy markets.
In addition, the plan also emphasizes international cooperation, promote the implementation of the “way” of national strategies. Specific to wind electric, new energy industry, can based following three a foothold: a is relies on national “area way” strategy and international multilateral, and bilateral cooperation mechanism,, steadily ordered develop international market; II is strengthening wind electric, new energy capacity of international cooperation, encourages new energy enterprise and abroad enterprise carried out cooperation; three is encourages domestic related institutions active participation international wind electric standard of developed, full with international electrical Committee can renewable energy equipment certification mutual recognize system (IECRE), international standards organization of platform role To promote certification of international adoption, eliminating technical barriers to international trade, say to strengthen global technology competition.
Concord Group, Deputy Director of the Center for strategic studies and Chief strategic planning officer Yin ming:
Adhere to the problem oriented to stimulate market activity
Planning insisted on problem-oriented, mainly from the deepen the reform, promote user-side power power production and use patterns change and strengthening the construction of urban distribution network in three aspects in response to community concern, fostering a dynamic, diverse participation, rich in bulk power markets.
Planning from perfecting power market mechanism, reform the marketing electricity side focus in terms of deployment, all kinds of reform priorities and timetable proposed, to put forward a clear signal to the market, conducive to the permeability of the concrete floor and introduction of measures to promote. The electricity market is a rare window for the next two years, many market players will gradually complete the interests of the old and new classification and establishment of ecological, of power flow of talent from within the system outside the system will become commonplace, a private capital-led “poaching” contest has begun.
Promote user-side electricity production and use patterns change, actively cultivating power to develop new business. User-side power business mainly covers close to the user’s electric power production and power utilization of both, is an important point of social capital to enter the electricity market. Planning from the distributed solar power, electric cars, with clear mandates and objectives. First of all, PV development closer to the user. Development of distributed PV in China has almost become “Huashan a way”, but the PV industry will enter a tough period of adjustment in the coming years. Second, build a good charging infrastructure, develop good price and subsidy policies and the case of suitable business models, electric cars will enter the fast track of development. Once again, with an emphasis on heat and power cogeneration and distributed, will be a great market value potential side business, strategic business.
Also, planning in distribution grid development aspects reflected has differences sex principles, North wide deep built world first-class distribution network, town area combined national new town of process and the development need, moderate ahead construction distribution network, full support “Beijing Jin JI”, urban agglomeration focus regional development; active service new energy, and distributed power, and electric charging based facilities, diversified load access need; distributed energy network, will created out many new business, and new opportunities, construction and local conditions phase adapted, and Supporting marketing electricity side market safe and reliable operation of distribution network, will play a central role, will be hosting energy Internet, wisdom, energy and other important support platform for new business development.