Solar parity grid 2030 years to compete with coal

Polaris solar PV net news: entering the new century, China’s rapid development of renewable energy. From an initial focus on hydro, wind, and to the large scale application of PV in recent five years, renewable energy and nuclear power is currently 12% per cent of China’s total energy consumption from 2020, proportion of non-fossil energy goals 15% increasingly close. Studies have shown that from 2030, renewable power systems will become the pillar of energy.

On the development of the photovoltaic industry, beginning in 2013, China became the world’s first photovoltaic applications scale. By the end of 2015, the national total installed photovoltaic power generation reached 43.18 million-kilowatt, an increase of 54%, surpass Germany as the world’s largest market for PV applications.

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Nearly two years, the United States and the U.A.E., and Mexico and other countries of the PV bidding price (PPA) continue to create low minimum reached 0.0299 USD/kWh in 2016, the second half of the PV “leader” base project, lowest bidding price has been as low as 0.52~0.61/kWh, reveals the decline of PV there is a big space. Institutions at home and abroad for PV power cost reduction potential of the research and forecast, IEA photovoltaic power generation is expected long-term cost down to $0.065 per kWh; International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) forecast that by 2025, world’s largest photovoltaic power plant investment costs can be reduced to 0.8 USD/Watt than 2015 1.8 USD/Watt cost to drop by 57%.

Integrated analysis, is expected to 2020 China PV component price can Xia down to 2.7 Yuan/peak w around, PV inverse variable device Xia down to 0.15 Yuan/w, communications monitoring and the related electrical equipment Xia down to 0.6 Yuan/w, bracket and other electrical equipment declined space not obviously; is expected to not consider storage can of grid PV system early investment to 2020 can Xia down to 6 Yuan/peak w around. In 2030, distributed photovoltaic power generation initial investment costs are lower than in 2015 is expected 21%, reached 5.3/w; centralized large-scale photovoltaic power generation investment costs will be lower than in 2015 23% early at 5 Yuan/w.

Price demand, expected by 2020 of concentrated photovoltaic electricity prices need to fall to 0.47~0.70 Yuan/kWh per cent in 2030, to 0.4~0.6 Yuan/kWh; distributed photovoltaic electricity demand by 2020 and 2030 respectively dropped to 0.49~0.74 Yuan/kWh and 0.44~0.66 Yuan/kWh, and solar power can compete with coal.

2030 installed capacity up to 500 million-kilowatt

According to China Meteorological Bureau wind solar resources assessment Center measuring, used power and regional heating optimization deployment model (EDO) integrated consider can using land (land nature), and development cost, and sent out conditions, factors, China concentrated type PV power station can development potential for 2.6 billion-kilowatt, China distributed PV installed potential reached 950 million kW, which building distributed PV power installed potential 540 million kW, other distributed PV installed potential 410 million kW.

From development scale see, in established policy stories Xia, with PV power cost of declined and can renewable energy utilization target guide system and can renewable energy power full supportability acquisition management approach, policy implementation, China solar power will continues to keep fast stable growth, to 2020 solar power Assembly machine will reached 200 million ~2.2 billion kW, accounted for all power installed of 9%, electricity reached 240 billion-kilowatt Shi, accounted for all electricity of 3% By 2030 solar power Assembly machine of 500 million-kilowatt, 20% of the total generation capacity, when the output of 650 billion-kilowatt, 7% of the total generating capacity.

From the perspective of development, by 2030 to increase distributed PV development building distributed PV, in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei province, the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and other economically developed regions increase the intensity of building distributed construction of photovoltaic power generation, industrial park, economic development zone, large public facilities such as the large-scale exploitation and utilization of roof. In Shandong, Anhui, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other coastal provinces and modern agriculture in developed area, focused on promoting the building of the fish pond water, agriculture greenhouses, along the highways and railways and other types of distributed PV. In the Southwest and the Southeast, mainly in Sichuan, Fujian, Guangxi construction of large hydropower base water light complementary million-kilowatt power generation base. In the West, in Qinghai, Ningxia, Gansu, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and other areas with UHV transmission corridor planning, construction of large photovoltaic power generation base. In Anhui, Shandong, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, combined with mining subsidence land and construction of comprehensive control of water and other forms of advanced technology demonstration bases.

Crystalline silicon will still dominate

China is the world’s largest solar module manufacturing country, r types of photovoltaic cells covering almost all cell types, with active PV manufacturing of photovoltaic technology research team and a complete industrial chain. Solar PV battery according to technology commercial mature degrees and based material can roughly is divided into three class, first class battery for completely commercial of crystal silicon battery (Crystal battery, and more Crystal battery, and IBC battery,), second class for film battery (silicon base film battery, and CdTe battery, and CIGS battery), third class battery for yet commercial of new battery (iron electric-semiconductor coupled battery, and III-V family compounds battery, and organic battery, and dye sensitive of battery, and calcium titanium mine battery, and quantum points battery,).

The industrialization level of crystalline silicon industry chain in China is strong, polysilicon production levels rising, large enterprises manufacturing energy consumption, consumption fell sharply, industry comprehensive electricity consumption has dropped to an average of 90-kilowatt/kg, comprehensive cost 90,000 yuan/ton, and reached the international advanced level, into a world-class enterprises. From a technical perspective, conventional crystalline silicon solar cell conversion efficiency has been greatly improved, in 2015, the single crystals and polycrystalline solar cell efficiency of industrialization were 19.5% and 18.3%. In 2014, a PV cell efficiency in commercial 156mmx156mm single crystal at 21.45%, in 2015 and to increase 156mmx156mm efficiency multi crystalline cells to 21.25%, breakthrough Si module efficiency 21% threshold for the first time in the world, is the highest level currently polycrystalline cell efficiency.

Photovoltaic renewable energy are referred to as strategic, the main factor is its technical progress and costs down is still a huge potential. From long-term see, future PV battery technology progress main is improve conversion efficiency and the reduced manufacturing cost, future 10 years crystal silicon battery still will occupy maximum of market share, efficient crystal silicon battery will may get more high of market share; film battery efficiency also in and crystal silicon battery competition process in the made progress; new battery potential huge, still needed as soon as possible solution key problem, will may in 2030 years Hou technology mature, achieved 30% of battery conversion efficiency and commercial production.

Business models old and new combine

2014, the national PV application model of innovation. Photovoltaic curtain wall, PV agriculture greenhouses, fish and light complementary power plants, photovoltaic poverty alleviation and other new usage patterns and business models are emerging, barren slopes of the collection management and ecological restoration and construction of photovoltaic power generation combined with the project have been developing rapidly, most of these new usage patterns in Central and Eastern China regions, close to the load side, bring new business opportunities for distributed generation.

Distributed PV business models are still not mature, there are three kinds: built spontaneously their own models, sold in full electric mode, contract energy management.

Nearly two years to emerge out of the chip, financial leasing, YieldCo and other new types of PV financing model. Overall, these new financing models is still at the initial stage, only a few pilot projects. Photovoltaic chip online leasing project financing is still small in scale to attract investors, it is difficult to provide powerful support for distributed PV project finance. With the mounting of PV of good policy, PV investment environment continues to improve, finance innovation mode will be constantly improved.

General Germany and the United States experience, it should learn from Germany in policy Bank-led investment and financing mode, setting up photovoltaic power generation special loans at preferential interest rates for PV power generation projects to provide long-term loans, and establish a stable path of distributed PV projects financing. This based Shang, again encourages PV development enterprise and financial institutions co-operation, full using itself of professional capacity, and funds strength and market experience, encourages enterprise in commercial mode and voted financing mode Shang of exploration and innovation, created out for China market of SolarCity mode, provides multiple of voted financing path; while, encourages including pension and Social Security Fund, pursuit long-term stable returns of diversified capital intervention, in promote PV power development of while develop universal participation PV power investment of conditions.

Humans will transition away from dependence on fossil energy, low carbon Green road of sustainable development, this is the irreversible direction of energy transformation. Despite development is not smooth, but China Government for promoted economic sustainable development, has proposed construction ecological civilization, and promoted energy production and consumption revolution, and commitment should climate changes, more items vision target, and in-depth carried out economic and energy power of reform process, these are will for promoted established green can continued energy system, and and construction green, and economic, and security of power system and effective of market mechanism give clear of direction Guide, while also lay solid of policy based.

(Author Department of national development and Reform Commission’s Energy Research Institute, Deputy Director, Director of China National renewable energy Center)

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